CAIRO -

Misfortunes do not come alone. Perhaps this saying applies when talking about the most dangerous crises that threaten Egyptians in the future. With the threats of water shortages following the failure of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam negotiations, there is also climate change that exacerbates the crisis to the point where it threatens the lives of more than 100 million people.

In a summer that has not been repeated for years, Egyptians are suffering in the face of a severe heat wave, exceeding 45 degrees Celsius in the south of the country, and climate experts say that this confirms that Egypt has become one of the countries with a continental climate, which will negatively affect the economy, especially in terms of agriculture, as well as For concerns about the sinking of the northern ends of the delta.

While the Egyptians are waiting for the magic key to solve the crisis of the Renaissance Dam negotiations, international studies warn that Egypt may face severe water scarcity during the next decade, forcing it to import large quantities of water.

According to a new study by researchers from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Egypt will import more water than the Nile provides if no changes are made.

Population growth and economic expansion have contributed to a strong increase in demand for water away from the usual agricultural uses, which is an important sector in the Egyptian economy, which consumes nearly 90% of the Nile River’s water, according to the statement issued by the study and published on Phys.org. .org).

food and water

But the wrong agricultural policies in Egypt over many decades led - according to the report and experts who spoke to Al Jazeera Net - to an increase in water consumption, such as the expansion of the cultivation of water-hungry crops, and the continuation of irrigation using traditional methods (immersion).

In the event that Cairo does not correct these policies, solve the crisis of the Renaissance Dam, and control the steady population growth, Egypt will be between two options, either buying water from its neighbors or importing food from abroad in larger quantities that exceed the current rate of 60%, according to the website of the Information Center of the Council Ministers.

Egypt is the largest importer of wheat in the world, as it imports more than 10 million tons, representing 58% of its total consumption. It also imports 50% of corn, 87% of edible oil, 30% of sugar, 90% of beans, and 99% of lentils. 49% of red meat and 15% of fish.

On the other hand, the study predicted that within a decade Egypt will have to import a quantity of water, which may reach the point it receives from the Nile water.

 tough choices

The water shortage in Egypt is a reality and not a future, according to Gamal Siam, professor of agricultural economics at the Faculty of Agriculture at Cairo University, where Egypt entered the cycle of water poverty set by the United Nations at 1,000 cubic meters per person annually, as the citizen’s share has reached less than 600 cubic meters since the mid-1990s. The last century, and is expected to decrease over time with the continued increase in the population and the stability of the country's share of the waters of the Nile River.

Siam confirmed - in statements to Al Jazeera Net - that agriculture consumes about 60 billion cubic meters, which is the largest part of the total water resources of about 80 billion cubic meters, which is 55.5 billion cubic meters Egypt's share of the Nile water, and 4.5 billion cubic meters Ground water, and 20 billion cubic meters as a result of the reuse of agricultural and sanitary drainage water.

The professor of agricultural economics expected that the government would have to use agricultural and sanitary drainage water 3 to 4 times in the future, pointing out the need to adopt a new policy in irrigating agricultural lands and replacing flood irrigation with sprinkler irrigation.

But Siam ruled out that the farmer would switch to modern irrigation soon for several reasons, foremost of which is the high cost, which ranges between 40 and 50 thousand pounds (a dollar equals 15.7 pounds) per feddan, and the lack of previous experiences in how to follow those methods that need calculated equations for irrigation. every crop.

He concluded that in light of these challenges, Egypt has two options, both of which are bitter: either it imports food in greater proportions than the current rate after reducing the cultivation of a number of crops that consume water greedily, or it buys water, "and I do not hope that we will reach this option," according to his description.

global crisis

But even with following the recommendations of experts and studies to maximize the use of water resources through rationalizing consumption and changing agricultural policies, and by imposing an agreement with Ethiopia on the Renaissance Dam, the phenomenon of climate change remains a new obstacle on the water and food level for Egypt.

A UN report, issued on Monday, described climate changes in the world as unprecedented and warned of rising temperatures, which United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres considered a "red alert."

Experts explained that the temperature in the world will rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius than it was expected 10 years ago, and they expected the recurrence of severe heat waves every 10 years after it happened once every 50 years, due to global warming, and drought and heavy rainfall have also become more frequently.

The Mediterranean region will witness significant changes, and is considered the "center of climate change", as it will witness unprecedented heat waves, droughts and fires caused by high temperatures 20% above the average, according to a draft assessment drawn up by the United Nations.

Among the many risks, which will result from rising temperatures, are water shortages, biodiversity losses, and food production, in addition to threatening the very vital agricultural, fisheries and tourism sectors.

New Climate Map

These climatic changes have resonated extensively in the Egyptian media during the past few days. For his part, the former head of the Meteorological Authority, Ashraf Saber, said that Egypt entered the tropical climate for the first time this year.

During press statements, Saber said that the description of Egypt's climate in the school curricula will change, and the closest description will be "hot, humid summer and cold, rainy winter" instead of "hot dry summer, warm rainy winter" that students are currently studying.

And the Egyptian Meteorological Authority revealed that this summer is the hottest in the last 5 years, as temperatures rose between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius, higher than normal rates, according to reports issued by the authority and the World Meteorological Organization.

The authority explained, in a statement, last week, that it obtained these numbers after the climatic study resulting from the database recorded from its stations in the various governorates of the Republic, during the first half of the summer.

negative effects

In this context, Khadija Anis, a researcher at the Climate Change Information Center, said that many studies confirm that climate changes will lead in the future to fundamental negative repercussions on the national productivity of wheat and corn crops, especially in light of the water crisis. She pointed to the high cotton productivity compared to the current climatic conditions.

The negative effects of climate change were also emphasized by Ali Kotb, professor of climate at Zagazig University and former deputy head of the Meteorological Authority, who expected that climate change would be accompanied by damage to many agricultural crops and the increase in their prices, as happened with mangoes and olives, in addition to its negative impact on public health. As a result, the economy as a whole was affected.

In turn, Shadi Abu Al-Maati, Professor of Climate and Head of the Department of Meteorology at the Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate, said that the continuation of the current climate will lead to a rise in ocean temperature and melting of ice, which will cause the sinking of river deltas and some coastal cities on the Mediterranean Sea, and a disruption in the climatic and cosmic system in general, such as The emergence of villages and the disappearance of others, the death of fish and other things that threaten the life of mankind.