In addition to the direct suffering that the ongoing fighting entails for the people of the country, Helene Lackenbauer is worried about the effects it will have in the long run if the Taliban take power.
- Many countries will probably withdraw their aid and this will, among other things, affect the education system, food supply and life expectancy, which will in all probability decrease.
It is probably the tragic development that we will see after these 20 years when NATO has been present.
- Right now I see no positive signs.
May force negotiation
She says there are several possible development scenarios for the Taliban's ongoing offensive.
One of them is that they are advancing to Kabul and that the current government is fleeing at the same time as the last postings are falling.
- Or you can imagine forcing the Afghan government to negotiate and then there will be a negotiation on the terms of the Taliban, she says.
"Expanded since 2014"
The offensive began after the United States began withdrawing its troops from the country after a nearly 20-year presence that began with a US-led invasion marking the end of the then Taliban regime.
- After that, they were not allowed to participate in the peace negotiations and this has led to them basically waiting for an opportunity to return, and since 2014 when NATO's combat troops disappeared, they have expanded greatly across the country.
In the player above, Helene Lackenbauer, research leader at FOI, answers three questions about the dramatic development in the country in recent days.