The movement has not told the Afghan society what it wants

Pakistani expert: "Taliban" find it difficult to rule Afghanistan again

  • Anxiety about the future grips the younger generation of Afghans.

    AFP

  • Afghan refugees at home are afraid to return home.

    AFP

  • "Taliban" is on its way to control the entire Afghan soil.

    archival

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The American writer and analyst, Nasid Haghari, interviewed the Pakistani journalist, writer and author, Ahmed Rashid, about the chances of the Taliban's return to power, after the withdrawal of US and international forces from Afghanistan. The following are excerpts from the interview published by Bloomberg News Agency:

■ Nassad Haghari: US President Joe Biden announced that US forces will leave Afghanistan at the end of next month, ending 20 years of NATO's involvement in the country.

It was reported that US intelligence agencies predicted that once the United States withdraws, the Afghan government may collapse within six months, with the possibility of the Taliban returning to power.

I have covered and written about Afghanistan for decades.

Your book, published in 2000 titled “Taliban: Militant Islam, Petroleum, and Fundamentalism in Central Asia,” chronicled the rise of the Taliban, becoming a bestseller in the West, after the September 11 attacks of 2001. You have a unique perspective on what it means to re-emerge. Taliban” in the country's future landscape.

Were you surprised by how quickly the movement has made gains since Biden's announcement?

big surprise

■■ Ahmed Rashid: “Yes, absolutely.

It was a huge surprise to Afghans, Americans and outside observers.

I believe that all parties to this conflict have made horrific mistakes.

I think the Americans gave a lot to the movement.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani was unable to unite his politicians and warlords around him.

There is a divisive situation in Kabul.

All of Afghanistan's neighbors have claimed that they want to see peace, but they haven't really helped.

The Taliban, after a year and a half of negotiations, still has not told the Afghan people what it wants.

Do they not believe in democracy, or do they believe in it?

We don't have a clue.

There is a younger generation of Taliban who may be more interested in some kind of representative government.

But there is an old guard of leaders and people influenced by Al-Qaeda.

Some of them were in Guantanamo.

They are very strict.

They do not believe in what they consider to be Western political ideas.

Flexibility of movement

■ Neseed Hagary: Are you surprised at how flexible the movement is?

After 20 years, the movement was defeated, then transformed, and is now reborn?

■■ Ahmed Rashid: The essence of the Taliban's longevity is that they have a very safe haven in Pakistan.

This was the core of America's problem, which is that the Taliban managed to renew itself.

Currently, for example, there are wounded Taliban in hospitals in Pakistani cities.

The Afghan government is unable to provide this type of facility to its soldiers, many of which are in remote parts of Afghanistan.

The second problem was, I think, the lack of a real US strategy since 2009, when former President Barack Obama sent thousands of soldiers to Afghanistan, or even before that after 9/11, when the Americans had a chance to negotiate with the Taliban.

This is what many Taliban elements wanted, but the Americans rejected the idea.

The old Taliban

■ Nasid Haghari: How different is this "Taliban" movement from the one you wrote about in your first book?

■■ Ahmed Rashid: Well, the “Taliban” that I first met in 1993, who invaded Afghanistan at the time, was very innocent, in other words, very naive.

Its elements had very little concept of basically anything except combat.

They had no ideas about rebuilding Afghanistan or how to govern.

It was not seen as a particularly pragmatic movement, but they promised to end the status of warlords and civil war.

This encouraged many people to join and accept them.

Having captured Kabul in 1995-1996, they became another party to the warlords, and began trying to invade northern Afghanistan and suppress all other ethnic groups.

They completely lost their ability to head a new type of government in Afghanistan because it took them several years to take over the rest of the country.

Once they did that and started ruling the country, they had no idea how to do it.

As for how they are different now, I think they've gained a lot of experience.

For example, they never allowed the media in the 1990s.

They are now media savvy, something they learned from Al-Qaeda.

But there are still enormous concerns about how they will be governed.

They do not have an educated elite.

Many of the second and third generation of Taliban in Pakistan grew up in refugee camps and are better educated.

But whether he will allow them to come to the fore in the Taliban regime is questionable.

censorship

■ Nisaid Hagari: The original movement was very tightly controlled from above, very centralized and hierarchical.

Is it still like that?

■■ Ahmed Rashid: It is very centralised.

But the most extraordinary thing, I think, that surprised a lot of people, is that she is very disciplined.

There were divisions within the Taliban in the mid-1990s and after 9/11.

But over the past year or two, negotiations with the Americans have led to a rallying around the Taliban flag.

They were more disciplined and unified, both militarily and politically, than the government in Kabul.

Of course, its military is inspired by the fact that it is now on the verge of invading Afghanistan again.

Communication

■ Nasid Haghari: All of these neighboring countries are now communicating with the Taliban, in part because they are concerned about the spillover of violence, drugs, refugees, etc.

Are neighboring countries playing a useful role here?

■■ Ahmed Rashid: I think the Americans missed a real opportunity earlier.

If they had involved the United Nations to gather a coalition of neighboring countries and then put a joint pressure on the "Taliban", we would have seen a different result from what we see now.

What we need is much greater unity in the international community.

■ Nasid Haghari: Can the Chinese expect the Taliban regime to provide enough stability that they can benefit from development and mining?

■■ Ahmed Rashid: Well, the Taliban went out of its way to reassure the Chinese.

I think the Taliban will be more than willing to facilitate China's exploration and exploitation of Afghanistan's minerals.

new version

■ Nasid Haghari: What is the impact of Pakistan on this new version of the Taliban, compared to what it was 20 years ago?

■■ Ahmed Rashid: It's a different kind of influence.

Twenty years ago, Pakistan was providing money, weapons, ammunition, or food, and was fully supporting and supplying the Taliban in their attacks across Afghanistan.

I don't think that is the case now, but there is a huge impact because the Taliban are, simply put, in Pakistan.

Their families, leadership committees, and incomes are all focused on the leadership that exists in Pakistan.

■ Neseed Haggari: I've been covering the topic for decades now.

How do you feel about what happened in Afghanistan?

■■ Ahmed Rashid: I am very disappointed, and I am telling you the truth.

I was there covering the Soviet invasion, the withdrawal, the collapse of the government, and the ensuing civil war.

This is a repetition of repetition.

And in the middle of this, of course, is the Afghan people, most of whom don't want the Taliban back and don't want any kind of extremist political system that will restrict their basic freedoms in education and jobs and things like that.

It was very disappointing to see Afghanistan declining like this, and the international community making so many mistakes again.

• 20 years ago, Pakistan was providing money, weapons, ammunition or food, and it was supporting the "Taliban" movement, and providing it completely in its attacks all over Afghanistan.

• The "Taliban" in 1993, which invaded Afghanistan at that time, was very innocent, in other words, very naive.

She had very little concept of basically anything except combat.

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