Israel is changing the rules of engagement against Lebanon... Preparing a war with Hezbollah or regional maneuvers with Iran?

Beirut

- Analysts agree on the seriousness of the security situation at the border separating Lebanon and occupied Palestine, after Israeli warplanes bombed locations in southern Lebanon for the first time after its war with Hezbollah in 2006, which ended at that time with Resolution 1701 issued by the UN Security Council, which obligated the two parties to terms that drew rules The clash between them, so the raid took place at dawn on Thursday outside the framework of these rules.

The bombing of the Israeli warplanes - which targeted the vicinity of Rashidiya camp near the city of Tyre, and Damascene in the outskirts of the town of Mahmudiya, which is an open, uninhabited area - came in response to the firing of 3 missiles from southern Lebanon, which no one claimed. Two of them fell in Kiryat Shmona settlement.

Accordingly, there is anticipation for Hezbollah's handling of the Israeli escalation. Experts linked it to the repercussions of the raging conflict between Israel and Iran, which observers see as Hezbollah's strongest arm in the region.

While President Michel Aoun considered that Israel's use of its air force against Lebanon reveals escalating aggressive intentions, Lebanon is awaiting an urgent complaint against Israel to the UN Security Council.

Israeli strike wallpapers

Hisham Jaber, head of the Middle East Center for Studies and Research in Lebanon, a retired brigadier general and a military expert, believes that Israel's air raid will not be the last, as long as no one claims to have launched the three missiles from southern Lebanon, but Israel deals with it as one of Hezbollah, and Iran behind it. .

The expert favors the theory of the existence of a third party that launched the rockets towards Kiryat Shmona, even if Hezbollah knew the intention to launch them, because it has no interest in recording a clear violation of Resolution 1701, one of its most prominent provisions being the area between the Blue Line and the Litani River (the place where the rockets were launched). Free from any armed men, war equipment and weapons, except for the Lebanese military and UNIFIL forces.

The presence of a third party - according to Jaber - serves the interests of those affected by the stability of the south, and believes that Israel - which he describes as a "too exaggerated" reaction - is the beneficiary;

Because it hastened to exploit its hit militarily and politically.

Jaber points out that the Israeli bombardment, despite its danger, targeted uninhabited fields and areas, and that its unfamiliar air force intervened, through which the new Israeli government headed by Naftali Bennett sought to score a point of strength, daring and rush, in contrast to the government of its predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu.

He said that Israel took advantage of the timing of its raid with its open battle with Iran, what is known as the tanker war, and the call against it in the Security Council.

In a broader context, the military expert finds that Israel's goal in its raid is to intensify the international mobilization against Iran and its allies and representatives, and that it is set in mind to obstruct the Vienna nuclear negotiations between America and Iran.

And Israel - according to Jaber - is the first to be affected by the conclusion of this agreement, and it seeks, through its strikes, to force America to include new addresses in the nuclear file, at the forefront of which are: drones, ballistic missiles, and Hezbollah's activity, i.e. Iran's activity in the region.

Analysts believe that the escalation in southern Lebanon is inseparable from the arenas of open confrontation between Iran and Israel (Associated Press)

Multiple fronts

And because Israel is in a situation of multiple fronts, according to writer and political analyst Wassim Bazzi (close to Hezbollah), whether in its confrontation with Iran in the Gulf of Oman, or because the understandings of the recent Gaza war are still fragile, after the battle of Saif al-Quds, “The Lebanese front, is the most dangerous. And the most capable of undermining the soft flanks of the Israeli entity.”

Despite the escalation on its part, Bazzi considers that the presence of Hezbollah, represented by experience and expertise on the ground, constitutes the biggest direct challenge to its security, which prompts it to exploit the Lebanese collapse, to divert Hezbollah’s resistance from the Southern Front, believing that it is preoccupied with the internal situation.

Bazzi told Al Jazeera Net that Hezbollah, even if it did not announce its adoption of the missiles, views the Israeli response as a dangerous development of the existing rules of engagement since 2006, "which may put Lebanon on the path set for the major confrontation in the region."

The political analyst points out that Israel's targeting of any of the strengths of the "axis of resistance" will be answered.

While awaiting the position of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on the Israeli escalation - in a speech expected tomorrow, Saturday - Bazzi points out that Hezbollah may resort to a response, whether on the basis of adoption or constructive ambiguity, "because it is ready for a supposed confrontation with Israel and with full readiness within the framework of the great and complementary meaning with The axis of resistance, without allowing it to draw reactions.

Escalation scenarios

Wassim Bazzi believes that Israel's skirmishes towards Lebanon are pushing regionally on two contradictory tracks: either a détente or an eruption of conflicts.

However, Hisham Jaber finds that the bombing - even if it deviates from the rules of engagement - may not lead to more tension, unless the Israeli aircraft bombed again Hezbollah centers and populated areas in the south and resulted in casualties.

It seems that Israel wants war with Lebanon - according to Jaber - but it does not dare to strike the first to ignite it, given its responsibility towards its people and towards the international community, specifically after its aggression on Gaza.

Therefore, it may "continue to provoke Hezbollah to lure it into war, provided that it begins with the first strike, in order to launch it in the position of self-defense."

In parallel, writer and political analyst Rosana Bou Moncef considers that any missile launch from the south does not pass without Hezbollah's knowledge, given its control over the region, even if it does not adopt it.

However, she sees that Hezbollah has no intention of igniting a war despite its military capabilities, "because it threatens the last pillars of its steadfastness in light of the historical crises that afflict Lebanon, specifically after the explosion of the port of Beirut on August 4, 2020, which shed more light on its regional activity."

Bou Monsef believes that Israel is seeking to take advantage of the Lebanese crisis, to rage against Hezbollah, especially as the country is experiencing a near collapse of its infrastructure.

And that Iran is also taking advantage of the situation, to fight Israel with a new arena outside its internal arena, in addition to Syria and Iraq.

And because Lebanon is months away from the Spring 2022 elections, "everyone is waiting regionally for the laying of a brick for a different political system, and the question about Hezbollah's position in it."

Therefore, the analyst rules out Lebanon going to an escalation with Israel, and is likely to continue exchanging messages with Hezbollah, "but the margin of error in their calculations is large, and the two sides may be dragged into a dangerous, unresolved war, if both of them miscalculate the targets, when bombing a raid, or launching a missile."