According to Météo-France, the gloomy summer in France is due to a "banal" phenomenon which is one "of the phenomena that meteorologists have the most difficulty in predicting". For forecaster François Gourand, this weather "spared us the scorching summer and heatwaves". "We will not have this chance every year," he said.
While a large part of Europe suffers heat waves and fires, France is experiencing gloomy weather: an exception due to a "banal" but difficult to predict phenomenon, which has so far ruled out a new heat wave, according to Météo-France .
This meteorological phenomenon "very banal" is called "cold drop", explains Friday François Gourand, forecaster of Météo-France, noting that it often occurs in Europe from the North Atlantic at the mercy of the currents.
"These bubbles of humid and cold air are among the phenomena that meteorologists have the most difficulty in predicting," he adds.
A "striking" sequence
Circulating at high altitude, these atmospheric depressions "attract the surrounding winds" and overhang "the masses of warm air located closer to the ground which they lift and cool". Water vapor in the air condenses and clouds form, causing precipitation. “What is particularly striking this year is to have cold drops in the same place for several weeks in a row,” particularly in France, notes François Gourand.
They have followed one another since the end of June, centered on France but affecting certain neighboring countries on the outskirts, such as Germany and Belgium, hit in mid-July by violent floods which killed dozens of people. Why this "sequence"? The exceptionally hot and dry air in eastern Europe and Scandinavia could "block the cold drops, blocking them in the west of the continent," says the expert.
Each month, Météo-France indicates "major trends" over three months throughout Europe.
In April, its models put forward for the months of May, June and July "the probability of a warmer-than-normal scenario" in southern Europe and most of France.
"Over a large part of Europe, the forecast has been verified," said the meteorologist.
For example, Europe experienced its second hottest July on record in 2021, according to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service.
"We won't have this chance every year"
"In our temperate climates, it is normal to have rain in summer (...) The real anomaly is the heat records in Turkey, Greece and the rest of the continent", notes François Gourand. However, heat anomalies will multiply due to global warming caused by human activities.
On August 5, France nevertheless experienced its second wettest summer after 1987 since the start of measurements in 1959, specifies the weather forecaster from Météo-France. "If we are very optimistic, the cold drops will recede this weekend and the weather will improve", relativizes the scientist with caution. "They spared us the scorching summer and the heat waves, we will not have this chance every year ...", he insists. While the heat waves are increasing, France has experienced many heat waves in recent years, with a record of 46 ° C recorded in the Hérault at the end of June 2019.