Tunisia appears to be preparing for a prolonged political crisis as a combination of internal and external support enables President Kais Saied to take more turbulent moves as he sees fit.
This is how Stratfor began its analysis of what is happening in this country, noting that Tunisian politics is in disarray and is unlikely to return quickly to normal after the end of the controversial 30-day suspension of the House of Representatives.
But judging by the events so far, the turmoil is also unlikely to lead to the major reform of the political system that Tunisians have demanded since the Arab Spring.
Instead, the events of the past week indicate that Tunisia is heading towards an extended period of political paralysis that is shaking its fragile economy and undermining the strength of the Islamist Ennahda party.
The website indicated that support from the Tunisians and promised foreign aid will help Said maintain his control during the remaining transitional period.
He also referred to Said's hint that foreign financial aid might be imminent, most likely from countries that would welcome the marginalization of Ennahda, the largest party in parliament.
The promise of such aid, he added, is another reason why many Tunisians welcome Said's dramatic actions, in the hope that Tunisia's greater financial security will help support personal finances.
The events of the past week indicate that Tunisia is heading towards an extended period of political paralysis that is shaking its fragile economy and undermining the power of the dominant Islamist Ennahda party.
Stratfor believes that a new series of anti-corruption investigations is also likely to be popular among Tunisians, and could exacerbate unrest when those in power are uprooted.
Tunisian streets remain silent after President Said's statements (Anadolu Agency)
He concluded that there are other key developments that must be monitored in the coming weeks to gauge the length of the transition period in Tunisia, including the following:
Political Reappointments
: The rapid replacement of the political leaders recently sacked by Saeed, including the Prime Minister, would signal an expected end to the current political crisis.
Popular support
: Positive feelings among the Tunisian public towards Said's decisions will enable him to continue taking unilateral measures that will prolong the political crisis, while weak support will pressure him to end it.
Economic health
: Sharp rises in business activity and consumption in Tunisia indicate confidence in Said's leadership, while the downturn suggests otherwise.
Political Dialogue
: Dialogue between other powerful institutions, including parties such as Ennahda and trade unions, indicates that leaders are working proactively to end a period of political uncertainty, while faltering negotiations indicate further paralysis.