In his foreign policy, he focuses on relations with neighboring countries

A major era begins today in Iran... with the priority of the economy and the "nuclear" talks

  • The understanding between Raisi and Khamenei may not last.

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  • The nuclear negotiations in Vienna are facing difficulties that are likely to increase.

    archival

  • Iranian voters aspire to put an end to their problems.

    EPA

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Today, the hard-line conservative Ebrahim Raisi will officially assume the position of President of the Republic of Iran, succeeding moderate Hassan Rouhani, to begin a four-year term.

Raisi, the winner of the June elections, will be officially inaugurated today during a ceremony in which the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, endorses the "rule of the presidency."

On Thursday, Raisi, 60, will take the constitutional oath before the Shura Council (parliament), which is dominated by conservatives, in a step that will be followed by presenting the names of his candidates for ministerial positions, in order to gain the confidence of MPs in their nomination.

The former head of the judiciary won about 62% of the votes in the first round of the elections, which he ran in the absence of any serious competitor, and witnessed a participation rate of 48.8%, the lowest in a presidential entitlement since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979.

This will end the Rouhani era, which consisted of two consecutive terms (as of 2013), and witnessed a policy of relative openness to the West, the most prominent of which was the conclusion of the 2015 Vienna Agreement on the nuclear program with six major powers (the United States, Britain, France, China, Russia, and Germany ).

The agreement allowed the lifting of sanctions on Iran, in return for curbing its nuclear activities and ensuring the peacefulness of its programme.

But its effects have almost become obsolete since former US President Donald Trump decided to unilaterally withdraw his country from it in 2018, and re-impose sanctions on Tehran, which negatively affected its economy.

Addressing the economic and social crisis mainly due to the sanctions, and its consequences exacerbated by the “Covid-19” pandemic, will be the first task of my president, who raised during the 2021 elections, as in 2017, when he lost to Rouhani, the two slogans of defending the marginalized classes and fighting corruption.

"Its main (main) objective will be to improve the economic situation by strengthening economic relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and neighboring countries," said Clement Terme, a researcher at the European University Institute in Italy, by "establishing an economic system that protects Iran's economic growth." of the American political options.

Rouhani was 'too perfect'

The researcher specializing in Iranian affairs adds that through this approach, "lifting US sanctions becomes a priority goal, but for a qualitative improvement and growth in the volume of trade exchanges between Iran and non-Western countries on the international scene", such as Russia, China and neighboring countries.

During the past years, especially the winter of 2017-2018 and November 2019, Iran witnessed protests against an economic background, which the authorities adopted harshness in dealing with.

The province of Khuzestan (southwest) witnessed protests during July, against the backdrop of water scarcity.

This was accompanied by power cuts in Tehran and major cities, which the authorities attribute to reasons, including increased demand and a lack of water resources for power generation.

Hardline conservatives who view the West in general and the United States in particular with suspicion have often criticized Rouhani for over-reliance on the outcome of the nuclear deal, and have repeatedly called for a focus on domestic efforts to limit the effects of sanctions.

"Rouhani was very idealistic about his relationship with the West," says reformist economist Saeed Laylaz, who is close to the outgoing president.

He believed that he would be able (through it) to quickly solve all the problems of the country in the short term.”

"It does not seem that the same is true of Mr. Raisi," he added.

No trust in the West

After his election, Raisi stressed that the priority of his foreign policy is relations with neighboring countries.

He will take office while Iran and the major powers, with indirect US participation, are engaged in talks to revive the nuclear agreement through a settlement that lifts US sanctions and returns Washington to it, in exchange for Iran's return to abiding by its nuclear commitments, which it gradually retreated from a year after Washington's withdrawal.

US President Joe Biden, who took over as Trump's successor in early 2021, expressed his willingness to return to the agreement.

Six rounds of talks were held in Vienna between April and June, without specifying a new date.

Iranian officials stressed that negotiations will not be completed before Raisi takes office.

Terem believes that the postponement of the resumption of talks has several reasons from the Iranian perspective, including "to show the American side that there is no urgency in Tehran to reach a quick settlement."

Another reason, according to Terem, is "the internal politics and the new conservative government's desire to prove its ability to obtain a better agreement than the previous government."

In his last meeting with its members, on Wednesday, Khamenei considered that the experience of the Rouhani government proved that “trusting the West does not work,” according to a statement published on his website.

The Supreme Leader, who has the final say in the country's supreme policies, indicated that Washington linked its return to the agreement with subsequent discussions related to Iran's missile program and regional issues, which Tehran had previously refused to include in nuclear discussions.

Raisi, who is considered close to Khamenei, had previously confirmed that he would support talks that would achieve "results" for the people, but would not allow "negotiations for the sake of negotiation."

Laylaz believes that “the fate of the nuclear agreement” is one of the factors affecting the solution to the economic crisis, considering that the current “uncertainty” regarding this file is “harmful, and it will be more harmful if Iran announces that it will not negotiate, and consequently the sanctions will remain.”

But it is likely not to reach this limit "because Iran and the United States are unable to maintain the status quo, and the two sides must reach a settlement."

• During the past years, especially the winter of 2017-2018 and November 2019, Iran witnessed protests against an economic background, which the authorities adopted severity in dealing with.

• Addressing the economic and social crisis, mainly due to the sanctions and the “Covid-19” pandemic, will be the first task of my president, who raised during the 2021 elections, as in 2017, the two slogans of defending the marginalized classes and fighting corruption.

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