China News Agency, Berlin, July 31 (Reporter Peng Dawei) The latest research report released by the well-known German think tank Kiel Institute of World Economics on the 30th shows that if the EU is "decoupled" from its external economic partners, it will face hundreds of billions of dollars per year. The economic loss of the euro, and the mere "decoupling" of the Chinese alone will cause the EU to lose at least 130 billion euros per year, which is equivalent to 0.8% of the EU's annual gross product (GDP).

The author of the report stated that this will cause a significant deterioration in the standard of living of the people in EU countries, and that everything possible should be done to avoid “decoupling”.

　　The Kiel Institute for World Economics (IfW Kiel) is one of the most influential economic research institutions in Germany.

The research report entitled "Decoupling Europe", released on the same day, was led by the director of the institute, Felbermeier.

　　The report pointed out that the supply chain bottleneck caused by the new crown crisis has heated up discussions within the EU on strengthening economic autonomy and promoting the return of value chains.

The report simulates the scenario of “the EU doubles its non-tariff trade barriers (NTBs) to promote local production” and concludes that if the EU unilaterally “decouples” from its external markets, the EU will be permanent Loss of about 580 billion euros in revenue per year (according to the 2019 GDP price-adjusted level) or a GDP decline of 3.5%; and if the "decoupled" countries take reciprocal countermeasures, the EU will face losses of 870 billion euros , Which is equivalent to a decline in GDP of 5.3 percentage points.

　　The report also pointed out that if the EU unilaterally doubles its trade barriers to China, it will cost the EU 130 billion euros a year, equivalent to 0.8% of EU GDP; and if China conducts reciprocal countermeasures, the EU will face losses. Will reach 170 billion euros, about 1% of GDP.

　　Alexander Sandkamp, ​​one of the authors of the report and an international trade expert at the Kiel Institute of World Economics, said that even if the EU is only partially “decoupled” from the international supply chain, this will also cause the people within the EU and its trading partners to become distracted. People's living standards have deteriorated significantly, so every effort should be made to avoid this situation.

　　Sandkamp pointed out that, compared with choosing isolationism, the EU should adopt a series of measures to make its economy more resilient in times of crisis in international trade in goods, including supply chain diversification, promotion of recycling, and improved warehouse management. , Instead of isolating oneself from the international value chain.

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