According to the director of the Frankfurt University Hospital, Hessen can predict the number of Covid cases quite precisely.
Hesse has a more complex forecast system than other federal states, said Jürgen Graf, medical director of the university hospital.
Graf also heads the planning staff for inpatient care at the Hessian Ministry of Social Affairs and in this role creates the framework for the care of Covid-19 patients in hospitals across the country.
A project team from the University Medicine Network creates this “ensemble forecast” once a week.
"It's like the weather forecast," Graf explained to the German press agency.
The amount of data is so extensive and the models are so complex that the mainframes are occupied with it for at least half a day.
For example, the current occupancy figures of the hospitals, the results of the corona tests from the districts and the R value, which indicates how quickly the virus is spreading, are fed in.
Mathematical models then use this actual data to calculate the forecast for the next week.
"This enables us to predict developments with great precision and to plan and control our capacities in Hesse," said Graf.
More data than has to be reported nationwide
With a “hospitalization ordinance”, hospitals all over Germany were obliged to provide more data on Covid-19 patients than before - for example not only those in intensive care units, but all hospital admissions. This regulation is "to be seen as positive overall," said Graf, "but it is not necessary for Hesse". More data flowed into the Hessian forecast than has to be reported nationwide.
In addition, the federal government is currently still lacking "an action arm that derives concrete actions from the findings," said Graf. In Hesse, conclusions would be drawn immediately from the forecasts - for example, reserve numbers for clinics were increased or patients were redistributed in order to ensure emergency care across the board. "In order to actually guarantee this for all hospitals, it is not only necessary to make forecasts and figures, but above all to network, coordinate and communicate," said Graf.