(International observation) What are the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Afghanistan?

  China News Agency, Beijing, July 30th, title: What are the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Afghanistan?

  China News Agency reporter Ma Jiajia

  Chinese State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi recently met with Baradar, the head of the Afghan Taliban Political Committee visiting China, in Tianjin.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said that boosting the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan is China’s main purpose for receiving the visit of the Taliban delegation from Afghanistan.

In this regard, Chinese experts pointed out that the launch of peace talks between the two parties in the conflict in Afghanistan has sent positive signals, but it is difficult to make substantial progress in the short term.

China's promotion of the process of reconciliation with Afghanistan is not only in China's interest, but also a manifestation of its role as a responsible major power.

 U.S. hastily withdrawing troops triggers a new crisis whirlpool

  The United States and NATO hurriedly announced the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, causing war-torn Afghanistan to plunge into a new crisis vortex.

Li Shaoxian, Dean of the Arab College of Ningxia University in China, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that the US military entered at will, and now retreat irresponsibly, which is also extremely irresponsible.

The consequence of this move by the United States is that not only Afghanistan, which has been suffering from war for more than 20 years, will once again fall into the abyss of civil war, but it also brings overflow security threats to neighboring countries.

  Li Shaoxian pointed out that on the one hand, the spillover of the chaos in Afghanistan has an impact on the north, south and west of the surrounding area.

To the north is to affect Central Asian countries.

In fact, with Atta’s offensive, thousands of Afghan government troops have poured into Tajikistan, and the country’s stability is facing a huge test.

For Pakistan, south of Afghanistan, Atta’s offensive has greatly stimulated the Taliban in Pakistan.

In recent days, the successive attacks in Pakistan and the kidnapping of the daughter of the Afghan ambassador to Pakistan are closely related to changes in the situation in Afghanistan.

In addition, going west also has an impact on Iran. In the past few decades, due to the continuous war in Afghanistan, there have been millions of Afghan refugees in Iran. Iran will also be highly tense with changes in the situation in Afghanistan. If the situation deteriorates, it will inevitably trigger its deployment of troops to the border. And other series of actions.

  On the other hand, as the situation in Afghanistan is developing, geopolitical struggles in neighboring countries have also begun to intensify.

Among them, Pakistan and India are very likely to become opposing pairs.

Afghanistan will actually become a place where the fighting between India and Pakistan has intensified.

Li Shaoxian said that both India and Pakistan hope to take this opportunity to expand their influence in Afghanistan.

If India's influence expands, Pakistan will suffer from the enemy's back; conversely, if Pakistan's influence expands, the Taliban may come back. This is also what India does not want to see.

Therefore, intensified geopolitical disputes between India and Pakistan will bring about a series of complex changes in the situation.

There are reports that India has sent military aircraft to provide weapons and ammunition assistance to the Afghan government to suppress Atta’s offensive. This actually shows that India will not "sit and watch" the situation in Afghanistan develop in a direction that is beneficial to Pakistan.

Signs of peace talks are positive but substantial progress is still difficult to achieve

  On July 17, high-level representatives of the Afghan government and the Taliban held peace talks in Doha, the capital of Qatar. The result of the talks was that the two sides agreed to continue the high-level talks.

  Regarding the reasons for the peace talks, Li Shaoxian pointed out that the current situation in Afghanistan is two "unable to eat." One is the government's inability to restore the areas occupied by the Taliban; the other is that the Taliban is also unable to seize control of the country.

In this case, both sides have the need to negotiate to resolve the issue, so the Doha high-level talks on July 17 came into being.

Atta’s current strategy is to achieve goals at the negotiating table, “strike” and “talk” at the same time, and put pressure on the negotiating table through “strike”.

  Regarding the significance of the talks, Li Shaoxian pointed out that the talks first sent a positive signal, but it is not easy for the talks to achieve substantive progress.

Because on the three fundamental issues, the positions of the Afghan government and Atta are sharply opposed.

The first is the national nature of Afghanistan in the future.

The Taliban demanded adherence to the Islamic system, while the Afghan government must adhere to the nature of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.

Second, the two sides have different views on the reconciliation process.

The Afghan government advocates leadership, and the president remains unchanged, incorporating Atta’s power into the joint power.

But Atta advocated the establishment of a coalition government on the principle of equality.

The third is that the Afghan government hopes to ceasefire before continuing negotiations.

But Atta demanded that the above two fundamental issues be resolved before a ceasefire.

Li Shaoxian said that in view of this, the outside world cannot expect a breakthrough in this negotiation soon.

Fully coordinate and communicate China's role as a responsible major country

  As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Afghanistan’s largest neighbor, and a founding member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China’s role in the peace process in Afghanistan cannot be avoided.

  In this regard, Li Shaoxian pointed out that when the two parties in the conflict in Afghanistan propose to reconcile, it is in the common interest of neighboring countries to promote the reconciliation process in Afghanistan.

This requires the Afghans themselves to lead the Afghans themselves, under the impetus of the international community, neighboring countries, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and other forces, to actively draw the relevant parties in Afghanistan into the reconciliation process and the political mainstream.

  Li Shaoxian said that as an important neighbor of Afghanistan, China is very concerned about the peace and stability of Afghanistan and is also actively playing its role.

China has always been committed to building bridges between various stakeholders, mediating mediation, providing assistance, contributing wisdom, and playing a constructive role in promoting the political settlement of the Afghan issue.

This is not only in China's interests, but also a manifestation of playing the role of a responsible power.

  Regarding how China responds to the impact of the Afghan crisis, Li Shaoxian pointed out that from an external perspective, China should attach great importance to or promote the key role of the SCO. As stated in the SCO Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, it resolutely safeguards Afghanistan’s sovereignty, independence and territory. Complete, vigorously promote the internal reconciliation process in Afghanistan to prevent Afghanistan from falling into a state of war and chaos.

At the same time, pay attention to communication with important countries around Afghanistan, and strengthen communication and coordination with various forces within Afghanistan, at least to prevent it from harming China.

In terms of internal affairs, we must do our own thing, persist in advancing the overall situation of stable development, and at the same time strictly control borders to prevent extremist forces and the "three forces" from taking advantage of chaos.