Possible water wars in the Middle East
The Renaissance Dam could trigger a water war in the Middle East.
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It seems that climate change, rising sea temperatures and extreme weather fluctuations, may lead to the approach of the first direct water war, since the days of ancient Mesopotamia.
Water warfare in the twenty-first century can come in two forms: the first will be in a poorly managed, or panicked, response to rising seas.
where about 150 million people live on one meter or less, above current sea level;
As a result of this unprecedented situation, many will be displaced and become climate refugees, creating great instability.
As for the second type of war, it may be around the corner. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has warned Ethiopia that he will not rule out the use of military force, if the new, huge Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam means that the Egyptians will leave without water.
But despite the Egyptian threat, the ambition of the Ethiopian Prime Minister and Nobel Peace Prize winner, Abiy Ahmed, is to fill a reservoir to create the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa, and thus become a major source of energy.
It must be said here, however, that Sisi fears that the Ethiopians are unilaterally getting rid of the colonial-era share of the Nile waters between Egypt and Sudan.
He is not only afraid of losing drinking water, the Egyptian population is growing at a rate of 1.5 million annually, and by 2025 the water supply will be reduced to less than 500 cubic meters per capita, a level hydrologists call absolute scarcity, but also the loss of face.
It seems clear that all over the world, fragile states are close to collapse because they have lost control of the three essentials: water, oxygen and bread.
This is how government performance is measured.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, food prices in the Middle East have almost reached the level of February 2011. This should raise alarm bells across the region: the cost of food in early 2011 was one of the contributing factors to the Arab Spring uprisings.
• Across the world, fragile states are close to collapse, as they have lost control of the three essentials: water, oxygen and bread.
Roger Boys ■ Journalist specializing in Middle East and African affairs
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