Istat: in the second quarter, GDP soars to + 2.7%. Inflation accelerates to 1.8%

• Istat, over 400,000 employed in 5 months.

  Unemployment rate at 9.7%

• Istat, business confidence in July at its highest ever.

  Consumer confidence is also rising

• Istat report, recovery is near but Italy is poorer

• Covid.

  Istat: north-central area most affected by the crisis.

  GDP -9% in 2020

• Istat: recovery better than expected, GDP estimates grow from 4 to 4.7%

Share

July 30, 2021

In the second quarter of 2021, Italian GDP, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, increased by 2.7% compared to the previous quarter and by 17.3% in trend terms. Istat communicates this on the basis of preliminary estimates. The "exceptionally marked" increase recorded on an annual basis, explains the Institute of Statistics, derives from the comparison with the minimum point reached in the second quarter of 2020 at the height of the health crisis due to the spread of Covid. 

The growth acquired for 2021, the one that would be obtained if in the third and fourth quarters of the year the Italian GDP recorded a zero cyclical change, is

. 

"After a slight recovery in the first quarter of 2021, the Italian economy recorded very sustained growth in the second quarter of the year. The result benefited above all from a strong recovery in the market services sector, the most penalized by the crisis. of a growth in industry and a substantial stationary nature of agriculture ". 

The figure communicated today by Istat is clearly higher than analysts' expectations. The consensus indicated an economic expansion of 1.3% on a quarterly basis until yesterday. The growth acquired for 2021, equal to 4.8%, is instead only slightly lower than the forecasts of the government, the European Commission and the Bank of Italy, who agree in estimating an increase in GDP of around 5%. If in the Def of April a growth of 4.5% was indicated, on several occasions the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, in fact judged the objective of 5% to be reached, with the only risk represented in recent weeks by the spread of Covid variants. L'Finally, Istat specifies that the second quarter of 2021 had one more working day both compared to the previous quarter and compared to the second quarter of 2020. 

According to preliminary estimates by Istat, in July 2021 the national index of consumer prices for the entire community (Nic), before tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.3% on monthly basis and 1.8% on an annual basis (from + 1.3% the previous month). "The sharp acceleration of inflation in July - comments the Institute - is again due to the prices of

, in particular those regulated" (which include electricity and gas tariffs), which recorded "the highest growth since 1996 ", ie since the time series relating to the aggregate is available. 

The tendential acceleration of inflation, according to Istat, is mainly due to that of the prices of energy goods (from + 14.1% in June to + 16.9%) and in particular to those of the regulated component which recorded in July a surge in growth (from + 16.9% to + 29.0%), while the prices of the non-regulated component slowed down (from + 12.8% to + 11.2%). The prices of processed foodstuffs (which reverse the trend from -0.4% to + 0.4%), those of unprocessed foodstuffs (which reduce the decline from -1.1%) contribute to this dynamic, but to a lesser extent. to -0.2%), the slight acceleration in the prices of recreational, cultural and personal care services (from + 1.0% to + 1.3%) and the smaller decline in those of transport services ( from -1.4% to -0.2%).   

The prices of the so-called 

, which includes the prices of food goods, for home and personal care, recorded a trend reversal in July, going from -0.7% the previous month to + 0.2%, while those of products high-frequency purchases accelerate (from + 1.6% to + 2.0%). Istat communicates this by disseminating the provisional data on consumer prices for July. 

The recovery is there. And it is consolidating, in Europe as in the main economies of the continent, with Italy running faster than the 'German locomotive' and the Eurozone. The GDP data in the second quarter attest that the light can be glimpsed at the end of the tunnel, although fears remain about the increase in infections due to the delta variant and the specter of new lockdowns and restrictions. In the second quarter, GDP grew by 2% in the eurozone and by 1.9% in the EU. Among the Member States, Portugal (+ 4.9%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Austria (+ 4.3%) and Latvia (+ 3.7%), while Lithuania (+ 0.4%) and the Czech Republic (+ 0.6%) recorded the lowest increase. The Italian growth was 2.7% (+ 17.3% compared to last year).Year-over-year growth rates were positive for all countries.

Germany

The German economy grew by 1.5% in the second quarter, following a revised contraction of 2.1% in the previous quarter and the lack of market expectations of a growth of 2.0%. The preliminary estimate of the Federal Statistical Office notes this, explaining that on an annual basis the German GDP increased by 9.20%. The recovery in the second quarter followed the gradual easing of coronavirus-induced restrictions and is mainly due to the increase in household and government final consumption spending. GDP was still 3.4% lower in the second quarter of 2021 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, the quarter before the start of the pandemic crisis.

Portugal's GDP increased by 4.8% in the second quarter, a period marked by the gradual lifting of restrictions after the blockade linked to Covid: this is predicted by the National Institute of Statistics (Ine) of Lisbon. On an annual basis, economic activity jumped by 15.5%, INE said, adding that the quarterly increase was largely supported by "domestic demand" and "an increase in exports of goods". Portugal is returning to growth after the economy contracted by 3.2% in the first quarter, due to the lockdown between mid-January and mid-March to deal with the violent wave of coronavirus.     

"The French economy rebounds in the second quarter, with a 0.9% increase in GDP, better than expected, in a period marked by both the third lockdown and the gradual lifting of restrictions, according to an initial estimate by Insee. "it is approaching the pre-crisis level", underlines the National Institute of Statistics, which indicates that it has slightly increased the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter, now estimated to be stable, and not down by 0.1% , as declared in late May. "This is an exceptional performance for the French economy," said Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire.

Spain also returned to growth in the second quarter, with an increase in GDP of 2.8% compared to the previous quarter, confirming the recovery of the economy despite the uncertainty that still weighs on the Covid pandemic. Expectations were for 2% growth. In the first quarter, the Spanish economy contracted by 0.4%, after having recorded a historic collapse of 10.8% in 2020, one of the largest declines among developed countries.