Cairo -
With the beginning of the new millennium, the Nile Basin region witnessed major conflicts due to the race to obtain energy from building dams, the most prominent of which was the crisis of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its damage to the downstream countries Egypt and Sudan. However, several international and regional experiences may be an opportunity to get out of this predicament for the countries of the region. Especially Egypt.
There are around 300 transboundary river basins in the world, in addition to 100 lakes and a large number of groundwater aquifers, all of which are shared by more than one country, which has made water resources a major cause of regional conflicts in recent decades, according to UN reports.
In order to overcome these conflicts away from the various military actions, the countries of the world sought to conclude hundreds of treaties.
The Nile River was among these crises that rose strongly to the surface of international discussions in recent times, in light of the failure to reach a solution that satisfies the tripartite crisis of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia).
Al Jazeera Net monitors - based on UN reports, international studies, research papers and specialized articles - the most prominent international and regional experiences that Egypt may benefit from in the Renaissance Dam crisis, through previous experiences in some international and cross-border river basins, some of which were resolved in peaceful and sustainable ways to an extent. What, and the other has been resolved, but crises re-emerge from time to time.
The most important testimonies from those international experiences can be monitored as follows:
Continuing to negotiate a settlement
Recourse to a third party
International arbitration and recourse to the International Court of Justice
Convincing Ethiopia of Egyptian concerns through a series of concessions that it can achieve in the event of an amicable agreement
Forming a regional commission to achieve the desired development of the Nile Basin countries.
Volta basin حوض
It is a transboundary basin in Africa that has been for years without legal or institutional arrangements, and more than 80% of the area of this basin lies within the republics of Burkina Faso and Ghana.
In 2008, the Volta River Basin Authority was established, and it includes 6 countries: Benin, Ivory Coast, Mali, Togo, in addition to Burkina Faso and Ghana.
The riparian countries of the Volta Basin exchange data and information to reduce the effects of floods, which contributes to enriching the hydrological database of the basin countries, a process that began in 2012 and is known as "Volta Hikos".
Indus River
There is an old dispute over the Indus River between India and Pakistan, in which the two countries were able to reach a solution through the World Bank through the Treaty of Indus in 1960, in which 6 tributaries that follow the river were divided between the two countries.
The bond treaty stipulated that each party agreeing to any non-consumable use must take place in a manner that does not fundamentally alter the other party's uses.
Also under the treaty, India is required to provide data in the event of an "extraordinary flood" every 3 months for the three eastern rivers which are allotted to New Delhi.
International arbitration also succeeded in resolving two disputes between India and Pakistan in the new millennium, the first was in 2013 in the “Kishanganga” dispute, where the case raised Pakistan against India due to the latter’s construction of a hydroelectric dam project on the tributary of the Indus River, and the other was the “Baglihar” dispute, which was resolved 2007 due to India's construction of the Baglihar Hydroelectric Project on another tributary of the same river.
And the former Egyptian Minister of Irrigation Nasr Allam had previously proposed the idea of benefiting from the Indian-Pakistani experience in the issue of water, saying in press statements that despite the historical differences between the two countries, it was possible to reach an understanding on building a dam that takes into account the rights of all parties, but the agreement meant preserving the rights of all, not harming and commitment by international law.
The Mekong and the Amazon
A conflict erupted in the Mekong River Basin between the countries of Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, and it was agreed to form a commission in the nineties of the last century to achieve sustainable development and administrative integration of watershed resources.
Thanks to the Commission, the basin countries were able to develop, as Thailand became a developing country, while Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia achieved remarkable progress in the region's economic development.
The same is true with the Amazon River, which has been in existence since 1960, a commission for economic exploitation of water, forests and agriculture, in which Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela and Bolivia participate.
In North America, the United States and Canada share many rivers and some of the largest lakes in the world, and the commission - established in 1909 under the Treaty on the Adjacent Waters - aims to help the governments of the two countries find solutions to problems related to their adjacent waters.
Nile Basin
It is noteworthy that the leaders of the Nile Basin countries had previously agreed to launch the Nile Basin Initiative, to distribute water resources in accordance with the principles of international water law, which are related to the equitable and equitable distribution of water resources among all the basin countries.
This initiative was considered a transitional stage and a step towards establishing the Nile Basin Commission, to be more like a permanent and continuous regional organization. However, it was not agreed upon due to differences on points related to prior notification and not harming the downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan).
The basin countries (11 countries after the independence of South Sudan) signed individually in the absence of the downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) on the Nile Basin Framework Agreement for the formation of the commission.
Ibrahim Nawar, a researcher specializing in international disputes and economic relations, had previously called in Cairo and Khartoum to sign the Nile Basin Initiative agreement, noting in a previous article that it represents a recognized legal framework for Africa.
Nawar said that signing the International Law of Rivers and the Nile Initiative’s Cooperative Framework Agreement would place the Egyptian and Sudanese demands regarding the Renaissance Dam on a sound legal basis, and justify the two countries’ right to use all other means in the event that Ethiopia does not comply with international law.
Sihon, Jejun and La Plata
A conflict in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers (Sihon and Jejun) between the upstream state Russia (the period of Soviet rule) and the downstream states Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
The conflict passed through negotiation mechanisms for mutual benefit by barter for access to heating systems and water pricing. However, this harmony and consensus changed after the collapse of the Soviet Union and caused crises in which other riparian countries of the Syr Darya River participated.
A conflict also erupted in the La Plata River Basin in South America between Paraguay and Brazil, and it was resolved through bilateral and multilateral treaties and electrical interconnection treaties.
There was also a dispute between Brazil and Argentina over the distribution of water resources that was contained when Argentina succeeded in obtaining a UN resolution to obtain Advance Notification System information.
In the context of the Egyptian benefit from the previous experiences of Central Asia and South America, Cairo can - by activating and activating its diplomatic mechanisms - obtain a decision from the United Nations that recognizes its right to obtain the information it needs about the filling and operation of the Ethiopian dam.
It could also raise the possibility of sharing electricity with Ethiopia, similar to the measures that it has previously taken with other countries, including Sudan, in addition to involving a third party such as the World Bank in financing Ethiopian power stations, which may help overcome the blockage that the Renaissance Dam negotiations have reached. .
The electrical connection between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia may slow down the pace of filling the reservoir of the dam’s lake until the three countries can reach an agreement, in light of Ethiopia’s need for electricity and Egypt’s need for water, and Sudan’s desire to preserve its water facilities and not to drown its riparian areas along the Blue Nile, These are statements made by former parliamentarians and former ministers.
the river of Jordon
A dispute over the Jordan River between Jordan and Israel took place in 1955, and despite the state of war prevailing at that time with the Israeli occupation, understandings were established between them, mediated by the United States, to deal jointly with the river's waters.
The option of resorting to American mediation in the Ethiopian dam crisis remains strongly present within the corridors of the Egyptian regime, despite the Ethiopian prior rejection of Egyptian-Sudanese proposals to resort to international mediation in light of the “Declaration of Principles” document signed by the leaders of the three countries in March 2015, whose Article 10 grants the right to Objection to international mediation unless everyone agrees.
Ethiopia also previously refused to sign the Washington document sponsored by the latter alongside the World Bank in late 2019, which placed it in front of sanctions and warnings by former US President Donald Trump that the dam would be destroyed through Egypt, but warnings that did not cross the barrier of words.
Rio Grande
The dispute in the "Rio Grande" River between the United States and Mexico is the longest historical dispute over water between two countries, and it was resolved through the mechanism of distributing water quotas in normal and drought periods.
On the issue of the Renaissance Dam, Egypt fears that the coming periods will witness a decrease in the level of the Nile water, which explains Egypt’s repeated request from Ethiopia to commit not to store water in the event of a decrease in the flow of the Blue Nile water, which Ethiopia has repeatedly rejected.
The Danube and the Hungary-Slovak crisis
The Danube is shared by 10 European countries: Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine.
The International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River, through a network of agreements, organizes navigation operations in the river and the consumption of water in 22 cities overlooking it between the upstream countries on the Alps and downstream countries in the Caspian Sea.
Despite this consensus, a crisis erupted between Hungary and Slovakia over the construction of dams on the Danube, which was addressed by the International Court of Justice in The Hague in the nineties of the last century, a crisis that continues to this day.
The crises of the Nile and Danube rivers are similar in that there are historical agreements between the riparian countries (which are rejected by Ethiopia and adhered to by Egypt), and based on the agreements signed between Hungary and Slovakia, the ruling of "international justice" was issued.
The fundamental difference, however, is that the cause of the Danube issue was not an attempt to prevent the construction of dams, but rather Slovakia's desire for Hungary to abide by its previous commitments in an agreement signed in 1977 to jointly construct a series of dams on the Danube River between the two countries.
Observers in Egypt have previously called for the possibility of resorting to the International Court to resolve the Ethiopian dam crisis, as in the Danube River case, the court affirmed the obligation to abide by the agreements without other considerations.
Among the most prominent agreements on which Egypt relies in the Ethiopian dam crisis are the 1902 and 1959 agreements that established Egypt’s share of water to be no less than 55.5 billion cubic meters annually, and that Ethiopia does not undertake any construction work without prior notification and Egypt’s approval.
But what may weaken Egypt’s position in this regard is that it signed the Declaration of Principles Agreement in 2015 with Sudan and Ethiopia, which included recognition of Ethiopia’s right to build the dam and dealt with it as a fait accompli.