Yesterday, Monday, the hard currency bonds issued by the Central Bank of Tunisia fell sharply after President Kais Saied's decision to dismiss the government and freeze the work of Parliament for 30 days after the political crisis in the country.
A spokesman for the International Monetary Fund announced - quoting Reuters news agency - the fund's readiness to continue to help Tunisia deal with the repercussions of the Corona pandemic, achieve a "job-rich recovery" and restore a sustainable financial situation.
The spokesman added - according to the same source - that Tunisia "is still facing extraordinary social and economic pressures, including the repercussions of the Corona crisis, which caused heavy losses in lives and the aspirations of Tunisians for higher growth and an increase in jobs."
The current account deficit rose to 7.1% of GDP last year, at a time when Tunisia is seeking a $4 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund for a period of 3 years to help stabilize its financial situation.
a test
Qais Saeed faces a test in his ability to reform the crisis economic conditions within the month specified for him by Chapter (Article 80) of the Constitution, after dissolving the government and freezing Parliament.
In order to be able to fix the economic imbalance, the economic expert, Mohamed Mimouni, believes that the President of the Republic should restore the production format of the major public economic companies to his predecessor, "which requires full agreement with the Tunisian General Labor Union by conducting a social contract with it for a certain period, which puts an end to all protest movements within these institutions.
Saied, according to Maimouni, also had to "rebalance the trade balance (exports and imports), which is now witnessing a complete imbalance, restore the value of the collapsed Tunisian dinar compared to the hard currency (the dollar and the euro), and involve the private sector in the strategy that the president will follow during this period through legal mechanisms that guarantee The contribution of this sector to reforming the economic situation in exchange for fiscal privileges,” he adds to Al Jazeera Net.
"No More Promises"
Mimouni believes that, despite his internal relations, especially with national organizations, the most important of which are the Tunisian General Labor Union, the Al-Araf organization, and even his external relations, "it is almost impossible for him to fulfill his promise to achieve comprehensive economic reform within a month, because the Tunisian economic system is completely collapsed and the matter remains only a matter of promises." ".
As for the economic expert, Ezzedine Saidan, he stressed that "Tunisia's economic imbalance and the financial situation that is going through its worst conditions existed before Qais Said made his last decisions, a fact that must be remembered."
He explains - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - that Tunisia has been living very difficult political conditions for 10 years, and has deteriorated in the last three years to the extent that it was unable to engage in serious economic reforms.
Saidan revealed that Tunisia, before Said's decisions, was faltering in paying public office wages, and repaid a $500 million loan a few days ago, at an interest rate of 2.5%, "in the worst possible way", by borrowing the government last Thursday 1.4 billion dinars from Tunisian banks that borrowed it. In turn, from the Central Bank, provided that the repayment of this debt will be within 3 months only, at an interest rate of 6.52%.
'Very dangerous solutions'
He considered that this is evidence that "the natural solutions for dealing with the external debt have completely disappeared, and the government has resorted to very dangerous solutions."
He adds that the talks that started since last May with the International Monetary Fund regarding obtaining a loan of $ 4 billion did not progress one iota and remained stumbling, because the Fund presented a question to the Tunisian authorities that they could not answer, which is “Do you have a government in Tunisia that is really capable of Achieving the reforms that you presented in the document you brought to Washington at the end of last April?
Saidan considers that what happened in Tunisia (Saeed's decisions) is "entering a new phase that may enable the country to overcome the severe political and economic crisis, and this is linked to the measures and decisions that will be taken in the coming hours and days."
reassurance messages
He points out that what is required now from Saeed is to reassure the international financial markets as soon as possible, "and this can be accomplished" and to quickly contact all friendly and brotherly countries to try to secure financial resources in hard currency, enabling the Tunisian state to reassure the international financial markets, that the loans are repaid as nature and that there is no justification for this panic, according to his assessment.
The head of state must also "form a government as soon as possible, which will send a very important message of reassurance to the outside that the main concern of the Tunisian authority in the near future is to save the economy."
Saeedan points out the need for the central bank to play a different role as an advisory financial advisor, in an attempt to save the economy from the consequences of the Corona pandemic, "after the bankruptcy of more than 70,000 economic institutions and the loss of tens of thousands of jobs."
And the economist concludes, “The importance is not to focus on the period of the month set by Saeed, because he can extend it. Rather, the most important thing is that if sufficient reassurance measures are taken within a month, the country will be put on the right track, and when foreign parties and partners sense a sincere intention and a serious attempt to save the economy.” Tunisia will achieve a very important goal."