The third wave of epidemics will hit, and the death toll from the new crown in India has caused speculation. US-Canada think tank: the real number is between 2.7 million and 4.9 million
[Global Times Special Correspondent in India Hu Bofeng Global Times Special Correspondent Ren Zhong] How many deaths are there from new coronary pneumonia in India?
Since the epidemic swept across India last year, this issue has lingered in the minds of many media reporters and epidemiologists.
A week ago, a US think tank released a report stating that the actual death toll from the epidemic in India may reach about 4.9 million.
The report was quickly refuted and rejected by Indian officials.
On the 27th, another Indian media quoted a study by a well-known epidemiologist at the University of Toronto in Canada, saying that the death toll was between 2.7 million and 3.3 million.
These "million-level" figures, no matter which one comes true, means the worst tragedy since India's independence.
Objectively speaking, the problem of statistical omissions is by no means owned by India alone, but India’s situation is somewhat special. It has always been too difficult for the outside world to see the full picture of the Indian epidemic from the official figures.
In the first half of this year, India experienced an extremely tragic second wave of epidemics, and now it is preparing to deal with the arrival of the third wave of epidemics in a complex mood.
420,000? Maybe multiply by 7 or 10
"The number of deaths in India due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic is at least between 2.7 million and 3.3 million." On the 27th, the Hindustan Times cited Prabat Jha, an epidemiologist at the Global Health Research Center of the University of Toronto in Canada, and the United States The assessment report of Dartmouth College scholar Paul Novosad questioned the statistics on deaths released by the Indian government.
The data released by the Ministry of Health of India that day showed that the cumulative number of deaths in India was approximately 421,000.
According to the report, the study is based on a statistical survey of excess mortality in 8 states and 7 large cities in India from June 2020 to 2021.
Excess mortality is the result of comparing the number of deaths in a certain period of time in a region with the normal number of deaths in the same period in other years.
Researchers believe that most of these additional deaths may be caused by the new coronavirus.
According to the report, the median excess mortality rate in India during the first wave of the epidemic last year was 22%. Among them, Andhra Pradesh had the highest rate of about 63%, and Kerala had the lowest rate of about 6%.
In the second wave of epidemics from April to June this year, this value surged to 46%, and as high as 198% in Madhya Pradesh.
This report is still subject to peer review. Its data comes from India’s civil registration system that records births and deaths, as well as some healthcare institutions that collect data through health management information systems and telephone surveys.
The main author Prabat Jha has been responsible for the "Millions of Death Research Project" in India for many years, which is one of the largest studies on premature death in the world.
Qimei Tomby, an assistant professor at the Indian Institute of Management, who is also a member of the author team of the latest report, said: "Our conclusion is that the number of deaths from the new crown in India is 7 to 8 times higher than the official 290/million people."
This figure is lower than the 4.9 million research report published by the US think tank "Global Development Center" on the 20th, which is more than ten times the official figure of India.
One of the authors of the report is Arvind Subramanian, the former chief economic adviser of the Indian government.
According to the report, “the real number of deaths may be in the millions instead of 100,000. This means that the new crown epidemic can be said to be India’s worst human tragedy since the partition and independence of India and Pakistan.”
At the end of June, the "Wall Street Journal" reported that based on mortality and serological survey data, a scholar at Middlesex University in the United Kingdom estimated that the death toll from the epidemic in India may be close to 2 million.
In late May, the cumulative number of deaths from the new crown in India exceeded 300,000. The New York Times stated that the actual death toll should be twice the official figure, and experts believe that it is much more than that.
The biggest "record gap" is in rural areas
In response to reports from Western think tanks such as the "Global Development Center", the Indian government did not respond by name, but publicly denied "all accusations of errors in its statistical data" and stated that India "has a strong, law-based death registration system, which is unlikely Occurrence of statistical omissions".
However, India’s new Minister of Health Mandavia recently stated that “detailed guidelines for death statistics” have been issued to all regions.
Indian epidemiologist Samila Kant told the Global Times reporter that since the outbreak, the Indian medical system has been overwhelmed and has faced pressure from all quarters. “Therefore, I believe the government should not deliberately release misinformation or omissions. Case statistics. But under high pressure, there is indeed the possibility of errors caused by negligence."
"At least some cases that have not been diagnosed before death will not be included in the statistics of new crown death cases." He said.
The Indian Express published a commentary on the 27th, criticizing some researchers for using the epidemic as a weapon, using jumping reasoning, explanation and imagination, and relying on inappropriate data to try to estimate the number of deaths from the epidemic in India.
The article said that there is no need to rush to assess the death figures in India. It is wise to wait for comprehensive data. If these data do not come out soon, they should be available in 2023.
In fact, both the foreign media and the Indian media believe that India’s official diagnosis and death numbers are on the low side. The key lies in the scale of the omission.
According to Bloomberg in the United States, in rural India, many people have not been tested, and those who have been diagnosed have not been treated. They were not included in official statistics when they died. This is a violation of the statistical guidelines issued by the central government. At least 6 local states have not. Respond to relevant statistical requirements.
Prabat Jha also believes that the biggest record gap is in the countryside. There is no official record for family burial or cremation of their loved ones.
According to a report by India’s “scroll” news network on the 27th, according to Indian media investigations, from April 2020 to May this year, West Bengal recorded more than 120,000 “excess deaths”, which is the number of deaths announced during the same period (10787). People) 11.1 times.
In Kolkata, the number of excess deaths is 2.9 times the official death toll from the epidemic.
There are more "excesses" in rural areas. In the East Baldaman district of the state, the number of excess deaths is 60.4 times the number of deaths from the epidemic.
The clues can also be seen from India's new crown serum antibody test.
The Medical Research Council of India released the fourth round of testing results on the 20th, showing that 67.6% of the subjects over 6 years old tested positive. The last round of testing in India was conducted from December last year to January this year. The positive rate was 21.5%.
The increase in the positive rate is mainly due to the second wave of epidemics and vaccination.
As of July 27, about 440 million people in India had received at least one dose of vaccine, and 95.39 million people had completed two doses, accounting for about 7% of the total population.
Uneasy to prepare for the third wave of epidemic
According to data released by the Ministry of Health of India on the 27th, in the past 24 hours, 29,689 new confirmed cases of new crown in India and 415 new deaths were added.
This is the first time in 132 days that India has fewer than 30,000 new diagnoses per day.
From March to May this year, the number of newly diagnosed cases in India rose rapidly every day, exceeding 410,000 at one time.
Although the epidemic has eased, the situation in several states such as Kerala and Andhra Pradesh is still severe, and the third wave of epidemics may come soon.
The third wave of epidemics may break out in October-November, and the earliest may be the end of August.
India’s “Financial Express” stated on the 27th that officials responsible for formulating anti-epidemic strategies warned that after the third wave of epidemics, the government needs to deal with the daily increase of 400,000 to 500,000 confirmed cases, and the authorities should work hard to reduce the data to Below 50,000.
According to reports, some states are speeding up vaccination and training medical and health personnel for this purpose.
Some people in Indian society are optimistic and some are worried.
In Telangana, India, a research report on the 26th said that more than 60% of the population in the region already have antibodies, and 55% of children aged 6-9 have antibodies.
According to experts from the National Institute of Nutrition of India, based in Hyderabad, this will help Telangana to successfully survive the third wave of the epidemic.
However, "India Outlook" stated on the 27th that despite the constant expression of concerns by experts and doctors, it is shocking that Indian families are still not prepared.
A survey of 7,116 households in 10 states found that only 9% of rural and urban poor households had thermometers and 3% had oxygen cylinders.
According to reports, in the past 18 months, two consecutive blockades left Indians breathless.
During the second wave of the epidemic, the problem of oxygen shortage was very obvious.
In addition, nearly 60% of the interviewees were unaware of or unable to use nearby medical facilities, and the public lacked awareness of the mutant strains and related symptoms.
Some analysts believe that the fourth serum test results bring hope to India, but India still has a third of the population, that is, more than 400 million people are still vulnerable.
Some experts believe that it is not ruled out that a new and more infectious mutant virus will appear at that time, but the fatality rate will not be as high as before.
However, there may also be new mutant viruses that can bypass the human immune system-if such a scenario occurs, it may be a huge disaster for India.
Global Times Special Correspondent in India Hu Bofeng Global Times Special Correspondent Ren Zhong