A year ago, a comprehensive ceasefire began to operate in Donbass.
The corresponding agreement was reached by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) at an online meeting held on July 22, 2020.
The parties agreed to resolve all controversial issues through the coordination mechanism for responding to violations of the ceasefire with the assistance of the Joint Control and Coordination Center (JCCC), which includes officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and military personnel of both self-proclaimed people's republics.
“After almost five months of resistance, the Ukrainian side found the courage to agree on the ceasefire measures that have been repeatedly proposed by Donetsk and Luhansk.
Measures to ensure the ceasefire between Kiev and Donbass should come into force on July 27, "- this is how the plenipotentiary representative of the Russian Federation at the talks in Minsk Boris Gryzlov commented on the agreement.
Under the terms of last year's agreement, the parties to the conflict, which has not ended since the spring of 2014, pledged not to use any firearms and drones.
Kiev and the people's republics agreed not to carry out provocations, sabotage and reconnaissance operations, not to engage in additional engineering equipment for their positions.
The agreement was supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky.
So, in the message of the Kremlin press service it was said that during the telephone conversation the heads of state emphasized "the importance of unconditional observance of these agreements by the parties to the conflict."
Nevertheless, Kiev decided to strengthen its military presence in Donbass.
Specially seconded servicemen with experience of participation in hostilities and peacekeeping missions were sent to the line of contact.
As explained at the headquarters of the Joint Forces Operation (JF), this measure was required to provide additional control over the ceasefire regime and in order to prevent "possible provocations."
On the verge of failure
According to the Ukrainian authorities, the calm in Donbass lasted less than a month and a half.
In early September, the headquarters of the JFO reported that the LPR militia twice fired at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and one Ukrainian soldier became a victim of the fire.
“Ukraine has carefully studied both attacks and regards them as two separate incidents committed with a provocative purpose.
We demand from Russia to intervene in the situation and influence the provocative behavior of illegal armed groups in Donetsk and Luhansk regions in order to maintain the ceasefire regime, ”the office of the President of Ukraine said at the time.
In Lugansk, they denied information about the shelling.
It is worth noting that the first serious aggravation of the situation was preceded by work on the construction of new fortifications on the line of contact, which, according to the DPR and LPR, were carried out by Ukrainian military personnel.
Military personnel of the JFO
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The leadership of the Donetsk People's Republic regarded these actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a provocation.
Donetsk has repeatedly conveyed its concerns to Kiev during the TCG negotiations and through the JCCC mechanism.
However, the Ukrainian authorities ignored the claims of the militia.
As a result, the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin threatened to strike at the erected Ukrainian engineering structures.
As the experts interviewed by RT recalled, after the September exacerbation in Donbass, a period of "detente" began, but already in October the situation worsened again.
The parties to the conflict began to publish almost daily accusations of shelling and provocations.
More frequent violations of the ceasefire regime began to appear in the reports of the OSCE special monitoring mission.
Observers often recorded dozens of incidents per day.
On December 4, DPR plenipotentiary envoy to the TKG, DPR Foreign Minister Natalya Nikonorova said that the truce of July 27 was on the verge of collapse due to increased shelling from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
She stated that the Ukrainian military is using weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements.
According to the authorities of the People's Republic, from October to December, the security forces fired more than 200 mines of 120 and 82 mm caliber across the DPR.
“The situation has consistently degraded since the fall of 2020.
From the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, shelling of the positions of the troops of the people's republics and settlements resumed, the militia often returned fire - and so on in a circle.
Formally, no one broke the truce, but in fact it does not exist, "Pavel Feldman, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts of the RUDN University, stated in an interview with RT.
So, according to the DPR authorities, on July 26, 2021, the militia attacked Ukrainian positions, injuring three soldiers.
The blow was delivered in response to the shelling of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the barreled artillery of the village of Staromikhaylovka in the west of Donetsk and the village of Krasny Oktyabr in the Telmanovsky district.
In addition, according to the people's republic, the Ukrainian security forces opened fire from mortars and grenade launchers at the environs of the settlements of Yakovlevka and Vesyoloye.
According to Feldman, from the spring of 2021 to the present day, approximately the same situation has been established in Donbass as it was before the start of the ceasefire.
The main responsibility for the actual end of the silence regime, from the analyst's point of view, lies with the nationalist armed formations of Ukraine.
“There are forces in Donbass that are not under the control of the Ukrainian government and Zelensky.
These are the former volunteer battalions, which formally joined the power departments of Ukraine.
They always tried to exacerbate the situation, to prevent the slightest attempts to fulfill Minsk-2.
As long as they exist, all agreements can be violated at any time, ”says Feldman.
Artillerymen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on exercises
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Ukrainian political scientist Alexander Semchenko looks at the situation a little differently.
The expert believes that the ceasefire could not be maintained mainly due to the fact that the parties to the conflict did not prosecute those responsible for violating the agreements of July 27.
“The agreements themselves are harmonious and logical.
And, in principle, the OSCE fixes where the fire started, which provoked the shootout.
But I have not come across information that at least someone was brought to criminal or other liability.
Punishment could be a serious deterrent.
But in the end, the provocateurs only became more arrogant and cynical, ”says Semchenko.
Broken promises
According to analysts, Kiev was aware of the fragility of the ceasefire in the Donbass.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy tried to use his conclusion as a pretext for a new meeting in the Normandy format, which could have a beneficial effect on his rating.
The President of Ukraine initially hoped that the agreement on a comprehensive regime of silence would be signed by the leaders of the Quartet countries.
According to Zelensky, in this way it will be possible to raise the status of the document.
“This document is now awaiting signing by all parties of the Normandy group.
I believe that all parties - Ukraine, France, Germany and the Russian Federation - will sign, ”Zelensky said on July 23 last year.
At the same time, the President and a number of Ukrainian officials have repeatedly stressed that they are not ready to implement the points of the political settlement in the sequence that was fixed on February 12, 2015.
“In July 2020, Zelensky was still trying to preserve the image of the“ president of the world, ”a leader who, in the best sense of the word, is ready to bargain, make concessions for the sake of de-escalation.
He promised the Ukrainians a lasting peace and tried to pass off what turned out to be a short-term truce as an incredible achievement.
But in essence, Zelensky did not keep any promises to the voters, ”says Feldman.
According to him, the freezing of the conflict can be called a conditional merit of the President of Ukraine.
However, the expert explains Zelensky's reluctance to unleash large-scale hostilities, first of all, by Kiev's fears of suffering major defeats.
“To really end the war, Zelenskiy needs to reduce the country's dependence on the United States and stop fruitless attempts to revise Minsk-2 and the Steinmeier formula, to which he, by the way, agreed in 2019,” Feldman said.
President of Ukraine during a working trip to Donetsk region
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Alexander Semchenko adheres to a similar view of the situation.
He stressed that the agreements of February 12, 2015 spell out a "reasonable sequence" for the settlement of the conflict, which cannot be revised.
“Everything is clear in the Minsk agreements: you need to stop the fire, withdraw the troops, amend the legislation, hold elections, and only then Ukraine gets the border with the Russian Federation. However, the implementation of "Minsk-2" has been slowed down for several years at the very first points related to safety. Therefore, it makes no sense to talk about the prospects for the implementation of the political part now, "- stated Semchenko.