• Brusaferro: "the vaccine is the tool that allows us to be able to live with the virus"

  • Covid.

    The Rt index jumped to 1.26. Delta variant now prevalent in the country, sequencing is needed

Share

July 25, 2021 The numbers speak for themselves. From 5,306 cases in the week from 23-29 June up to 19,390 in the week from 14-20 July. So after 15 weeks of descent, the new weekly cases of Covid-19 recorded in Italy have rapidly risen. The painting is by the president of the Gimbe foundation, Nino Cartabellotta, who says: "Given


the exponential growth in the coming weeks, it is realistic to expect a significant increase in infections".



"With the start of the fourth wave - explains Cartabellotta - the management of the pandemic and public communication must take into account various aspects: dynamics of the circulation of Sars-Cov-2, potential impact of Covid-19 on hospitals, efficacy of vaccines, criticality of supply and administration, extension of the uses of the Green Pass and new parameters to assign the "colors' to the regions". In particular, he points out, "the progressive spread of the Delta variant is causing, as has already happened in other European countries, a surge in the number of infections, the extent of which is probably underestimated by the insufficient testing & tracing activity".



Less impact on hospitals


On the other hand, looking at the health system and hospitalizations, there is a reversal of the trend. There are small increases that do not seem to generate any overload, but that nevertheless document the hospital impact of the increased viral circulation. But thanks to vaccination coverage - reads the analysis of the Gimbe foundation - "it is reasonably certain that compared to the previous waves the impact of the number of cases on hospitalizations and intensive care will be less. It should be remembered that the extent of this impact remains proportional to the viral circulation, which must be limited as much as possible by adhering to the recommended behaviors and vaccinating all age groups, and inversely related to complete vaccination coverage, in particular those over 50 and frail, to be completed quickly ".



Vaccines


Vaccines chapter. They are effective over 88% and up to 96% against infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions and risk of death with the complete vaccination course, less with a single dose (70 to 80 percent) based on data from the Higher Institute of Health. Data that "if on the one hand confirm the effectiveness of vaccines in the real world, on the other they highlight the need to maintain the individual measures recommended to further limit the circulation of the virus". The president of the Gimbe Foundation highlights that according to the results published by the ISS, the complete vaccination cycle has a very high efficacy: 88% in preventing infection, 95% in reducing hospitalization, 97% in preventing hospitalization. in intensive care and 96% in reducing the risk of death.Percentages that decrease in people vaccinated with single dose to 70%, 81%, 89% and 80%, respectively.  



Vaccination campaign


Today the vaccination campaign, in fact, analyzes the Gimbe Foundation, can only count on Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines, given the CureVac flop that did not pass clinical tests and the progressive 'decline' of adenoviral vector vaccines: in fact, AstraZeneca is only used for boosters and Johnson & Johnson's are given a few thousand doses per day. "In other words - explains Cartabellotta - compared to the forecast of over 94 million doses for the third quarter, we will have about 45 million doses of mRNA vaccines, whose deliveries currently amount to around 2.7 million doses. week". If the rate of administration for a couple of months has now been well above 3.5 million per week, the percentage of first doses on the total has been reduced by about80% from the week 7-13 June to the week 12-18 July. "In recent days - states Cartabellotta - the first doses have been slightly increasing, but continue to be affected both by the need to complete vaccination cycles and by the insufficient number of deliveries to expand the number of vaccinators".



Green Pass


In this scenario, vaccines and the Green Pass are the best weapons to limit the circulation of the virus, allowing the safe relaunch of various sectors. "Furthermore, underlines Cartabellotta, given the boom in bookings, it immediately had the effect of a 'gentle push' towards vaccination." And on the new parameters for assigning 'colors' to the Regions "they are undoubtedly more consistent with the current scenario. However, the various combinations between incidence of cases and percentages of occupancy of beds in the medical and intensive care area - says Cartabellotta - are not very conservative, probably because they focus a lot on completing vaccination coverage for over 50s and frailties and on the effects of the Green Pass. in limiting viral circulation. In the end,the failure to define a minimum number of tampons per 100,000 inhabitants to limit opportunistic behavior is perplexing ".