Afghanistan: after the claimed attack, what future for the Islamic State group?
Afghan army soldiers during an operation against the Islamic State group in the Achin district of Nangarhar province, November 25, 2019 © AFP - NOORULLAH SHIRZADA
Text by: RFI Follow
6 mins
The terrorist organization claimed responsibility for firing the rockets that landed near the presidential palace on Tuesday morning, July 20 in Kabul, as President Ashraf Ghani and many officials gathered for Eid.
Since the Americans and NATO forces began to leave the country, the Taliban have taken large portions of the territory.
With this attack, ISIS is therefore trying to show that it is still present and active in Afghanistan.
But for how long ?
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With our correspondent in Kabul,
Sonia Ghezali
The branch of the Islamic State group in Afghanistan recalled its strike force with these rocket attacks in the direction of the presidential palace.
This is not the first time that the IS group has launched rockets in the direction of the most secure area of Kabul, namely the green zone where the presidential palace and many foreign ministries and embassies are located.
ISIS in Afghanistan also regularly attacks the Shiite minority present in neighborhoods in the west of the capital.
He carried out kamikaze attacks, among others, against cultural centers, sports centers and schools.
Afghan security services often question IS claims and accuse the Taliban of using the group to outsource their attacks.
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To read also: Afghanistan: rocket fire in Kabul in full celebration of Eid el-Adha
Harmful presence
The Afghan branch of ISIS first appeared in eastern Afghanistan in 2015.
It suffered several major setbacks with air raids, including the "mother of the bombs", a non-nuclear bomb of 9,900 kg, dropped by the Americans in 2017 in the east of the country on a network of tunnels used by combatants of IS.
A bombardment that weakened the terrorist group.
Today, ISIS still has a harmful presence: we are talking about cells that persist in eastern Afghanistan and Kabul.
If the country sinks into chaos as many experts predict after the total departure of troops on August 31, the risk that ISIS and other terrorist groups will take advantage of this to grow, to recruit even more and expand their influence and their presence is a very worrying reality and an obvious risk for international security.
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To read also: Afghanistan: women again under duress in areas taken over by the Taliban
Unpopular ideology
However, some experts believe that the terrorist organization does not have great prospects in the long term. "
The Islamic State has a chance of survival, but precisely, it is a question of surviving and controlling small portions of territory for a certain time,"
said Romain Malejacq, professor at the University of Radboud, in the Netherlands. , at the microphone of
Christophe Paget
, of the International service of RFI.
But
a priori,
in the long term, it will be much more complicated for the Islamic State, since it is at war both against the government, against the Taliban and against border countries. So all the actors in the Afghan conflict in reality are ganging up against the Islamic State.
"
“
Especially since the ideology of ISIS is widely rejected by the Afghan population,”
continues Romain Malejacq.
.
The Islamic State took advantage of this situation of instability, of this situation of war to settle in certain districts.
But the ideology never really took hold, because it is an ideology that is based on the clash between the Shiites and the Sunnis.
And in Afghanistan, this is something that is very unpopular.
"
Report from Kabul to victims of the fighting linked to the recent Taliban offensive
Sonia ghezali
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