"The government is recovering from the shock of the first defeats": what are the prospects for a peaceful dialogue on Afghanistan

A round of talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban * ended in Doha.

At a press conference following a two-day discussion, representatives of the parties read out a short communique stating that certain compromises had been reached.

“The parties agreed to find a fair and lasting solution to the problem as soon as possible.

They understand the need to reach a compromise that would meet the interests and aspirations of all men and women in Afghanistan in the light of Islamic principles, ”RIA Novosti quotes the text of the document.

According to the Afghan news portal TOLOnews, Kabul and the Taliban have agreed to prevent attacks on civilian infrastructure, prevent civilian casualties, provide humanitarian assistance to residents of the republic and cooperate in the fight against coronavirus.

The parties also agreed to continue the dialogue with the aim of a peaceful settlement of the situation in the country.

At the same time, the parties failed to reach a compromise on the issue of a ceasefire and exchange of prisoners.

According to TOLOnews sources, the Taliban insisted on the release of about 7,000 militants by the Afghan government and the deletion of the names of their leaders from the UN black (sanctions) list.

In turn, the Kabul delegation proposed to work out a "road map" for the establishment of peace.

In an interview with RT, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary Afghanistan (TsISA) Omar Nessar noted the importance of the first consultations against the background of a seriously aggravated situation in Afghanistan, despite the fact that the two-day dialogue in Qatar did not bring breakthrough results.

“The Taliban and the official government have completely different views on the further development of the country.

Thus, Kabul seeks to preserve the political system established after 2001 without significant changes, and the Taliban demand to radically change the current constitution, abolishing, in particular, the norms on elections and women's rights contained in it, ”Nessar said.

From the point of view of Vadim Kozyulin, head of the Center for Global Studies and International Relations of the IAMP of the Foreign Ministry's Diplomatic Academy, the main reason for the intra-Afghan disagreement is that the Taliban view the current government as a "puppet" of the United States.

The expert believes that the most rational way out of the crisis would be to form a coalition government with the participation of both sides, which the international community insists on.

“Because of the connection with the American authorities, the Taliban consider the government in Kabul to be a puppet and insolvent.

However, the negotiations in Doha showed that the state of affairs could nevertheless change for the better.

The Taliban made it clear that they are ready to make certain concessions, ”Kozyulin said.

Consequences of a hasty withdrawal

Recall that the internal armed conflict in Afghanistan intensified at the end of June with the beginning of a large-scale withdrawal of troops from the international coalition led by the United States.

Foreign formations must leave the Islamic Republic by August 31.

The main arena of confrontation between the government army and the Taliban was the north of the country.

Under the onslaught of the Taliban, the military began to surrender the border territories, often hiding from persecution in neighboring Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

According to the June report of the UN Security Council, the Taliban controlled 50-70% of the country's territory.

In early July, the leadership of the movement announced that it had established its authority in 162 of the 398 regions of Afghanistan.

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, about two-thirds of the border with Tajikistan was in the hands of the movement.

• Taliban militants

• Reuters

• © Stringer

The current situation has caused concern in Dushanbe.

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon instructed Defense Minister Sherali Mirzo to mobilize 20,000 reservists to strengthen border protection.

Rakhmon also discussed the situation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

On July 7, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced Moscow's readiness to use the resources of the 201st military base, which is stationed in the south of Tajikistan, to help its CSTO ally in the field of security.

The Russian Foreign Ministry fears that the militants of the "Islamic State" can take advantage of the tense situation in the north of Afghanistan **.

This was stated by the special representative of the Russian president for Afghanistan, director of the second department of Asia of the Russian Foreign Ministry Zamir Kabulov.

“We are closely following what is happening in Afghanistan, where the situation is tending to a rapid deterioration, including in the context of the hasty withdrawal of American and NATO troops,” Lavrov stressed.

At the same time, Moscow continues to maintain contacts with the political branch of the Taliban, acting within the framework of the previously adopted UN Security Council resolution on the peaceful settlement of the conflict in Afghanistan.

As the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova explained on July 18 on the air of the program "Evening with Vladimir Solovyov" on the TV channel "Russia 1", "the Taliban movement is part of the inter-Afghan dialogue, the very dialogue that the Security Council called on all countries to encourage."

To date, the intensity of clashes between the government army and the Taliban is still not decreasing. 

So, last week it became known about the elimination of the representative of the Taliban high command Aziz Rahman as a result of an attack by the Afghan air force in the Alingar district of Laghman province.

Also recently, the country's Interior Ministry reported on the destruction of Taliban intelligence chief Kari Shagasi and the detention of two of his associates.

On July 17, at the graduation ceremony for 135 special forces officers, Acting Defense Minister of Afghanistan, General Bismillah Mohammadi, believed to be a supporter of the armed struggle against the Taliban, said that they would not be able to achieve their goals through violence.

The next day, in a message on the occasion of the holiday of Eid al-Adha (Eid al-Adha (Eid al-Adha), one of the leaders of the Taliban, Mullah Haybatullah Akhundzad, stressed that the movement is committed to a peaceful solution to the problems with Kabul.

At the same time, he admitted that the Taliban are now actively fighting.

Akhundzada noted that the armed formations of the movement do not pose a threat to neighboring states and urged not to interfere in the internal affairs of Afghanistan.

Earlier, the Taliban also said that they do not seek to undermine the security of foreign countries and do not seek complete usurpation of power in the country. 

American factor

Meanwhile, experts explain the offensive launched at the end of June by the Taliban, the desire to improve their position in negotiations with the official Kabul.

According to Vadim Kozyulin, the Afghan authorities found themselves in a difficult situation due to failures in the training of the regular army.

The expert blamed the local authorities and the United States for the weak combat capability of government forces, which had been supplying and training Afghan army units for two decades.

“What are the Americans doing now?

By and large, they aggravate the situation for official Kabul with their hasty, flight-like withdrawal of troops.

The United States often actually abandons the equipment, which most often goes to the Taliban, ”explained Kozyulin.

• Loading a US armored vehicle for export from Afghanistan

• Reuters

• © US Army / Sgt.

  Jeffery J. Harris / Handout

Nevertheless, the expert does not expect the Taliban to seize power and predicts that a "military equilibrium" will be achieved soon.

“The government in Kabul is recovering from the shock of the first defeats since the aggravation.

I think that the authorities of the republic are realizing the need to act independently, to concentrate the available resources and to gain a foothold at least on the current frontiers, ”says Kozyulin.

Omar Nessar, for his part, suggested that the balance of power in Afghanistan could become clearer in August-September.

However, the analyst refrained from forecasting the development of the situation on the battlefields and negotiation platforms. 

“Today it is difficult to make any assumptions.

But what plays against Kabul is that the Americans have let it down very much.

All of a sudden, they left the Bagram base, abandoned a lot of military equipment.

This negatively affected the morale of the army.

And the Afghan authorities took this behavior as a sign that they might be denied any assistance at all, "Nessar summed up.

* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.

** "Islamic State" (IS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.