Beirut -
The forces of power in Lebanon have moved to the stage of searching for an alternative personality for President Saad Hariri, after he apologized for the task of forming the government, following a severe dispute between him and President Michel Aoun and their political team, which lasted about 9 months.
While waiting for Aoun to call for binding parliamentary consultations - to nominate a new president to take over the task of forming the government - questions arose about its expected date, and whether the parliamentary blocs would go to it under the weight of understanding or conflict, or that some of them would announce their boycott of the consultations instead of participating in them, for considerations that take pact and sectarian dimensions, According to many.
Constitutional imperatives
After the resignation of a government or the apology of a designated prime minister, the constitution obliges the President of the Republic to call for parliamentary consultations, to mix the opinion of the deputies regarding the assignment of a new person to head the government, according to what lawyer and constitutional expert Antoine Sfeir indicates.
Sfeir said - to Al-Jazeera Net - "Although the constitution did not impose a specific deadline for calling for consultations, it should be immediate, and the president of the country can take some time, on average, a week, to leave room for political understandings before the consultations are held in the Republican Palace."
So far, President Aoun has not called for parliamentary consultations, amid a state of confusion and political polarization reaching its peak, especially after Hariri - head of the Future Movement and the largest Sunni parliamentary bloc - announced his bloc's abstention from naming a new prime minister.
Sources close to Hariri also report - to Al Jazeera Net - that the latter may go to the option of boycotting parliamentary consultations, to escalate against Aoun's political team.
What are the personal qualities required to head the government?
The Lebanese political system divides the three presidencies among the major sects (the republic for the Maronites, the parliament for the Shiites, and the prime minister for the Sunnis), and some customs were imposed on the quality and qualities of the personalities who hold these positions, under several slogans such as parity, constitutional pact and sectarian balance, in a small country that includes about 18 sects.
Here, Salah Salam - writer and editor-in-chief of Al-Liwa newspaper - indicates that any person assigned to form a government must have the approval and support of 3 parties, to ensure what is known as the "Sunni cover", namely Prime Minister Hariri, and the club of former heads of government (comprising - to Hariri’s side - Najib Mikati, Tammam Salam and Fouad Siniora), and Dar Al-Fatwa Al-Islami.
Salam points out - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - that there is a reservation on the part of these parties to nominate any candidate, and therefore, political and sectarian coverage may not be available for every candidate who does not adhere to the policy followed by Hariri during his assignment;
He recalled that it was the era of President Aoun who raised the slogan that the first official should be the strongest in his sect.
And if it is not possible to find a figure who enjoys Sunni cover - according to Salam - the imbalance will worsen, and open the state to further dissolution and chaos.
Hezbollah embarrassment
Observers believe that Hariri's apology put Hezbollah in an embarrassing position, because it was unable to convince its ally Michel Aoun to facilitate Hariri's task, and because the initiative of his ally, the Speaker of Parliament, who remained committed to assigning Hariri, did not succeed.
Here, writer and political analyst Wassim Bazzi - who is close to Hezbollah - points out that the concept of pressure on Aoun's team - the owner of the largest Christian bloc in Parliament - is out of the question.
During the trip to assign Hariri - according to Bazzi - there was a clear distinction between the position of Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement (headed by Gibran Bassil), and with Hariri's admission, because the party was standing behind Berri by insisting on facilitating Hariri's mission.
He said that what prompted Hariri to withdraw from his mission was his dispute with Saudi Arabia as an external reason, which is no less important than his dispute with Aoun and his team as an internal reason.
And the political analyst indicates - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that Hezbollah does not set the parliamentary elections as a standard goal for choosing the personality of the next prime minister, but there are several criteria that it gives priority, including:
First
, that the president-designate enjoys the blessing of the Sunni community, and that his sect's path is not closed to him, especially with Hariri.
Second
, to be able to form a government that provides a minimum level of national consensus.
Third
, he should have extensive experience, and have internal and external relationships that make the margins of movement available to him.
Fourth
, to help mitigate the impact of the crisis and collapse on people.
He said that Hezbollah does not want to form a government of specialists in the sense that it promoted following the French initiative, neither in terms of the president nor in terms of members.
Accordingly, according to Bazzi, the party prefers to go to a mixed government, such as the one previously proposed by President Najib Mikati, on the eve of Mustafa Adib's apology for his mission before assigning Hariri.
Bazzi added that Hezbollah is keen to maintain the connection with Hariri, and to be satisfied with naming a person to succeed him, out of concern for the elements of cooling the Sunni-Shiite relationship, rather than estrangement and tension.
In Bazzi's opinion, President Mikati is highly acceptable, but the basis for his candidacy is the position of the Sunni Taif towards him, and "if the cover is provided, Hezbollah will be flexible in dealing with its nomination."
Former Lebanese Prime Ministers (from right) Tammam Salam, Fouad Siniora, Saad Hariri, Najib Mikati (French)
fan names
Following Hariri's apology, several names were circulated in the media to take over as prime minister, with Mikati at the forefront.
As a reminder, before joining Hariri with Hariri in the club of former prime ministers, he was Hariri's most prominent opponent within the Sunni community, and together they fought a fierce parliamentary battle in the 2018 elections, in Tripoli, in the north of the country.
However, Mikati's circles denied his acceptance of the assignment to head the government, in line with the position of the Unified Club, and in defense of what they describe as "the powers of the prime minister."
And circles close to Mikati indicate - to Al Jazeera Net - that he refuses the assignment, because the facilities that Aoun did not give to Hariri will not be provided to him, and "a rejection of new patterns of forming governments that contradict the constitution and the spirit of the Taif Agreement."
External factors
Externally, journalist and political analyst Johnny Mounir considers that America and France are only interested in forming a government quickly, rather than discussing the qualities of the designated president.
The political analyst also believes that what is required for Saudi Arabia is to assign a personality outside the influence of Hezbollah, and to form it without it, and this is a kind of internal impossibility;
Therefore, "Saudi Arabia may not give cover to any government under President Aoun, and the figures that accept it (such as Nawaf Salam) are rejected by Hezbollah."
Hence, Iran's most important role - according to Mounir - which plays the role of "vetoing" - through Hezbollah as its largest regional representative - emerges on every figure who sees that its presence contradicts its interests in Lebanon, regionally, and in its conflict with America.
As for Egypt, which supported Hariri, its position is closer to the French position, according to Mounir, that is, to form a government that will implement reforms, and not be dominated by a political color.
Mounir said that President Aoun - before calling for consultations - wanted to find consensus on the nominated name, and to agree with him on the conditions he had previously imposed on Hariri, most notably naming Christian ministers.
It is considered that the lack of the required conditions, both internally and externally, makes the fate of the consultation date ambiguous and postponed.
Accordingly, Mounir believes - according to his data - that Western countries - led by France - will resort to harsher sanctions against Lebanese politicians, especially after the expected humanitarian aid to Lebanon at the international conference called by Paris on August 4th.
This blockage prompted some political forces to talk about activating the caretaker government.
Antoine Sfeir explains that the constitution did not provide for this concept, because the government, after its resignation, is carrying out its tasks, as a procedural authority in the management of public utilities, within the narrow criterion of conducting business.
And because the atmosphere does not suggest going to assign a new president, Sfeir expects the Diab government to continue to lead the parliamentary elections in the spring of 2022, and “perhaps to take over the powers of the President of the Republic after the end of his term, if agreement is not also reached on the name of Aoun’s replacement president.”