Russia has been urging step after step, maneuvering again and again in order to restore its ancient influence in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, with which it has enjoyed strong relations at the military and political levels for a long time.
Despite the difficulties it faced in entering the region at the level it desired, it has been present in one way or another. Since 2008, its relations with the region have been steadily growing.
close old relationships
The relations between Russia and Ethiopia extend back more than a century. The Ethiopians remember that it was the Russian weapon that defeated the Italians in the Battle of Adwa in 1895. It is important to mention the important points in this relationship:
The beginning of the appearance of the Russian diplomat in Ethiopia was in 1902.
Official relations between the two countries began in 1943.
The (former) Soviet Union established naval, air and naval bases on the Eritrean islands that were under Ethiopian occupation at the time.
Relations reached their climax during the rule of the Derg under the leadership of Colonel Mengistu Haile Mar Yam. Moscow supported Ethiopia with military aid amounting to $11 billion in its war with Somalia over the Ogaden region in the 1970s.
The Ethiopian-Russian military cooperation did not stop even after the fall of Mengistu, but it was not at the level that satisfies it, but it was waiting for opportunities, even when it came under the crises that Ethiopia has been facing in the recent period.
Abi Ahmed and Putin's meeting at the Sochi Summit 2019 opened the prospects for cooperation between the two countries in the military field (Reuters)
Sochi summit is a step in paving the road
At the Russia-Africa Summit held in Moscow in Sochi in 2019, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met with President Vladimir Putin, and agreed to strengthen military cooperation and increase Russian military sales to Addis Ababa, under which it received the Pantsir-S1 missile defense system. It was also agreed between the two parties to build a nuclear power plant in Ethiopia, and before that and in 2017, Moscow listed Ethiopia among the most important Russian arms markets in Africa.
Russia's exploitation of the military cooperation agreement
Russian policy in the Horn of Africa is known as "committed opportunism" that does not have specific constants or specific limits, as it works with opposites and contradictions, and in the Horn of Africa there is a lot of evidence.
Russia provided arms to Ethiopia and Somalia, which were fighting over the former Ogaden region, and in the war between these two countries in 1998-2000, it sold arms to both sides of the conflict, with the aim of moving the arms market, in addition to taking advantage of the opportunity to decline Egypt’s relations with the United States after the coup against President Mohamed Morsi and Egypt’s need for arms, and raised the the level of military relations with it.
Thus, Moscow hunts for gaps and looks for opportunities without entering into an exhausting struggle with its competitors.
The nature of the agreement
The two parties to the military agreement held talks entitled “The 11th Meeting of the Joint Technical Committees” that lasted for 3 days, which resulted in the two parties signing the agreement, but the acumen of those watching the matter in Ethiopia does not miss the political and security conditions that it has been going through since February 4, 2020.
The setbacks suffered by the federal army in Ethiopia, the West exerting tremendous pressure on it, and imposition of sanctions on it through restrictions on those whom the United States describes as being behind the abuses in the Tigray war, the freezing of aid, and Ethiopian accusations of unnamed parties in coordination with Tigray in the face of the central government.
In addition to Addis Ababa's desire to put messages in the mail of its allies that it has alternatives and that its margin of maneuver is possible and available:
Develop existing relationships to a better level.
Army training and modernization.
Russian arms sales.
Developing the technical and technical capabilities of the Ethiopian army.
Russia realizes the difficulty of making a breakthrough on the side of Egypt and Sudan due to their close relationship with Washington (Reuters)
Russia's goals of the agreement
Within the framework of the Russian strategy to return to Africa with the policy of debt forgiveness in exchange for the purchase of weapons, Moscow was able, with a lightning speed, to penetrate into Africa, and achieve significant strategic gains. Between 2014 and 2020, it was able to build military relations with at least 20 African countries, and the number is expected to increase. .
Russia has become the largest supplier of arms to sub-Saharan Africa.
In the context of this approach, it has forgiven Ethiopia a debt of 163.6 million dollars, to open the door for military cooperation to it at its widest:
In the short term, it seeks to achieve the following:
Expand arms sales and monopolize and deepen the Ethiopian arms market in the long run.
Rebuilding real alliances in the Horn of Africa.
Reclaiming the influence and privilege it lost 30 years ago.
Participation in the new conflict tour in Africa, and the reservation of important sites in it.
Exploiting the region as a launching pad to expand its influence in other regions of the continent, as it is a gateway to Central and Southern Africa.
And
long -
term endeavor to achieve:
Building a base for it in the Red Sea, which has been located on its eastern and western banks for a long time.
Strengthening its influence in the Middle East in light of the link between the security of the Horn of Africa and the security of the Gulf region, in light of the new international policy
Searching for excellence in dealing with Africans by building successful models in military, security and political cooperation.
Put pressure on Egypt and Sudan to grant Russia the establishment of bases in the Red Sea, a strategic goal for Moscow.
Ethiopia seeks to win Russia's position on the Renaissance Dam file due to its importance in the Security Council (communication sites)
Ethiopia's goals of the agreement:
Although Ethiopia has been a traditional ally of Western powers, its geopolitical and demographic situation gives it a competitive advantage over the competing powers in the region on land and at sea.
Strengthening military capabilities in training and arming, especially after the emergence of major weaknesses in the recent Tigray war, and the failure of the Ethiopian army in its missions in the region.
He won the Russian position on the Renaissance Dam file at the UN Security Council, after the American and European position that differed with Abi Ahmed in ways of dealing with internal relations, and its results seemed to appear.
Ethiopia's need to build strong security agencies in light of the Russians' superiority in cybersecurity.
Ethiopia's need for advanced defensive systems to protect the Renaissance Dam against any attack by Egypt.
Finding an ally that offers what traditional allies do not offer at some important junctures, such as the situation that Ethiopia is currently facing.
Prospects for military cooperation between the two parties
Despite Moscow's keenness to seize any opportunity presented to it in order to restore its old influence or create new opportunities, it is aware of the rugged road it is taking and the minefield it is entering due to the Western veto of any approach to its traditional strongholds.
That is why its strategy in dealing with such opportunities was characterized by extreme opportunism, taking advantage of this hypothesis and building rules of play on it, so as to achieve the gains that it plans to achieve, especially since it does not have anything to offer at the level of economic projects, as China does.
Therefore, this will probably be the approach that Russia will use in its approaches, which is to open markets for its military industries, and to sell electronic technologies related to intelligence and security work, and it is difficult to expect the successes of any strategy without an economic backing on the African continent.
The "Ennahda" card and the weighting tip in favor of Ethiopia
Russia has been keen not to interfere in the file of the Renaissance Dam, and it has issued a number of positions in which it shows a balance between the parties to the conflict, and made a proposal to avoid the negative consequences of the Renaissance Dam, on Egypt and Sudan, through the recommendations of Russian hydrologists, which were submitted to Khartoum at the end of the days of Al-Bashir’s rule, The same matter was also discussed with the Egyptian Foreign Minister.
But with the emergence of the historical opportunity in Ethiopia at this historical juncture for it, Russia demonstrated a position, to say the least, in favor of Addis Ababa, at the meeting of the UN Security Council on July 8.
Which the Egyptians considered a shift in the Russian position against them, and in favor of their rival (Ethiopia), despite its keenness to please Cairo as an ally as well.
But it seems that the balance of interests seemed to be greater with Ethiopia and not with Egypt, especially as it realizes that the latter is linked to agreements with the West that it cannot bypass no matter how close it claims to Russia.
In addition to the Russian desire to crowd out other powers in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, in the hope that it will gain a historical opportunity to restore its former glory.
The Russian Appearance and American Concern:
The United States was able to prevent the Russians from building a base for them in Djibouti by putting pressure on President Omar Guelleh, and is also putting great pressure on the Sudanese transitional government, in order to break al-Bashir’s agreement with the Russians, prior to the fall of his rule, in giving Russia a site for logistical support in the Red Sea, and here perhaps It takes advantage of the opportunity to develop relations with Ethiopia and Eritrea, and establishes a base in the Red Sea, which increases American concern.
Added to this is the Western concern and fear of a Chinese-Russian bloc against its interests, especially since Moscow and Beijing have bilateral and collective agreements such as "BRICS", which is considered a major challenge to Western influence in general and the US in particular.
summary
Although the overwhelming Russian desire to find a foothold in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, and what the cooperation agreement with Addis Ababa presents as strength cards for Moscow and enhance its influence in the region, the Russians’ ability to challenge Washington is limited, due to the strength of the alliances that the latter established with the rulers, and its dense presence and its allies. On the ground, security and militarily, especially after the domination of Sudan through its allies.
As long as Moscow follows an opportunistic behavior, it may achieve a number of interests, but it will not be able to build long-term strategic alliances at the expense of the other camp, but at the same time it will not stop searching for permanent holes, repeatedly in the wall of American hegemony in the century of permanent crises, in search of For a moment of balance or predominance of its vision and interests.