Beirut -

Analysts rule out the formation of a government in Lebanon by consensus between President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri. If this is achieved, it will be described as a political miracle, after the conflicts took a personal turn between the two men and their teams.

The contradictions of the encounter

In form, Hariri broke the state of political stalemate, about 9 months after he was assigned the task of forming a government with the support of the French initiative and the initiative of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (Hezbollah ally), as well as with the support of some international and Arab parties, most notably Egypt, from which he returned yesterday, Wednesday. On July 14, he headed to the Republic Palace, where he presented Aoun with a new government lineup of 24 ministers.

The Egyptian presidency had announced its full support for Hariri's political path, which aims to restore stability in Lebanon, as she put it.

After their meeting, Hariri hoped that Aoun would respond to the formation proposal within 24 hours, and the Presidency of the Republic issued a statement in which it indicated that Aoun had received a government formation that included new names, and a new distribution of ministerial portfolios and sects, different from what was previously agreed upon, and that Aoun informed Hariri that This lineup will be the subject of research, study and consultation.

However, in content, pessimism prevailed over all the positives that were rumored, as Aoun is unlikely to abide by the time limit set by Hariri to announce his position on the formation.

Informed sources indicate that Hariri presented a lineup that includes names that are unacceptable to some political forces, and that he ignored Aoun's demand to name Christian ministers, specifically the names of the ministers of interior and justice.

What are the scenarios in the coming hours?

Announcing the formation of the government, Hariri’s apology for the assignment, or the resumption of the stage of open dissent are all scenarios on the table, depending on Aoun’s position on the proposed formation.

This anticipation coincides with a wide diplomatic movement towards Lebanon, the latest of which was the meetings of the French presidential envoy, Patrick Dorrell, with Lebanese officials, where he urged them to expedite the formation of the government.

Here, writer and political analyst Ibrahim Haider considers that the lineup presented by Hariri is the last chance after more than 15 meetings that brought the two presidents together in vain, at a time when the situation in the country is descending toward more chaos, and economic collapse as a result of the lira losing more than 95% of its value.

Before this last meeting, Haidar considers that Hariri was closer to announcing an apology for his mission, but he waited in this step based on internal and regional contacts that seek to test attempts to the last breath.

Haidar suggested that Aoun would not agree to Hariri’s formation, and the pretext might be the failure to observe the mechanism for naming Christian ministers, but the core problem lies in Aoun’s refusal to complete his mission, according to Haidar.

He considers that internal dissent has become the main problem of obstruction under the conditions set by all political parties, in addition to regional obstacles, which may be less severe, but effective, particularly that the conflict of the two opposing axes (Iran and America) with their allies is intensifying in the Lebanese arena.

"As long as the regional files are complex, settlements in Lebanon over the government file will continue to be blocked," he said.

The political analyst rules out agreeing on a replacement for Hariri if he apologizes, otherwise "the experience of former Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adeeb, who Hariri came to succeed, will be repeated."

For his part, journalist and political analyst Hussein Ayoub stops at the Egyptian position in support of Hariri, and links it to several regional considerations, but it gave Hariri an Arab leverage, and considers that it clearly differed from the Saudi position rejecting the nomination of Hariri, which had previously been his weakness throughout the assignment.

Ayoub talks - to Al Jazeera Net - about 3 possible scenarios after meeting Hariri and Aoun: The first is the weakest possibility, which is the possibility of announcing the formation of a government by consensus between the two men with minor amendments to it, in parallel with Arab and international efforts to make Hariri's mission a success.

The second is that Aoun was not given a position on the squad within the deadline set by Hariri, or that he did not allow him to discuss it, and thus Hariri considered this disregard to be tantamount to rejecting it, and he might then apologize.

The third is that Aoun announces his rejection of the formation, and thus Hariri also apologizes.

The political analyst considers that the most likely scenario at present is Hariri's apology for his mission.

And if he apologizes, it will be very difficult to agree on an alternative figure for him, because the position of the club of former prime ministers is moving in two directions: either boycotting the consultations that Aoun will conduct to name an alternative figure for Hariri, or participating without naming any other figure.

In the event that Hariri moved to the opposition bank, "the street will become a desirable area for investment by various parties," according to Ayoub.

Here, sources close to the atmosphere of the Future Movement headed by Hariri indicate that the debate within the movement revolves around which of them won Hariri in the upcoming elections: to be prime minister, or to stand on the opposition front, with the second option following the opportunities to “benefit” popularly with slogans, Such as restoring the powers of the presidency and the absence of sectarian pacts within the authority.

international attention

In another context, writer and political analyst Rosana Boumansef considers that if Aoun and Hariri have positivity, the details of the dispute between them can be overlooked, in light of the facilities granted externally to Lebanon, and if "international efforts do not bear fruit, in exchange for the continuation of the political forces in their stubbornness, it means that there are An invisible suspicious thing."

She points out - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that the international effort is forcibly directed towards Lebanon, especially since most countries weighing the Lebanese file are preoccupied with other priorities, and at the forefront of which is France, which is preparing for the presidential elections.

Boumansef believes that the internal forces of the international and Arab community are likely to be convinced not to form a government entrusted with implementing reforms, but rather to form an election government with the approach of the presidential and parliamentary elections in the spring of 2022.

However, why does the political class not respond to the international efforts made towards Lebanon?

The political analyst answers that it is surprising that all international efforts have not achieved their goal, specifically France, Russia and Egypt, and considers that the problem is Iran's absence from these efforts.

It says that any international effort made towards Lebanon will not achieve its goals if Iran is not talked about, as it constitutes a weight in Lebanon through Hezbollah, which seems strongly concerned with the government file.