The Taliban could take over the country in the 6 to 12 months after the withdrawal
Future scenarios after the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan soon
The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan will enable the "Taliban" to control the country.
AFP
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The United States is on the verge of withdrawing its last soldiers from Afghanistan and ending the 20-year war launched after the September 11, 2001 attacks.
American operations have been essentially limited to the minimum since the signing of an agreement with the Taliban in February 2020 stipulating their departure in exchange for the start of peace negotiations between the movement and the government, talks that are still in a dead end.
When they leave for good, the Americans will keep only a few soldiers in place to protect their embassy.
Here are some possible scenarios for the future of Afghanistan:
■ Will the American withdrawal end the war?
■■ If this withdrawal, which is supposed to be completed by September 11, ends the longest war the United States has fought, the conflict will continue on Afghan soil.
Nothing suggests that it will end soon.
It appears that the Taliban are betting on a military victory that would allow them to overthrow President Ashraf Ghani.
It has recently taken control of dozens of additional areas, especially in the countryside, but the Afghan army still controls the major cities.
"At the moment, the battles will intensify, and the Afghan forces will face difficulties in confronting them militarily alone," said Barry Ares, an Afghan security expert.
According to recent analyzes issued by the US intelligence services, the "Taliban" could control the country in the six to 12 months after the withdrawal.
Both the Taliban and the government assert daily that they inflicted heavy losses on the other, but it is not possible to independently verify their assertions.
But a campaign of targeted assassinations against figures from Afghan civil society has subsided in recent weeks.
■ Will the Afghan army be able to maintain security?
■■ This remains unknown, and the possibility of a civil war is not ruled out.
The US Air Force has been a decisive factor in the conflict thus far, providing vital support to government forces when they faced danger.
In a sign of the prevailing concern, the government launched an appeal to mobilize militias to fight the Taliban.
Some analysts fear that this will further inflame the situation.
"This strategy must be well implemented, well organized and controlled, otherwise it may be counterproductive," said a foreign security expert, who declined to be named.
With the gradual return of former warlords to the scene, the risk is high that the country will plunge into civil war and that new armed factions will emerge to seize power.
■ Will there be a political settlement?
■■ President Ghani wants a ceasefire with the "Taliban" in order to organize elections from which a "peace government" will emerge.
He rejected calls to form an unelected transitional government that would include the Taliban.
But the United States supports such a unity government, and is pressing for the Taliban and the government to reach an agreement in Doha, where the negotiations that began in September are still deadlocked.
Although it did not give clarifications about its intentions, the "Taliban" movement intends to re-establish an "Islamic emirate" that preserves the rights of citizens under "Islamic law".
Four presidential elections have been held in Afghanistan since the overthrow of the "Taliban" regime in 2001, and millions of Afghans have adopted this democratic and pluralistic system, although the voting processes are often marred by fraud.
With the seemingly imminent return of the "Taliban" to power, observers fear a decline in the democratic path.
"At the moment, the (Taliban) seems convinced that they can take power by force," said political analyst Ramesh Salehi.
"This is a battle that will determine whether democracy triumphs over ideological forces," he added.
■ What is the fate of Afghan women?
■■ There are strong fears that women will lose the rights they have gained since the turn of the century.
When the Taliban were in power, they forbade women from working and stoned those accused of crimes such as adultery.
After the fall of the Taliban regime, many Afghan women entered politics or became journalists, activists or judges.
The Taliban maintains that it will respect women's rights according to Islamic law, but human rights advocates point out that Sharia is interpreted in multiple ways in the Muslim world.
"There is a general feeling of insecurity among women who believe that extremists will once again send them home," said activist Hosai Andar.
"But they will not give up this time, there will be resistance," she added.
■ What are the economic prospects?
■■ Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world.
It is heavily indebted and dependent on foreign aid.
Although it has large mineral reserves that its neighbors such as China or India want to benefit from, the security situation has never made it possible to develop mining activity sufficiently.
Much of the national wealth comes from drug smuggling, especially heroin, of which Afghanistan is by far the largest producer in the world.
In November, international donors made pledges until 2024, but Afghanistan fears they will use the departure of foreign forces to renege on their promises.
"The economy is already witnessing a major downturn, and the catastrophic unemployment rate will basically explode," Salehi says.
Although it has large mineral reserves that its neighbors such as China or India want to take advantage of, the security situation has never made it possible to develop mining activity sufficiently.
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