Afghanistan: imminent victory of the Taliban in the face of the debacle of the regular army

Afghan security forces at a checkpoint in Kandahar, July 9, 2021. © JAVED TANVEER / AFP

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5 mins

China has repatriated 210 of its nationals from Afghanistan.

The withdrawal of American troops is accelerating and the Taliban forces claim to control 85% of the territory.

Foreigners and Afghans fear an imminent total victory for the Taliban.

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China has called on all of its citizens to leave the neighboring country. The Afghans themselves are looking abroad. Thousands of soldiers have reportedly already fled to Tajikistan. They were reportedly abandoned by their leaders, without supplies, besieged as they tried to defend the border post between the two countries. Some of them describe a chaotic situation marked by the lack of communication with the military hierarchy in Kabul.

In the past two months, the Taliban have conquered large portions of the territory.

The offensive was launched at the start of the soon-to-end withdrawal of US and NATO forces.

This is the end of twenty years of military intervention triggered by the September 11 attacks.

Everyone now expects the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in the coming weeks.

Political negotiations between the government and the insurgents have stalled.

► See also: Report - Afghanistan: the Taliban are gaining ground, the populations are considering exile

The fall of Kabul is what Pierre Servent, an expert in military strategy, also fears: “

The Taliban have beaten the strongest international coalition that has ever been assembled under the sky.

So it is obvious that one day or another, but for me, it is a matter of weeks, Kabul will fall.

It cannot be otherwise!

And this is something that we have known for an extremely long time.

 "

Some resistance

This Saturday, July 10, the governor of Badghis province, Hessamuddin Shams, said the Taliban had again attacked the provincial capital Qala-i-Naw, but had been pushed back.

Qala-i-Naw is the first major city the Taliban had managed to penetrate since the start of their offensive, seizing several official buildings on Thursday, before being driven out the next day.

The Afghan authorities said on Saturday they were preparing to launch an offensive to retake the most important border post with Iran, which the Taliban seized the day before.

The return of the warlords?

The weakening of the army strengthens the position of the warlords, fueling the fears that Afghanistan sinks into a new civil war as after the departure in 1989 of the Red Army, intervened ten years earlier in support of the communist regime. Afghan in the face of an Islamic insurgency.

For Pierre Servent, the warlords have no interest in opposing the Taliban head-on, but rather in defending their territory:

Pierre Servent on the role of warlords

Oriane Verdier

The nature of Afghanistan is to be, not a central state, but a state controlled by a number of feudal lords.

So of course, the warlords - since we called them that - who had managed to keep their territory, will keep it and will assert, first, their personal interest.

But they have no concrete interest in allying themselves.

Their interest is to dominate the area in which they live and in which they have established their power.

So they have no concrete interest in wanting to enter a war that they will lose, against the Taliban.

Moreover, faced with the Taliban advance in the north, one of the region's warlords claimed to mobilize their men.

If these local militia commanders could regain control of their region, they will not be a game-changer nationally.

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• Afghanistan

• Taliban

• Defense