At the last meeting of the “OPEC Plus” alliance, the UAE strongly opposed a proposal that paves the way for an agreement, describing it as “unfair”, causing the agreement to be postponed, which could lead to obstructing the price balancing process in the crude oil market during the Covid-19 epidemic crisis. .

The UAE position poses a rare challenge to Saudi Arabia in the oil market from a close ally, and the Kingdom is the largest exporter of crude in the world and the owner of the largest economy in the Arab world.

But the contrast between the two "allies" began before the oil dispute, and while observers say that a complete rupture is unlikely between the two countries, the new competitive spirit will intensify in light of the great change that Saudi Arabia is witnessing.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is leading an unprecedented campaign to diversify the oil-dependent economy, taking advantage of the UAE's successful experience in this field. The young prince has always been considered close to Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, knowing that they have not appeared together for a while.

Economic competition at the expense of friendship

Experts believe that economic competition is at the forefront of the reasons for the discrepancy between the two countries, at a time when the Gulf states are trying to benefit as much as possible from their huge oil reserves while facing the beginning of the end of the oil era, and Saudi Arabia is in dire need of huge funding for its economic program before the transition to renewable energy sources is completed.

The Saudi expert close to the ruling circle, Ali Al-Shihabi, says that the kingdom "suffered 50 years of inactivity in terms of economic policy, and now it has to catch up."

Al Shehabi adds that the Emiratis "will understand that they have to make some space for that."

And former White House official Christine Fontenrose - who is currently responsible for the Saudi file at the Atlantic Council Institute - believes that the two neighbors decided that "they should prioritize their financial future over their friendship."

"There is no grudge here, just economic facts," she continues.

Saudi Arabia has long been a sleeping economic giant, but it is now competing with Dubai (the region's main business and services hub) by developing sectors such as tourism and technology.

With limited incentives, the kingdom issued an ultimatum to foreign companies last February that those seeking government contracts would have to move their regional headquarters to the kingdom by 2024.

"There were some strikes under the belt from our neighbor, but things will remain under control, God willing," said an adviser close to the Emirati ruling circles, who asked not to be identified. "We welcome the competition."

The Emirati position opposing the OPEC Plus agreement poses a rare challenge to Saudi Arabia in the oil market from a close ally (Getty Images)

The beginning of the "quagmire" of the Yemen war

The first difference in the relationship became clear in mid-2019, when the UAE hurriedly exited the catastrophic conflict in Yemen after it played with Saudi Arabia the most prominent role in the military coalition led by the Kingdom in this country against the Iranian-backed Houthis since 2015.

Riyadh found itself still struggling to get out of Yemen's "quagmire" with minimal damage.

"Was there some Saudi sensitivity when the Emiratis quickly got out of Yemen? Yes," says Al-Shihabi, adding, "The Saudis hoped that the Emiratis would be less hurried (...) and more coordinated."

single normalization

In parallel, major regional diplomatic moves highlighted another difference in views. The UAE normalized its relations with Israel in 2020 in an agreement brokered by the United States, and later expanded to include Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. Riyadh did not follow suit despite Washington’s encouragement.

The divergent interests were usually dealt with with great caution, but this time the differences began to come out into the open, but analysts confirm that the two neighbors are very far from the division, and Fontenrose says, "Talking about a rift is exaggerated (...), both of them are trying to secure their economic future."