Since 2011, the construction of what will soon become the most important hydroelectric dam in the continent of Africa has turned into the heart of a tripartite conflict that threatens to destabilize the Horn of Africa, due to Egypt's fears about the future of the Nile River, on which its water resources depend by 90%, and which this gigantic construction stands in the way Its flow, and because of Sudan’s concern now over the security of its facilities unless Addis Ababa cooperates with it, and finally because of what Ethiopia sees as a unified project for its population threatened with disintegration, and of the fateful importance of its economy.

After a period of talks between the three countries, the negotiations ended in a dead end, but the UN Security Council will meet today, Thursday, July 8, to discuss the issue of the Renaissance Dam at the request of Cairo and Khartoum, which announced that they had received information indicating the start of Addis Ababa - even if it did not announce that. - The second mobilization of the dam through a "unilateral measure", and they expressed their rejection of this and considered it a "flagrant violation of international law."

In two separate reports, the French newspaper Le Monde and the French magazine Le Point dealt with this topic, initially focusing on the description of this project, as Le Monde said that it is located 15 kilometers from the Sudanese border, and covers an area of ​​1874 square kilometres, to add Le Point said that its total capacity is 74 billion cubic meters of water, noting the importance of completing it on time for the Ethiopians and their leaders.

A view of the Renaissance Dam (Reuters)

Divergent fears

Two days before the Security Council meeting on this issue, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry met his Sudanese counterpart, Maryam al-Mahdi in New York, and they expressed in a statement their “strong rejection” of the filling initiative and called on the Security Council to “support their position on a binding agreement on filling and operating the dam,” and will meet The council today, at the request of Tunisia, a non-permanent member of the council and representative of the Arab world on behalf of Egypt and Sudan, despite Ethiopia's opposition to this meeting.

The Security Council, according to a draft obtained by Le Point, will ask “Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to resume their negotiations in order to reach, within 6 months, a text of a binding agreement on filling and managing the dam, ensuring Ethiopia’s ability to generate hydroelectric power from the Renaissance Dam while avoiding significant damage to water security.” in my downstream country."

Although Sudan and Egypt - as Le Monde says - strongly reject what they consider a unilateral measure and agree to criticize Ethiopia, the two countries' concerns are different, as Khartoum fears for the security of its facilities very close to the dam from the flow of water it does not control and does not know when or how much it will be, in While Cairo fears, in the long run, the waters of the Nile, on which it relies as a semi-single water resource, will diminish, due to the control of its flow through the Renaissance Dam, which it has no control over.

Le Monde indicated that Sudan, in front of the fait accompli, was forced to take precautionary measures - as the director of the Roseires Dam, Abdullah Abdel Rahman - says, and that they released less water, after they were opening the flood gates to allow all rainwater to pass downstream, which It means that there is a deficit in the production of hydroelectric power in the country, due to the threat posed by the Renaissance Dam, where “there are 74 billion cubic meters of water stored 100 kilometers from here and we do not know how much of it will reach us or at what time. We read it in the newspapers. We are in the unknown."

missed opportunity

The Sudanese authorities recall the July 2020 incident when Ethiopia, without prior warning, proceeded with the first stage of filling its reservoir. The level of the Blue Nile decreased until it affected production and caused a water shortage for 3 days in the capital. Therefore, “we need to store sufficient quantities of water - As Abdul Rahman says - in case the supply stops suddenly.

One month after this incident, Sudan experienced unprecedented floods that killed about 100 people and destroyed or damaged more than 100,000 homes. This could and should have been avoided with coordination and dialogue, says Mustafa Al-Zubair, Director of the Water Management Technical Committee. And a member of the Sudanese negotiating team, "The Ethiopians could have saved us if they had delayed the first mobilization or completed it in stages."

Because cooperation between neighbors is vital, Le Monde stated that Sudan "has shown since the beginning of the negotiations that it agrees to the construction of the Ethiopian dam", because it sees it as an opportunity in the long run to generate cheap electricity and to control its water resources, and agricultural engineer Ezzat Taher says, "The Renaissance Dam will benefit agriculture." Sudanese".

Although the Renaissance Dam could benefit the ailing Sudanese economy, Khartoum is asking for a binding agreement to set at least certain technical provisions, as Sudanese Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas says, “It is urgent that we obtain hydrological information from the source to operate our facilities safely,” but Ethiopia is against it, as it says Le Monde.

According to Yasser Abbas, 90% of the technical differences were settled during the negotiations, but "the excessive politicization of the issue complicates the task and pushes us away from the solution," noting that "Sudan will only use peaceful, legal and diplomatic means."

Le Monde considered that the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abi Ahmed, made a mistake when he did not give priority to his relationship with his Sudanese counterpart, Abdullah Hamdok, and missed a favorable and without problems, to complete this project, which Ethiopia has made the cornerstone of its development, and which will provide electricity to two-thirds of its population of 115 million people. After investing more than $4.6 billion.