A similar incident necessitates 30 years ago.. What after the scenes of the Ethiopian army prisoners in the Tigray region?

Addis Ababa -

The Tigray Liberation Front replayed the scenes of 7,000 captives of the central Ethiopian government soldiers, last Friday, in the city of Mekle, the capital of the region, to the memory of what happened 30 years ago, when 60,000 fighters from the forces of the Mengistu Haile Mariam government collapsed, They crossed the Sudanese border under the blows of the front.

Within 3 days in May 1991, the fighters of the socialist government that ruled the country with an iron fist (1974-1991), arrived in the vicinity of the Sudanese state of Kassala, with all their military equipment, following the strikes of the Tigrayan Liberation Front and its allies from the Ethiopian opponents, and from the "Eritrean People's Front for Justice". Led by the current president, Isaias Afwerki.

It was as if an earthquake struck the Ethiopian scene at that time, diverted the course of politics, the economy and the military, overthrew the central government, and allowed the rebels to control all of the Ethiopian soil after 1991, and even extended its impact to some countries in the region.

So will what happened in Mikkeli have a similar effect?

What are the repercussions of the scenes of thousands of captured soldiers, some of whom were wounded, on the Ethiopian army, and Ethiopia's political and military future?

Army morale

Asrat Deniro, one of the Ethiopian military leaders, said that the Ethiopian army is ready to protect the second filling of the Renaissance Dam, which is located in the region, but Gabriel Weld Qabro, a former army officer, told Al Jazeera Net that "the military commander used the Renaissance Dam to maintain the morale of his soldiers, as it is the largest development project." Ethiopia adopted him, and there is consensus on him, and his speech carried a message to government opponents in Benishangul so that they would not take advantage of what happened in Tigray, to escalate their operations.”

Deniro's statements came from the city of Mutacle, the capital of the Benishangul region, which is witnessing growing opposition unrest against the government of Abi Ahmed, and even reached the point of armed clashes in April and May.

The Ethiopian army ranks 60th out of 140 countries in the ranking of world armies, with 162,000 fighters, and only 92 warplanes, including 24 fighters, 365 tanks, 480 field artillery, as well as 180 missile launchers, with an annual budget of $520 million, or about 15%. Of the total state budget, compared to 250 thousand fighters in the Tigray Liberation Front.

According to the statements of the governor of Tigray region, Debrasion Gebre Michael, the fighters of the front destroyed "7 divisions of the Ethiopian army, and killed 18,000 of them."

The leader of the front used these figures to raise the morale of the citizens of the region and the fighters of his party.

Two weeks before the Tigrayans took control of Mekele, the expert on the Horn of Africa, Alex Doal, said that "the Ethiopian army has two options: either to withdraw from Tigray or to negotiate with the front," which some considered a prophecy.

Here a question arises: What happened to the army of the central government of Ethiopia in Tigray?

The Sudanese military expert, retired Major General Amin Ismail, told Al Jazeera Net that "the Ethiopian army was lured into a guerrilla war, and the supply routes were lengthened, and then surrounded from all directions."

While Tesfaye Desta, a former fighter in the Tigray Liberation Front, believes that there are several factors that contributed to the formation of this scene;

"The first of these is the Tigrayans' practice of guerrilla warfare, and their use of the mountainous geography of the region, which allows them to hide and move, in addition to the fact that they were fighting in the midst of their social component, which gives them protection when the aerial bombardment intensifies."

Most importantly, according to Desta, "the Tigray Military Council is made up of generals with dual experience in guerrilla warfare and commanding regular armies, having spent many years in both experiences."

The former officer, Gabriel Weld Kabaru, said that the Ethiopian army after the Miklei scenes will not be the same as before it, adding, "If there is no quick settlement not only with the Tigrayans, but with all the regions, there is a real danger to the cohesion of the army, and thus to the existence of Ethiopia as a state."

Is the defense of the Renaissance Dam affected?

Since 2018, the military command of the Ethiopian army in the Benishangul Gemiz region, in the far north of Ethiopia, has become one of the important military centers, as it has installed an air defense system that includes advanced Russian missiles to protect the Renaissance Dam - the largest development project in the country - from any threat.

Did the military developments that happened have an impact on his role there?

Ould Kabro believes that the defense system for the Renaissance Dam will not be affected, as "the central army did not withdraw its equipment or soldiers from the area that protects the dam, which is geographically far from Tigray by about 650 km, and this makes it unlikely."

The godfather of the dam and the author of his idea, when renewing his research between (2004 and 2009), is "one of the heroes of Tigray and is considered the builder of Ethiopia's renaissance, the late former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. This creates sympathy between Tigrayans and the project if this region continues within the Ethiopian state."

This is in reference to the hadith of Debsion that "the survival of Tigray within the Ethiopian state is doubtful."

As for Desta, a former fighter in the Tigray Liberation Front, he said, "We are not interested in the dam, we must first decide whether we want to stay within this state? Is the central government keen that Ethiopia remains united? After verifying this, we can talk about joint projects."