• WHO Europe: "Cases up 10% after two months of decline"

  • Son, ready for a possible third dose, science will tell us if and when


01 July 2021A today 2,384,966 over 60s (13.3%) have not yet received even a dose of vaccine and 4,648,515 (26.0%) are waiting to complete the cycle with the second dose: they are therefore over 7 million over-60s partially or totally exposed to the risk of serious illness who do not have adequate coverage against the Delta variant. This is highlighted by the new monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation.   

86.7% of the over 60s received at least the first dose of vaccine, with some regional differences: if Puglia, Umbria and Lazio have exceeded 90%, Sicily stops at 76.2%. While there are 2,384,966 (13.3%), therefore, the over 60s who have not received even a dose of vaccine, with significant regional differences: from 23.8% in Sicily to 8.1% in Puglia.

Although the exact prevalence of the Delta variant in Italy is not currently known, according to Gimbe, its greater contagiousness and the documented limited efficacy of a single dose of vaccine require a re-evaluation of vaccination strategies to minimize its clinical and service impact. sanitary. There should now be two priority objectives in light of which to reshape the vaccination campaign: on the one hand, to reach as many people over 60 as possible who have not yet received even a dose of vaccine, preferring mRna vaccines, which allow a booster in a shorter time span than those with a viral vector; on the other hand, anticipate as much as possible the administration of the second dose in this age group. Finally, "compared to the supplies estimated in the Plan - explains the president Gimbe Nino Cartabellotta - about 20.9 million doses would remain to be delivered, 27.4% of those originally planned: even without considering the CureVac vaccine which did not successfully pass the tests in the absence of further deliveries this week, the second quarter will close with more than 13.6 million fewer doses ".

Infections in decline for 15 weeks but few tests

For 15 consecutive weeks there has been a decline in new weekly Covid cases. However, a progressive decrease in testing activity continues, which has dropped by more than 60% from the beginning of May to today, which "underestimates the number of new cases and documents the insufficient tracing of contacts". This is what the new independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation reveals.   

In particular, in the week 23-29 June 2021, compared to the previous one, there was a 26.9% decrease in new cases (5,306 compared to 7,262) and a stabilization of deaths (220 compared to 221). Hospitalizations with symptoms also decreased by 26.8% (1,676 compared to 2,289) and intensive care by 25.4% (270 compared to 362). "The reduction of hospitalized patients continues, now more slowly - says Renata Gili, Head of Research on Gimbe Health Services - which has brought the occupancy of beds by Covid patients to 3% both in the medical area and in intensive care: also this week all the Regions record values ​​of less than 10% and there are 5 Regions without Covid patients hospitalized in a critical area ".

In detail, from the peak of April 6, the number of beds occupied in the medical area fell from 29,337 to 1,676 (-94.3%) and those in intensive care from 3,743 to 270 (-92.8%). The number of people in home isolation, from the peak of 28 March, went from 540,855 to 50,878 (-90.6%). While deaths, down for 10 consecutive weeks, stabilized in the last week at an average of 31 per day compared to 32 in the previous week. "However, - specifies the president of the Nino Cartabellotta Foundation - compared to the week 5-11 May the number of people tested weekly has progressively reduced by 60.3%, passing from 662,549 to 263,213".