Is there a possible role for China in resolving the Renaissance Dam crisis? What are the Egyptian pressure cards on Beijing?

Cairo - 

The past few days have witnessed a series of statements and events that indicate the good relationship between Egypt and China, which prompted some to question whether this relationship can contribute positively to helping Egypt solve the crisis of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is now threatening its security and water rights in the River Nile. Nile.

Two days ago, the Egyptian media highlighted statements by the Chinese ambassador in Cairo, Liao Liqiang, in which he said, "The comprehensive strategic partnership between Egypt and China is witnessing rapid development in various fields, and is based on supporting common interests and strengthening political coordination."

Egyptian experts also considered that the Egyptian-Chinese relations are currently witnessing a "great development" and are going through their "golden age", 65 years after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

During a seminar held by the Dar Al Maaref Press Foundation, experts noted what they described as the "remarkable presence" of Chinese companies in Egyptian projects.

Before that, the spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, Ambassador Ahmed Hafez, revealed a phone call that took place last Friday between Minister Sameh Shoukry and his Chinese counterpart, "Wang Yi", which dealt with several common issues, and the conversation dealt at length and in depth with the file of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in all its aspects and dimensions.

Does Hafez's words, which were included in an official statement by the ministry, mean that Egypt hopes that China will play a role in resolving the Renaissance Dam crisis, which has become a heavy burden on Egypt with its authority and people?

Will China, which has huge investments in Ethiopia, respond to Egypt's demands?

And what pressure cards does Egypt have to push China to adopt its point of view, or at least mediate with Addis Ababa to lessen its intransigence and insistence on going to the project to the fullest extent without an agreement with Egypt and Sudan?

Chinese investment map

Dr. Nadia Helmy, a professor of political science at Beni Suef University, and an expert on Chinese and Asian affairs, stated that the investment map within the Renaissance Dam projects clearly indicates the size of the Chinese influence in the Ethiopian decision-making.

According to the viewpoint of the concerned Chinese environmental think tanks, which include the study of the Renaissance Dam crisis within its research limits for the decision maker in China;

Beijing's experience in managing dams enables it to help Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan reach an agreement that satisfies all, according to a published study by Helmy.

Helmy believed that China's strong relations with Cairo and Addis Ababa, and by virtue of its financing of large development projects in the two countries, qualify it to be a mediator that may help rebuild trust between Egypt and Ethiopia, and reach a formula that balances Ethiopian ambitions and Egypt's historical rights.

The ability to pressure without will

While the expert on Chinese affairs, Adel Sabri, confirms to Al Jazeera Net, that China already has the ability to put pressure on Ethiopia;

But it does not have the will to do so, because it works in a pragmatic manner, and is trying to stay away from the points of contention between the parties to the crisis;

Therefore, it evaded any Egyptian attempt to include it as a serious mediator in the negotiations over the dam.

He adds that China's interests in Ethiopia are much greater than in Egypt and Sudan. Chinese companies have projects to cultivate two million acres in Ethiopia, and are involved in industries that will benefit from the electricity produced from the Renaissance Dam, and will also use that electricity in railways, which they will launch between Djibouti and Addis Ababa in coordination with the State of UAE.

Likewise, according to Sabri, Beijing views Ethiopia as the heart of Africa, and it succeeded through Addis Ababa to enter Djibouti, and built a military base there, and its starting point was to Kenya, Zambia and Zimbabwe, where it contributes to the construction projects of railways and road tracks in those countries.

Egypt fears a shortage of its share of the Nile water due to the Ethiopian dam (Al Jazeera)

Egypt does not have pressure cards

Unfortunately, China - continues Sabri - stands on the Ethiopian side, and Egypt and Sudan do not have any cards to pressure;

On the contrary, China provided several loans to Egypt, including the equivalent of 3.5 billion dollars (granted in the Chinese currency, the yuan) to support the reserves of the Central Bank, in addition to loans to finance the iconic tower in the Administrative Capital and the high-speed monorail.

While China lost the position it held in Sudan in the nineties after it entered with Al-Bashir in what was known as the oil-for-projects agreement;

But that ended after Khartoum lost control of the oil to South Sudan, he said.

In short, China reduced its dependence on Egypt, after it launched industrial centers such as cars in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, and even the pressure card represented by the fact that Egypt was the first country to recognize China in the mid-fifties, lost its luster with decision-makers of the new generation, even if they appreciate it, they do not live It is, according to Sabri.

Reasons for the absence of Beijing

Professor of International Relations at Cairo University, Dr. Mohamed Hussein, explained Beijing's absence from a crisis of this depth in Africa by its desire not to jeopardize its strong relations with Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, if one side senses its bias towards the other.

Hussein confirmed to Al-Jazeera Net that China's direct interest in the completion of the dam project in terms of the investments around it, makes it a non-neutral party - at least in the eyes of Egypt and Sudan - even if it announced or announced otherwise.

alternate plans

But Beijing may plan to complete the dam without obstacles or conflicts, and at the same time maintains its relations with Egypt and Sudan, through a group of grants and loans to finance plans in the two countries to improve and maximize the management of water resources, to meet the expected large shortage of their shares of water, he said.

About half of Ethiopia's foreign debt is owed to China, with Beijing's government debt amounting to 59% of what it has borrowed so far, the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University in the United States has monitored.

In 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed succeeded in reaching an agreement with China to structure the loan repayment period from 10 to 30 years.

Beijing and Addis Ababa also signed a memorandum of understanding on the establishment of a protection mechanism for the security of key projects within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative in Ethiopia, and experts expect the agreement to play an important role in enhancing the security and normal operation of Chinese investments in Ethiopia.

Egypt and Sudan on the one hand, and Ethiopia on the other, are still exchanging accusations of being responsible for the failure of negotiations over the Renaissance Dam, which the latter is building on the Blue Nile, the largest tributary of the Nile.

Egypt and Sudan are seeking Security Council intervention in the case;

However, Ethiopia sent its refusal to the Security Council, claiming that the whole matter is outside its competence.