Yes, not running is a final decision.

These were the words of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) in a press interview published by the BBC on November 20, 2009, in response to a question from the channel’s anchor about his announcement of his intention not to run for a second presidential term in the Palestinian elections, which was supposed to Established in the same year, the question was followed by the following: No candidacy, but perhaps no elections as well?

Abbas replied, "You must come, even if you are a little late. You may be a year or less than a year late, I don't know. Now I say: I will not run for elections."

No elections were held in which Abbas could nominate himself or abstain, but he nevertheless remained head of an authority “without democratic legitimacy.” The elections were postponed from 2009 until the beginning of this year, when a presidential decree was issued to hold legislative and then presidential elections on May 22 and July 31. July of the current year. No sooner had the astonishment of the Palestinians ended at the news of the elections, until Abbas shocked them again with his decision on April 29 to postpone them, leaving the Palestinian street divided without a clear answer to the question after Abbas, and with a raging debate about how he might go in light of the escalation of The anger against him inside the Palestinian territories, an anger with which Palestinians hopes for a peaceful end to the Abu Mazen era, which has continued since the death of Yasser Arafat, the most prominent Palestinian leader, in 2004, fades.

In the end, a two-week war broke out between the Palestinian resistance factions in the Gaza Strip and the Israeli occupation, and the prestige of the Palestinian Authority diminished more and more, until the straw that broke the camel’s back came a few days ago when the Palestinian Authority’s security forces attacked the activist Nizar Banat, killing him, leaving her hands stained with stains. It, too, is accused of the blood of the Palestinians, and becomes accused, not of political inaction, complicity with the occupation, and circumvention of the democracy that has been crippled for years, but also of spilling the blood of the Palestinians, like the Israeli occupation, which allows it to exist in the first place. What is the future of the Palestinian Authority in light of the current situation? What is the fate of the Palestinian election fund, which has been inactive for nearly a decade and a half?

The first Palestinian legislative-presidential elections were held in 1996, after the signing of the first and second Oslo Accords in 1993 and 1995, and the return of the leaders of the Palestine Liberation Organization to the occupied territories in 1994, led by Yasser Arafat, Abu Ammar, who then became the first president of the Palestinian National Authority, while he became Abu Mazen, Secretary-General of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (in 1996), which made him - in practice - the second most important man in power after Arafat. (2)

Not only did Abu Mazen walk in the shadows of his leader and friend - Abu Ammar -, but he opened for himself a door of international political and diplomatic relations that were prepared for him by the wide-ranging secret talks that the Palestine Liberation Organization conducted in the 1990s, with the occupying power, with American and European mediation, in preparation for the conclusion of the Oslo Accords, which Abbas was considered its "engineer" and one of its most important propagandists; Being one of the first leaders of the Liberation Organization to recognize Israel. From an early age, Abbas openly declared his rejection of all types of armed resistance, in addition to his continuous call for peaceful negotiations with the occupation in order to reach a solution to the Palestinian issue. It includes Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine, a solution to the refugee problem with a halt to settlements and a return to the 1967 borders.

These relations paved the way for Abbas to win a secure victory by 62% in the Palestinian presidential elections in 2004, which took place two months after Arafat's death. Neither Abbas nor the Palestinians was given much time to go to Egypt, just two months after his victory, to hold talks with the then Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, in order to discuss ways of security coordination between them, which would have almost continued if the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections came with an -unusual victory. Expected - Hamas has the majority of seats in parliament, so Hamas became the head of the Palestinian Legislative Council, which hindered, albeit temporarily, Abbas' plans for security cooperation with the occupation.

The 2006 elections were only held under pressure from the US administration headed by George Bush Jr., to legitimize the existing Palestinian Authority, which had completely counterproductive results for both the Americans and the authority, as it was not expected that Hamas would win at the time, just as the latter was not expected to respond to Fatah's attempts at a coup On its authority in the Gaza Strip in 2007, it expelled all the movement's officials there and took control of the Strip militarily. These developments caused Hamas and the entire Gaza Strip to be under siege for years, and paved the way for the beginning of the Palestinian-Palestinian division, which has only widened since that moment, especially with the economic blockade imposed by the Palestinian Authority itself on the Strip, demanding that Hamas hand it over and submit to the supreme Palestinian leadership.

Hamas' insistence on the legitimacy of its victory in the legislative elections was supported by the testimony of the European Union (3) that the Palestinian electoral process was conducted in a "fair image" by the "independent and professional Palestinian Central Elections Committee." But this did not exempt it from the sanctions of the European Union itself, or the sanctions of the United States, or the Palestinian-Israeli security and economic blockade on the borders of the Gaza Strip, a blockade that coincided with the dissolution of the national unity government led by Ismail Haniyeh, whom Abbas had previously assigned to form the government, and then a new government led by Hello Fayyad.

Talking about holding new legislative or presidential elections has decreased since that year, and has instead turned towards attempts to pressure Hamas to hand over the Strip or negotiate a joint administration for the Palestinian Authority with Fatah, which would have happened several times had it not been for the ingraining of differences between the two strongest and most important Palestinian factions on the issue. The arena, which over the years has created dilemmas that require solving before talking about holding new elections. On top of these dilemmas is the continuous fading of the star of the Palestine Liberation Organization and its actual transformation into an authority project instead of a liberation movement, due to Abbas’s continued delinquency towards security coordination and cooperation with the occupation and refusal to cooperate with the Palestinian factions internally, and the subsequent decline in the popularity of Abbas, Fatah, and the following divisions Within the movement that exacerbated the Palestinian division. (4)

The absence of democracy and security coordination with the occupation was not the only distinguishing feature of Abbas's presidency. In addition, he expelled and marginalized Fatah leaders from his critics or opponents, especially those with popular influence or potential competitors. The first signs of disagreements within the movement emerged with the convening of its sixth general conference in 2009, when Abbas's differences with Muhammad Dahlan, a former prominent leader of Fatah, the former head of the Palestinian Preventive Security Service, and who has close and controversial links with the UAE, emerged. (5)

In the end, Abbas Dahlan was expelled from the Central Committee of Fatah in June 2011, against the background of accusations made by the latter against him of corruption, and although these accusations were subsequently supported by the reports of the Palestinian Aman Organization (the Coalition for Integrity and Accountability), Abbas did not retract his decision He also accused Dahlan of corruption and embezzlement of public funds, and made his accusations an opportunity to strip Dahlan's diplomatic immunity and bring him to justice, which caused the latter to refrain from returning to the occupied territories for fear of imprisonment. (6)

Despite the declared war of Abbas against Dahlan and the "Fatah" leaders supporting him in the West Bank, and the expulsion of many of them from the institutions of the Palestinian Authority, Dahlan still retains the loyalty of his men from the former Preventive Security, in addition to the belief that he obtains the support of the Palestinian refugee camps in the occupied territories and Gaza, Where civil society organizations receive their financial support without interruption, specifically in Gaza, where Hamas allows Dahlan's wife to enter and travel from time to time to carry out some civic activities on his behalf.

The list of Fatah outcasts from Abbas is not limited to Dahlan alone, but extends to include some of the most important leaders of the Palestinian Liberation Movement, and possible rivals to Abbas in the recent postponed elections, led by Nasser al-Kidwa, nephew of the late Yasser Arafat, who was expelled by Abu Mazen from Fatah in March Al-Madi after declaring his intention to run in the elections on a separate list, which prompted him to unite in the “Freedom List” with the well-known fighter Marwan Barghouti, the Fatah prisoner in the occupation prisons, who is widely believed to be the most prominent person capable of removing Abbas from office if the presidential elections were held and he was nominated her from prison. (7) (8)

Marwan Barghouti enjoys the appreciation of the various resistance factions. He is the one who formulated with his fellow resistance elements in the occupation prisons what we know as the “Prisoners’ Document” or the “National Accord Document” in 2006, which was signed by all Palestinian factions - with the exception of Islamic Jihad - and it represents a unified political program It stipulates the right of resistance, self-determination, the establishment of a national homeland for the Palestinians on the 1967 lands, and the unification of the Palestinian ranks (both fighters and politicians) in the face of the occupation.

In addition to the document, Barghouti's imprisonment for long periods in the occupation prisons as a result of his resistance actions, and his being considered "the architect and mastermind of the first intifada" made him one of the few - if not the only - figures on whom the majority of Palestinians unanimously agree and trust him to manage the political process after Abbas.

Marwan Barghouti

Barghouti’s popularity is supported by an opinion poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) last December (2020), in which Barghouti won against Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh. Barghouti or not) will receive 25% of the Palestinian votes (participants in the poll sample), if legislative elections are held, compared to only 19% for Abbas. As for possible presidential elections between Barghouti and Haniyeh; The first will get 61% and the second 37% of the votes according to the same sample. In addition, paradoxically, 66% of the Palestinians want Abbas to resign.

The matter was no different after Abbas announced the holding of elections last January. In March, in the context of an opinion poll by the same center about who the Palestinians want as their president; 22% of the participants chose Barghouti as the next president of Palestine, compared to 14% for Haniyeh, and only 9% for Abbas, while Dahlan received the votes of 7% of the Palestinians. These and other findings put the Palestinian Authority in "the worst conditions at the moment," as Dr. Adnan Abu Amer (professor of political science at the Ummah University in Gaza tells Meydan). "Abu Amer" believes that the masses are not the only ones resentful of the Palestinian Authority, but that those who are resentful of it are among its leaders and men. Leading circles in Fatah felt that they were “failed by their leaders and humiliated because of it, especially with the recent aggression on Gaza and the accompanying success of Hamas in mobilizing Palestinian factions around it without the Fatah leadership moving to defend Al-Aqsa or the Palestinians in Sheikh Jarrah.”

Abu Amer adds, “The events raised the popularity of Hamas in a way that Hamas itself did not expect.” As a result, the “Palestinian Authority” became isolated from the Palestinian street and “is not relevant to what is happening, except through statements only.” This is what the Palestinian political science professor considers the main reason for canceling the elections, and not Jerusalem, as several proposals were presented to Abbas to solve the election problem in Jerusalem, but he deafened his ears from these suggestions because the upcoming security field reports to him confirmed that “Fatah” is facing elections that “will return from it with no longing.” ".

"Adnan Abu Amer" believes that talking about candidates for the presidential elections is premature now, but this does not negate that the "after Abbas" questions are being asked even within the ranks of the Fatah movement itself. On the one hand, Dahlan faces judicial accusations that make it difficult for him to return to Palestine, unless he makes peace with either Hamas or Fatah. As for Barghouti, his presence in prison prevents him from fulfilling his role as a potential president, and although he may do so with the help of his assistants and deputies, it will be just a "moral role." . As for Al-Barghouti's release, it will only take place through a major prisoner exchange deal carried out by Hamas and which puts his name in it. In any case, holding Palestinian elections remains unlikely now.

The main issue for the authority, then, is the issue of popularity and not the technical procedures of the elections. Fatah has witnessed an increasing decline in its popularity since Hamas won the 2006 elections, and the effects of this appeared in the Birzeit University student elections in 2015 when the Hamas bloc defeated Fatah in one of the most prestigious Palestinian universities and the closest to the headquarters of the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah.

These university elections were such an important indicator that it drew the attention of the late Saeb Erekat, the former chief Palestinian negotiator, who declared, “We lost a great loss,” not only because it is a loss against Hamas, but because student elections are one of the last forms of democratic expression absent from Palestinian society since 2006. (9)

The Islamic bloc (Hamas) wins the majority in the student council elections at Birzeit University in the West Bank.


pic.twitter.com/yS28a0b2WN# What_don't_want_arab_to_see

— Ahmed bin Rashid bin Saeed (@LoveLiberty) May 11, 2017

This coincides with calls gaining momentum within Fatah to reject all forms of normalization with the occupation and to return to armed struggle, which Abu Mazen stands against with all his might, bearing Fatah the burden of popular indignation. About the reason behind normalization with the occupation and not moving to resist it, especially about the feasibility of security coordination that surrounds the Palestinian cause more than ever, and even participates in the shedding of Palestinian blood sometimes.

(10)

There is no single title or name for the post-Abu Mazen era, but the inevitable absence of the Oslo generation with the passage of time and its advancing age opens the doors of the Palestinian arena wide in front of young generations that are only aware of what their hands and their resisting weapons can achieve, and what they can change the viewpoint of The world around the Palestinian cause, which is being reshaped by the struggles of the armed resistance, the popular resistance, the activities of the Arabs of the 48th, and the valor of the Gazans and the people of the West Bank, while the star of the authority, which clings to political survival, betting on humiliating legal papers that it no longer possesses, has faded almost completely: And the oppression of the people whose land the movement was born to liberate one day.

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Sources

  • Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas: a pragmatic politician or a regional puppet?

  • Mapping Palestinian Politics – About Elections

  • Legislative Elections (2006)

  • Is The Palestinian Authority Needed after the National Project Loss?

  • Dahlan: a Most Controversial Palestinian Politician

  • Corruption in Palestine: A Renewed System

  • Gen Z Reclaims the Palestinian Cause

  • Marwan Barghouti - From the prisoner to the presidency?

  • Palestine's Democratic Deficit - Why Fatah Won't Hold Elections

  • Fatah leaders refuse to return to security coordination with Israel