Washington (AFP)

Torn off after bitter discussions between Washington, Ottawa and Mexico City, the USMCA free trade treaty, which entered into force in the midst of a pandemic, is far from having put an end to trade frictions between the three countries.

But it could, under the leadership of the Biden administration, change the situation in terms of labor law.

The United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement will celebrate its first year of existence on Thursday.

On July 1, 2020, it replaced the Alena, the North American free trade agreement that had been in effect since 1994, at the request of Donald Trump.

The three partners have always trumpeted that this new treaty would be beneficial for their economies and their workers.

But over the past year, it is above all the range of litigation that has widened, between on the one hand, the United States and Canada, and on the other hand, the United States and Mexico.

Admittedly, the USMCA has eliminated "the cloud of uncertainties" and therefore improved the business climate, a sine qua non for promoting trade and investment, underlines Jeffrey Schott, expert at the think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics.

But paradoxically, it has favored the outbreak of many conflicts.

"The Aléna was the vision of a single North American market, which would gradually become more and more integrated, a bit on the model of the European Union" with the absence of customs duties between the countries, recalls Edward. Alden, expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"USMCA has made the rules for three distinct North American economies to cooperate, where they can, and made the rules to fight where they can't," he said.

He therefore expects to see an increase in the number of appeals over the next few years.

Because, "within the framework of these rules, (the countries) will act according to their own interests, in a rather aggressive way", estimates it.

From the historic dispute over Canadian dairy products and softwood lumber, to Canadian solar panels and the taxation of American digital companies, the list of areas of disagreement between Washington and Ottawa is growing.

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, who negotiated USMCA labor law provisions, has already said she will defend US interests, starting with the country's milk producers.

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Its services recently established a special settlement panel, provided for in the trade agreement, to examine the issue of milk quotas imposed by Ottawa.

Something to irritate Canadians.

- Sovereignty -

For François Dumontier, spokesperson for the Producteurs de lait du Québec, the USMCA does not provide "any advantage".

Worse, according to him, certain provisions of the treaty are "an attack on Canadian sovereignty", which restrict Canadian exports while allowing more imports from the United States.

For his part, David Salmonsen, an official of the main American agricultural union, the American Farm Bureau Federation, points to the long list of disputes but he wants to be optimistic.

"We will have a better view (of the state of the trade relationship) once all the economies have recovered from the pandemic," he said.

"We have supported the USMCA agreement, and we believe it will help develop agricultural trade between the three nations," he said.

Faced with the American offensive in the dairy sector, the Canadian government has targeted the solar panel sector.

He recently requested the formation of a group of experts to denounce the application of US tariffs of 18% in this industry.

Despite these skirmishes, Valeria Moy, economist and director of the Mexican think tank IMCO (Instituto Mexicano para la Competitividad), believes that "globally" for a year, there has been no "radical change from Aléna" .

However, she expects the agreement to influence labor laws in Mexico in the future.

Washington has already twice invoked the USMCA to ask Mexico City to investigate suspected violations of trade union rights in the automotive sector, including at a General Motors plant.

"Is this going to have a beneficial effect for Mexican workers? It seems to me so," said Ms. Moy.

"It will force Mexican companies to make changes."

The economist is worried, however, that the United States may use the issue of labor law "as a pretext to apply protectionist measures".

© 2021 AFP