Currently, the prevailing estimates indicate that Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) have no interest at the moment in a new military escalation that might develop into a large-scale war, following the recent confrontation that ended on May 21.

However, the experience of the past years in the relationship between Israel and Gaza shows that small events can turn into a large military conflict.

In recent days, Palestinian activists launched incendiary balloons towards Israeli towns and areas near the Gaza Strip, igniting a series of fires, in response to the continued provocations of settlers and occupation forces in occupied Jerusalem, as Hamas asserts that it is keen to achieve the equation of deterrence and impose new rules of engagement.

On the other hand, the Israeli occupation army planes bombed Palestinian resistance sites in Gaza for the first time since the ceasefire last month, but no casualties were reported.

This came under the leadership of a new Israeli government led by right-wing Naftali Bennett, who seeks - under pressure from criticism from the right-wing Likud party headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, who left power - to prove that his government is no less right-wing than its predecessor.

Processing incendiary balloons at a site in the eastern Gaza Strip (Getty Images)

political fires

"Five fires broke out (...) in agricultural areas in the Gaza envelope as a result of incendiary balloons. The deterrence built in Operation Fences Guard has died," Likud leader Yisrael Katz said in a Twitter post last Friday, referring to the recent war on Gaza.

But the expert on Israeli affairs, Muhammad Majadleh, believes that the previous government did not respond to the incendiary balloons by bombing, "and therefore this government is more extreme, as it is bombing in Gaza in a more fierce way."

And security affairs analyst in the newspaper "Maariv" Avi Ischarov also believes that the new Israeli government is trying "to impose a new equation according to which the bombing will take place, in response to the incendiary balloons that are launched, and to treat it as missiles."

The previous government used to order air strikes on Gaza, usually in response to the resistance’s rockets, while the incendiary balloons faced it with penalties on the Gaza Strip, including restricting the entry of fuel and goods, closing fishing areas in the Gaza sea, and bombing at other times.

However, Iskharov asserts that neither Israel nor Hamas has an interest in escalation at the present time, and points out that despite what was known about Bennett's tough stances in dealing with Gaza, he declared that Israel would provide facilities if the calm on the part of the Strip continued.

The security analyst said that launching a military operation or war on Gaza would affect the chances of the government's survival. "If we assume that Bennett decided to launch a military operation on Gaza, will the United Arab List headed by Mansour Abbas continue to support the government? I don't know, but I doubt it." .

The United Arab List is one of the components of the new alliance in Israel, as it supports the Bennett government through its four members in the Knesset.

Bennett (centre) seeks to prove that he is more right-wing than his predecessor, Netanyahu (European)

Calculated steps

On the other hand, Amos Harel, a military affairs analyst in Haaretz newspaper, points out that the Israeli threat of a new escalation put a question mark on the IDF's claims of victory in the latest confrontation.

And the Israeli journalist said in an article published on Friday that the steps of the two sides were calculated.

He continued, "The Hamas leadership, despite its threats to move for Jerusalem, did not order the firing of missiles at the city, and the Palestinians contented themselves with sending incendiary balloons to the Israeli fields across the border."

He added, "Israel chose the response, which was more fierce than usual but calculated, an air strike on Hamas military compounds in Gaza without causing casualties, hoping that the message would reach."