The New York Times said that the next six weeks before a new government takes power in Iran may present a unique opportunity for the administration of US President Joe Biden to return to the agreement on the nuclear file with Tehran, which the Iranian leadership has long postponed.
The newspaper stated - in a report - that the announcement of the victory of the former head of the judiciary and "very conservative" candidate, Ibrahim Raisi, in the Iranian presidential elections raised a diplomatic opportunity that was difficult to predict, which is that the rise of a hard-line government in Iran may actually give the Biden administration a "brief opportunity." To restore the nuclear deal signed in 2015.
Senior aides to President Biden, who have been negotiating with Iranian officials through intermediaries and behind closed doors in Vienna - the newspaper adds - believe that the right moment may have come, noting that the weeks that separate us from a major inauguration as president are a unique opportunity to reach a final agreement with the Iranians on a "painful" decision “I've always put him off.
Strict penalties
Officials in both Washington and Tehran confirm that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 82, actually wants to restore the nuclear agreement with the West, which former US President Donald Trump withdrew from more than 3 years ago, in order to lift the strict sanctions that kept Iranian oil out of the global market. .
They also believe that Khamenei - who was managing not only the election file but also the nuclear negotiations - did not want to give up his best hope for ridding his country of sanctions, before the assumption of Ibrahim Raisi, one of his confidants and the main candidate to become the next Supreme Leader of the Iranian nation, according to many.
So the indicators within the Vienna negotiations - the newspaper adds - indicate that the final decision to move forward with the deal with the Americans may come in the next few weeks, before a major inauguration and while a longer-lived and more moderate Iranian government remains in power.
According to the New York Times, this means that Iran's moderates will be prepared to take the blame for "capitulation to the West" and bear the brunt of popular anger if sanctions relief does not save the country's battered economy.
But if the deal coincides with the arrival of the new conservative government to power, it will be credited with any economic recovery, and this will reinforce the argument that it required a hard-line nationalist government to stand up to Washington and return the country to the right track.
strange turn
The New York Times believes that if Biden's bet succeeds, and the hard-line government in Tehran is his way to fulfill his electoral promise to restore the nuclear agreement, which was largely successful until former US President Donald Trump canceled it, it will be another strange turning point in an agreement that has not pleased either side. The Iranians, not the Americans.
But sources within the Vienna negotiations confirm that there are two main obstacles that could impede Biden's efforts to restore the deal with the Iranians, according to the newspaper.
On the one hand, the Iranians are demanding a written commitment to prevent any future US government from canceling the agreement, as former President Donald Trump did, a "demand that seems reasonable... but no real democracy can make it," according to a senior US official.
On the other hand, the Biden administration, which is fully aware of the shortcomings of the 2015 agreement, demands that Iran also agree in writing to an immediate return to the negotiating table once the old agreement is restored and to begin formulating the terms of a larger agreement that would be “stronger and longer-term,” as described by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. .