Since the preselection of candidates for the presidential election in Iran, it was foreseeable that dealing with the Islamic Republic would become even more difficult in the future.
Because the hardliners now control all important institutions, both the unelected and the elected.
President Rohani and his Foreign Minister Zarif only had limited room for maneuver.
But the West could speak to them seriously.
Under Raisi, whose hands have a lot of blood on his hands, things should change. In addition, the EU and the United States have put him on their sanctions list for human rights violations, so that his radius is limited. The international community and the old Rouhani government now have six weeks to successfully complete the nuclear negotiations in Vienna with the reinstatement of the 2015 nuclear agreement. Raisi would accept such an agreement. It would have the advantage for him that he could blame Rouhani for “deficiencies”, but he would reap the dividends in the form of reduced sanctions. Risks remained.
Under Raisi, for example, it would be more difficult to verify the measures to be agreed, and since America's withdrawal from the nuclear deal under President Trump, Iran has developed the program to such an extent that it can no longer be dismantled.
Should no agreement be reached by the end of July, the International Atomic Energy Agency would no longer have access to Iran's nuclear facilities, and the hardliners would, even under the weight of the sanctions, complete the program with all available means.
Threats to the Middle East
It is easy to imagine that this would set in motion a new escalation of their nuclear program. They would feel the countries in which Tehran maintains militias, but also Iran's neighbors in the Persian Gulf. Some will therefore work more closely with Israel, which is also at risk. With Raisi as president, Iran will be even less prepared to even talk about its missile program and its destructive role in the region.
It is therefore to be expected that Iran with a President Raisi to blackmail the world, as in the past, will attack oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and oil facilities of its Arab neighbors. In doing so, he will certainly not drive the United States out of the region; on the contrary, he will ensure that Washington extends its protective shield even further over its allies. The only chance to prevent this escalation is an agreement in Vienna. But the time window is closing.
Such an agreement is still possible. The negotiations in Vienna are progressing slowly, but the differences seem to be bridged with political will and diplomatic creativity. It is therefore also in the hands of the Viennese negotiators to somewhat defuse the worst-case scenario that will emerge in Iran after the election on Friday. Otherwise, stormy times could threaten Iran.