The hopes that many pinned on the G7 summit that was held in the United Kingdom to resolve the European-British dispute over the implementation of the contents of the exit agreement from the European Union have been dashed, despite US President Joe Biden's landing with all his weight on this file.

No sooner had every Western leader returned to his country after the summit than the implicit and explicit threats to wage a trade war between the European bloc and the United Kingdom were raised, if London insisted not to implement the protocol on Ireland.

Under the Brexit deal, Northern Ireland effectively remained in the EU's customs union and single market, and this avoided the need for goods inspections on the island of Ireland.

Ireland's situation turned into a powder keg that could explode at any moment in the face of the government of Boris Johnson, who found himself between the hammer of domestic anger in Northern Ireland and the anvil of American warnings, which rejects any prejudice to the Good Friday Agreement (the peace agreement between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland), and threatens to freeze Negotiations of the trade agreement with London in the event of prejudice to this agreement sponsored by Washington for many years.

Irish knot

In January, the Europeans and the British each agreed on a six-month "amnesty" period to allow companies to set up alternative supply chains, to avoid maritime checkpoints, before arriving or leaving the Irish island, and over the past months the UK has not inspected goods and materials received from Britain to Ireland, which the European Union considered a breach of the agreement.

What increased the anger of the Europeans was Boris Johnson's insistence on continuing not to inspect materials and goods on the maritime border with Ireland, and the reason is that this inspection would mean that Northern Ireland no longer belongs to the United Kingdom, while Boris Johnson's whole narrative is based on restoring his country's sovereignty from the European Union.

In an opinion piece for the Telegraph, Vice President of the European Commission Maros Siskovic threatened that "the European Union will not be ashamed to respond quickly and firmly" if the United Kingdom does not reverse its decision.

And before him, the German chancellor and the French president said directly - in a closed meeting - that the continuation of the British "disobedience" to the protocol on Ireland would lead to a trade war.

On the other hand, the British Prime Minister compliments on the one hand when he calls on the Europeans to be flexible and pragmatic, and on the other hand assures that he will do anything to protect the sovereignty of his country.

What Irish officials fear most is that if the dispute continues, the goods coming from their country will be treated as if they came from a "third party", that is, full trade duties would be imposed on them without any concessions, which prompted the Irish to deliver a message to the US administration that this option It would be a disaster on the Irish island.

From the G7 summit to resolve the European-British dispute over the implementation of the contents of the exit agreement from the European Union (Reuters)

imminent war

The Brexit agreement stipulates that in the event that one of the two parties violates the agreement, the other party has the right to take the necessary legal measures, the first of which is the establishment of a committee of experts.

The European Union has the right to suspend parts of the Brexit deal, and to announce the imposition of tariffs on British goods.

Past experience shows that disputes between Europeans and the British are quickly spiraling out of control, as happened in the vaccine war, and the movement of British warships to the island of Jersey off the French coast due to the dispute over fishing.

Boris Johnson will be under great pressure to respond to the imposition of customs duties on his country's goods;

First, by his electorate bloc, which gave him an overwhelming majority, believing that he would restore the country's sovereignty, and secondly, by his parliamentary bloc - especially those who are hostile to the European Union - where the temptation to trade confrontation with the European Union would be worth fighting to restore their country's economic prestige.

losses for both sides

The World Trade Organization deals seriously with the threats of a trade war between the European Union and the United Kingdom, which prompted it to demand calm and resolve the dispute away from escalation, because the last thing the world needs in the current circumstances is a war between the two parties.

The figures confirm that no one will win out of this war if it breaks out, as trade exchanges between the two parties during the past months of this year are at their worst in decades, with British exports to the European Union declining by 41%, while Britain's imports from the Union declined by 29 percent. %.

FSM figures show that a quarter of small businesses have been forced to suspend exports to the European Union due to the complexities of the post-Brexit phase.

According to the data of the National Statistics Agency in Britain, Britain recorded a record decline in the volume of its trade with the European Union during the first months of Brexit, and last January alone Britain’s exports to the European Union fell by 6 billion dollars, while imports fell by about 7 billion dollars. This is the steepest decline since 1997,” according to the National Statistics Agency.

During the first three months of this year, Britain's exports of food and beverages to Europe fell by about 2 billion dollars, which means that the numbers may become larger in the event of any trade war between the two parties.