• The first round of the regional was marked by a record abstention, between 66 and 68% according to the polls.

  • This low turnout seems to have favored the outgoing presidents, and therefore the traditional parties of the PS and Les Républicains.

  • Conversely, the National Rally is lower than expected, and the majority party is unable to maintain itself in several regions.

A poll undermined by a collapse in turnout.

In the first round of regional elections this Sunday, abstention would reach between 66.1% and 68.6%, a record for all ballots combined in France except referendum.

For the rest, the Les Républicains party would come first across the country (between 27.2 and 29.3%), ahead of the National Rally (around 19%), the lists led by the PS (between 16.5%). and 17.6%), EELV (around 12% of the vote) and La République en Marche (10-11%).

Bonus for leavers, RN underperformance, slap for the majority…

20 Minutes looks

back on the lessons of this election.

All the results of the departmental and regional in your municipality

Record abstention: the opposition overwhelms the executive

All politicians regretted the participation of a historic weakness. "The level of abstention is particularly worrying," Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin said in a tweet. But the opposition questioned the responsibility of the executive. “Tonight the government won because it was looking for massive abstention,” blasted RN number 2 Jordan Bardella on TF1. "There is in the organization of the poll an enormous responsibility of the government, never there was such a mess," abounded the boss of LR Christian Jacob, denouncing the problem of professions of faith not received by certain voters. The rebellious Jean-Luc Mélenchon asked him for a commission of inquiry into the conditions under which the vote took place. Critics swept aside by Gabriel Attal,the government spokesperson, who spoke of "the health situation" and recalled that the maintenance of the ballot had been validated by "all political parties".

The RN's poor performance

Leading in six regions in 2015, Marine Le Pen's party would only be in pole position in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, where Thierry Mariani would be very slightly ahead of outgoing LR president, supported by the majority, Renaud Muselier. The breakthrough predicted by the polls therefore did not take place for the RN, which recorded 9 points less than in 2015. “The RN does not reach the scores hoped for in Hauts-de-France, in New Aquitaine , in Auvergne, in Occitanie, in the Grand-Est… ”, lists Luc Rouban, researcher at Cevipof and research director at CNRS. "He seems to be affected by a differential abstention: his electorate has moved less than that of the left and right blocs, older and more educated, which are back in the saddle," adds the political scientist. The RN's hope could lie in Paca,which will be played in triangular, after the announced maintenance of the ecologist Jean-Laurent Felizia in the second round.

On the right and in the PS, the bonus for leavers

The abstention thus seems to have favored the outgoing presidents, who sometimes quite far outpace their rivals and could be re-elected in the second round.

Whether they are socialists like Carole Delga in Occitanie and Alain Rousset in New Aquitaine or LR like Jean Rottner in the Grand-Est.

On the right, Hauts-de-France boss Xavier Bertrand is clearly in the lead and should retain his majority, and his presidential candidacy, next Sunday.

Laurent Wauquiez (LR) in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Valérie Pécresse (Libres!) In Île-de-France, his possible competitors for 2022 on the right, are also in the lead.

On the left, we hope to keep the five metropolitan regions: Brittany, Center-Val-de-Loire, Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Occitanie.

A slap in the face for LREM and the government

The majority had let it be known that they did not expect much from the ballot, except to be able to play kingmakers.

But in Hauts-de-France, despite the presence of five ministers including Eric Dupond-Moretti and Gérald Darmanin, in Occitanie and Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, the LREM lists are under 10% and will not even be able to maintain themselves in view of the second round.

“We find the municipal scenario.

When they do not associate with LR, they pay for their lack of territorial presence, ”summarizes Luc Rouban.

MoDem ministers Marc Fesneau in Center-Val-de-Loire (16%) and Geneviève Darrieussecq (14%) in Aquitaine are doing a little better, but their third place should not allow them to win.

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  • Regional elections

  • Elections

  • The Republicans (France)

  • National gathering

  • Abstention

  • LREM

  • Region