Three years after the peaceful revolution that brought him to power, Nikol Pachinian's popularity is vacillating, to the point that the Armenian Prime Minister is playing his political future in these legislative elections of June 20.

His name remains associated with the defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh against Azerbaijan in the fall of 2020. The signing of a ceasefire ended six weeks of fighting which left nearly 6,000 dead.

A defeat which politically weakened a Prime Minister until then very popular.

An unforgivable humiliation?

Part of the population does not forgive him for having accepted, within the framework of the agreement sponsored by Russia, the loss of territories under Armenian control for some thirty years, including Choucha, a strategic city 15 kilometers from the separatist capital Stepanakert.

He himself described this initiative as "incredibly painful for [him] and for [his] people".

This decision, perceived as a humiliation in Armenia and qualified by Baku as "capitulation", triggered the political crisis which forced Nikol Pachinian to call early legislative elections.

Not without hoping that they will allow him to renew his mandate.

After having long embodied the protest in Armenia, Nikol Pachinian promised after coming to power to rid the country of corruption and poverty. He was certainly able to carry out several reforms, but his momentum was shattered by the war and the health crisis linked to Covid-19.

Aged 46 and father of four children, Nikol Pachinian was not destined to take the reins of the former Soviet South Caucasus republic, locked in the zone of Russian influence and contiguous to the hereditary Turkish enemy.

Investigative journalist then editor-in-chief of the protest newspaper Aïkakan jamanak (Le Temps Arménien), he stands out thanks to his outspokenness which targets the governments of presidents Robert Kotcharian and Serge Sarkissian.

An explosive critical tone that propels him to the forefront of opponents of the oligarchic system.

Inspired by the struggles of the South African Nelson Mandela and the Polish Lech Walesa, the former student of the faculty of Yerevan, from whom he was expelled because of his activism, took the step of politics in 2007 by standing for the legislative elections .

In vain.

To exist on the political scene, he becomes one of the leaders of the protest against the presidential victory of Serge Sarkissian in 2008. One of the demonstrations turns into a riot and a pitched battle against the police. Result: 10 dead and hundreds injured. Wanted by the police, Nikol Pachinian then went into hiding for several months before surrendering to the police in 2009. Sentenced to seven years in prison in January 2010, he was released the following year with an amnesty.

After his time in prison, the opponent creates his political party, the Civil Contract.

He threw himself into the battle of the legislative elections of 2017 and was elected deputy.

But it was in 2018 that his political career made a leap that will propel him to the top of the state.

On April 13, a peaceful movement brought together tens of thousands of demonstrators against former President Serge Sarkissian, in power from 2008 to 2018.

The "people's candidate" brought to power

Before the start of the movement, of which he quickly became the main figure, Nikol Pachinian, surrounded by his supporters, walked the 200 kilometers separating Gioumri, the country's second city, and Yerevan, during which he seduced by its simplicity and its speech. 

Known as the "people's candidate", Nikol Pachinian calls for continuing anti-government protests until a total "capitulation" of the ruling party.

On April 23, pushed by the popular movement, Prime Minister Serge Sarkissian resigned from his post whose powers had been strengthened thanks to a constitutional reform voted in 2015. On May 8, 2018, the former journalist was elected Prime Minister by Parliament , a week after a first failure.

Considered as a hero by the Armenian people, acclaimed by the public opinion tired of the methods of the power of these predecessors, the leader of the "Velvet Revolution" trades his military t-shirt, his cap and his megaphone for the suit and tie and becomes the darling of Western media.

On December 9, 2018, Armenians are called to vote in early legislative elections - the reforming Prime Minister intends to strengthen his power through the ballot box.

A risky but winning bet for Nikol Pachinian, who sees the electoral alliance "My step", which includes his party, triumph with more than 70% of the votes.

Serge Sarkissian's Republican Party, which dominated the parliament elected in 2017, won only 4.7% of the vote.

The way seemed cleared to allow Nikol Pachinian to carry out these reforms, until the explosion of the conflict with Azerbaijan.

His speeches predicting victory despite the reality on the battlefield discredit him.

On February 25, the general staff signed a letter demanding his resignation.

Since then, tensions with the neighbor remain high.

About 20,000 supporters took part in Yerevan's last campaign rally in Yerevan on Thursday evening.

A show of force likely to reassure his camp?

Not so sure: the only available poll credits his party with only 25%, neck and neck with that of his rival Robert Kotcharian.

The latter refused to debate publicly with Nikol Pachinian and offered him a "duel" in exchange.

It is not certain whether one or the other will be able to win the 54% of parliamentary seats necessary to form a government.

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