The National Gathering is approaching the first round of regional elections Sunday leading in six metropolitan regions out of 13, with the ambition to break, less than a year before the presidential election, the republican front which had blocked its way in 2015. Favored by a proportional ballot, the RN is given in the lead, in the polls, in the first round in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (Paca), Center-Val-de-Loire, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Occitanie, New Aquitaine and Brittany.

He would be on the heels of the outgoing presidents in Hauts-de-France, Grand-Est and Normandy.

“It is not so much the progression in voice that seems striking, but the increase in the chances of victory for the RN” compared to the regional ones in 2015, explains Bernard Sananès, president of the Elabe Institute.

"The chances of victory are greater, because there is a fragmentation of the electoral offer which is greater, with the irruption of LREM", the presidential party which was not yet born in 2015, underlines Bernard Sananès.

And with an abstention that promises to be historic (up to 64% according to Elabe), "the electorate of the RN seems very determined to go and vote," he adds.

The question of the "republican front"

Under these conditions, as soon as the first estimates fall on Sunday evening at 8 pm, the question of the “republican front” will arise for the left, the right, but also for the presidential majority. All in a context where the idea is crumbling, as evidenced by an Ifop poll for

Le Journal du dimanche

published on Thursday: one in two French people (51%) believes that a victory for the RN in one or more regions during the elections of June 20 and 27 would not represent a danger for democracy. "A republican front of the staffs is not necessarily followed in the ballot box", warns Bernard Sananès.

Although local, these elections have a national dimension and should kick off the campaign for 2022. On the right, Valérie Pécresse and Xavier Bertrand, who have pledged to retire from political life if they are beaten, as well as Laurent Wauquiez await the ballot a springboard to potentially launch into the race for the Elysee.

Of the three, the president of Hauts-de-France has already announced that he would be a candidate in 2022, unless defeated on June 27.

Environmentalists in search of a region

On the left, the Greens intend to take advantage of the momentum that brought them to the head of several large cities last year during the municipal elections. They are betting on a success in Pays-de-la-Loire, where a poll gives the winner in the second round the environmentalist Matthieu Orphelin against the outgoing LR Christelle Morancais. But the left is divided, with the exception of Hauts-de-France where the ecologist Karima Delli has managed to unite it around his candidacy.

For the departmental elections, which take place simultaneously, the scenario is identical: the outgoing ones will have to face the push of the National Rally, which again does not hold any of them.

Five overseas communities - Mayotte, Réunion, Guadeloupe, Guyana and Martinique - are also called to the polls to renew the elected representatives of their department, regions or local authority.

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