Consumption, worst year since the war: lost two thousand euros each

• Bankitalia: household consumption still held back by Covid and the crisis

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June 18, 2021 

"With an overall decline in consumption of 11.7%, equal to over 126 billion euros, 2020 recorded the worst figure since the second postwar period, a figure which is affected by the 60.4% reduction in spending of foreign tourists, equal to a loss of about 27 billion, 23 of which concentrated mainly in the regions of the Center-North, with Lazio and Tuscany in the lead ".

 This is what emerges from the Confcommercio report on consumption 2019-2021 and in which it is emphasized that the collapse in demand led, on average, "a loss of over 2,000 euros each" compared to 2019, bringing consumption back to 1995 levels. ".

Per capita spending down by 2 thousand euros

 As far as per capita expenditure is concerned, the collapse in demand due to the pandemic led, on average, to a reduction of over 2,000 euros compared to 2019, bringing consumption back to 1995 levels. This is what emerges from a 2019-2021 Consumption Report of 'Confcommercio Research Office. For the South, the decline appears even more relevant with a lower consumption value than at the beginning of the historical series. The regional differences in expenditure per inhabitant are significant: they range from over 24 thousand euros in the Aosta Valley to just over 11,700 in Campania. The region's negative record lies, in part, in being the only southern territory not to have experienced significant losses of resident population between 1995 and 2020.

Foreign tourist spending is down by 60 percent

Expenditure incurred by foreign tourists, which in 2019 represented over 4% of consumption on the national territory, recorded a significant fall in 2020, with an overall reduction of about 27 billion (-60.4%). This is what emerges from a 2019-2021 Consumption Report of the Confcommercio Research Office. The phenomenon, although widespread, has hit the regions of the Center-North to a greater extent (approximately -23 billion), territories in which the incidence of this item on expenditure is historically higher. There is a profound suffering in the regions where tourism has less seasonal connotations and where the cities of art are a pole of attraction, especially in spring and autumn, such as Lazio, Tuscany, Campania, Sicily, Veneto and Lombardy. In percentage terms, the fall moresignificant was recorded in Lazio (-75.2%) which is contrasted by the almost holding of Valle d'Aosta (-6.9%), a region in which foreign tourism, however, plays a crucial role, observing a share of the region's domestic consumption of 14.5%. The marked increase recorded in Molise statistically represents a bias, that is an expected distortion determined by the very small numbers of foreign tourism in this region.that is an expected distortion caused by the very small numbers of foreign tourism in this region.that is an expected distortion caused by the very small numbers of foreign tourism in this region.

Growth forecasts in 2021 but with unknown tourism

Domestic consumption growth of 3.8% is forecast for 2021, with the caveat that the risks of an overestimation are now lower than the risks of an underestimation of the actual growth of expenditure in the area. This is what emerges from a 2019-2021 Consumption Report by the Confcommercio Research Office which explains how the forecasts for 2021 remain very cautious, especially due to the unknowns on the restart of international tourism; with the consequence that, in absolute value, per capita expenditure, on average, will not be able to recover even a third of what was lost during the pandemic. The recovery of the South will be more difficult, an area in which demand for consumption is estimated to grow by 3.2%. The usual problem of the South less resilient than the rest of the country, a phenomenon already seen in the past, is re-proposed.The recovery in the Center should be more intense, with Lazio the most dynamic region of all. Fall in 2020 and recovery in 2021 should overall imply that on the average of the two-year period between 4.4% (Abruzzo, the best region overall) and 11.4% (Veneto, the most affected region) of pro consumption disappear. regional capita.