• The first round of regional elections will take place on Sunday, June 20.

  • Ten months from the presidential election, the ballot could give national lessons, as each camp is preparing for 2022.

  • This is particularly the case in Paca, where the alliance of the outgoing LR Renaud Muselier with the marchers sparked a heated controversy on the right.

The French are called to the polls this Sunday for the first round of regional.

A decisive vote, which will have serious consequences at the national level, less than ten months before the 2022 presidential election. Scores of candidate ministers, divisions of the left in Ile-de-France, explosive situation in Provence-Alpes-Côte d 'Azur, record abstention envisaged… We selected six pieces of information to scrutinize on the evening of the first round.

  • Towards a record of abstention?

This is the first figure known and analyzed on election nights.

In previous regional elections, the abstention rate rose to 50.09% in the first round.

The specter of an even more massive disaffection with the ballot boxes hangs over this election, in a context of the coronavirus epidemic.

Because the virus prevented the candidates from leading a classic campaign because of health restrictions, and led to the postponement of the election at the end of June, in the middle of a football Euro, and a few days before the start of the school holidays.

Some fear that the 2010 abstention record (at 53.67%) will be broken.

  • After the cacophony, what score for the LR-LREM alliance in Paca?

The Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region will be particularly observed on Sunday evening.

Because the alliance announced by the outgoing LR Renaud Muselier and La République en Marche has caused a political crisis within the right-wing party.

What impact will this sealed deal with the marchers have on voters?

In the polls, the strategy of blocking the National Assembly seems to fail: its candidate, Thierry Mariani, would take the lead in the first round with 41% of the vote ahead of the outgoing president (34%).

The former minister of Sarkozy spent in the RN is even given the winner in the second round "in all cases", according to the same survey of the Ipsos-Sopra Steria institute.

  • In how many regions will the RN be in the lead?

Again, these are only opinion polls, but all agree on a breakthrough by the National Rally. The party of Marine Le Pen is given in head in Paca, but also in Burgundy-France-Comté, in Center-Val-de-Loire, in New-Aquitaine and in Occitanie. Even in Brittany, on lands not very favorable to the party, Gilles Pennelle would come in first (20%), in front of the outgoing president PS Loïg Chesnais-Girard and Thierry Burlot (LREM), both at 19%. "The waves of the Paca region are being felt so far as elsewhere, because many on the right have not accepted this LR-LREM agreement," said

the candidate RN

to

20 minutes

. As of Sunday evening, the surges of the RN could lead, as in 2015, to the constitution of “republican fronts” on the part of the other parties.

  • What score for LREM in Hauts-de-France?

In Hauts-de-France, things look very tense. Outgoing president Xavier Bertrand hopes for re-election to launch his candidacy for the 2022 presidential election. If this fails, he has already announced that he would retire from political life. Elbow to elbow with the RN candidate Sébastien Chenu, the fate of the former minister could depend ... on the score of the LREM list. Announced around 10%, will the candidacy of Secretary of State Laurent Pietraszewski exceed this fateful threshold to remain in the second round? In case of failure, the triangular could allow Xavier Bertrand to win against the RN and the union list of the left of Karima Delli. But in the event of a quadrangular, the fate of the outgoing president, and rival of Emmanuel Macron, could depend on whether or not the presidential list is maintained.

  • Who will be in the lead in Ile-de-France on the left?

The Paris region reveals the fractures of the left on a national scale.

The left, which lost the region in 2015 to Valérie Pécresse, is divided into three main candidates in Ile-de-France.

Audrey Pulvar (PS), Clémentine Autain (LFI) and Julien Bayou (EELV) are in a pocket handkerchief in the polls, around 10%.

The goal of each of the three?

Avoid the humiliation of elimination in the first round and arrive in front of the other two to take the leadership of the union of the left against the outgoing president in the second.

The result will be particularly scrutinized by the staffs of the three formations, at a time when each camp is preparing, again, for the presidential election.

  • What score for the ministers?

Emmanuel Macron has decided to send a good part of his government to take to the air of the countryside. No less than fifteen ministers or secretaries of state are candidates in a more or less symbolic way. The bulk of the quarteron was sent to northern France to counter the RN, and weaken potential presidential rival Xavier Bertrand. The Keeper of the Seals Eric Dupond-Moretti and the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin thus support their colleague Laurent Pietraszewski (Pensions), as do Alain Griset (PME) and Agnès Pannier-Runacher (Industry).

In Ile-de-France, Marlène Schiappa was sent to Paris to boost Laurent Saint-Martin's timid campaign.

Other members of the government have also arrived in the Paris region as reinforcements, such as government spokesman Gabriel Attal, in last position in the Hauts-de-Seine.

In addition, two ministers are at the top of the majority list: Modems Marc Fesneau in Center-Val-de-Loire and Geneviève Darrieussecq in New Aquitaine.

Politics

Regional: LREM ready for alliances to block the RN "in all regions", assures Aurore Bergé

Elections

Regional in Hauts-de-France: "Many answers are at the top of the State", estimates Xavier Bertrand

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