"We thought we were going through the worst a year ago, but the limits have been pushed further. Our currency has fallen again, my rent has taken 40% and each trip to the supermarket costs me a little more. It's a pit without background, ”says Mahsa *, mother of a family.
This Tehran resident lost her job a year ago as the first wave of Covid-19 hit Iran.
Mahsa worked at a travel agency which was forced to downsize.
In recent months, many Iranian companies have had to separate from their employees or go out of business because of the health crisis.
"Besides that, because of the sanctions, we no longer find certain drugs for epilepsy or Parkinson's patients. One by one, my friends are leaving the country," laments Mahsa.
For this 40-year-old who voted for the reformers in previous presidential polls in order to "gain individual freedoms", the main stake of the poll will be the economic crisis this time.
"We really live under pressure, we are tired and the Covid has finished killing us, I do not even know if I will vote," she finally let go.
A concern shared by Mohsen *, a 45-year-old musician. "As long as the economy does not improve, I no longer want to get involved in political life," says the father, who says he has been downgraded. "I was part of this middle class who could still travel around the country at a minimum, afford to go to restaurants or organize leisure activities for their children. Today, as far as I am concerned, it's over. I can't take any more steps. The hardest part is not being able to enroll my daughter in sports or music lessons, or even replace her broken skateboard for months. "
Mohsen is far from an isolated case.
"This serious crisis is plunging part of the middle class into poverty," said Thierry Coville, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris).
A company "waiting" for a nuclear deal
Iran has been in recession for three years, inflation soars to 41% and unemployment hovers around 11% - an official rate that experts say is underestimated.
According to Thierry Coville, the number of unemployed would rather be around 20% of the population.
The picture is even darker when it comes to popular layers. Those most affected by this crisis "can no longer even afford meat". For an Iranian worker, paid at the minimum wage of 60 euros, the price of a kilo of chicken represents 10% of his monthly income. "Some negotiate loans with their traders, others have removed meat from their plates or have drastically lowered rations", continues Thierry Coville.
"People have other fish to fry than to vote, they are disillusioned", analyzes Azadeh Kian, professor in political sociology at the University of Paris Diderot.
For the researcher, on the eve of the electoral deadline, the company is not "in the mobilization" but "in expectation": "The exit of the United States from the nuclear agreement [in 2018] plays on morale. The Iranians expect more of the outcome of the negotiations on this file than the outcome of the elections. "
Economic distress before freedom of morals
In 2013, Hassan Rouhani was elected president with strong support from the middle class to negotiate the nuclear deal with the United States. The text signed, the moderate leader was reelected four years later with flying colors, in the first round, thanks to a rebound in the economy and a brief easing of sanctions. His then victories "were not driven by economic distress but by hope," noted Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, professor of economics at Virginia Tech and associate researcher at the Cairo Economic Research Forum, in a publication. from the World Bank. In his analysis, the teacher recalls that the Iranian middle class constitutes "a powerful electoral group".
On the social level, the aspiration to open morals, which greatly mobilized the female electorate and the youth during the previous elections, this time takes a back seat.
"Hassan Rohani was very disappointing, he failed to prevent the imprisonment of human rights, women's rights and environmental protection activists. He also failed to keep his promise to create an a ministry of women's rights, ”notes Azadeh Kian.
However, this concern has not completely disappeared.
And this is perhaps what could make Mahsa return to the polls: "Out of fear, no doubt, I will vote at the last minute, if I feel that an ultraconservative can win. There, my voice could count. "
* The first name has been changed.
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