Allegedly standing at the same distance from all candidates

Khamenei to tighten control of Iran's elections as frustration grows

• All presidential candidates are generally radicalized.

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Iranians will elect a new president, the day after tomorrow, in a race dominated by hard-line candidates close to the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, as public anger mounts over the faltering economy and restrictions on freedoms, which is likely to push many reform advocates to stay at home and refrain from leaving. Share.

The most prominent candidate in the electoral race, which has been subject to intense scrutiny, is Ibrahim Raisi, a hard-line judge whom analysts and insiders see as the most intimidating face in the security establishment.

However, the authorities may be disappointed in a high turnout that enhances their legitimacy, as official opinion polls indicate that only about 40% of the 59 million voters will vote.

Government critics blame this on anger over an economy undermined by US sanctions, and voters' lack of options, after a hard-line election committee disqualified moderate and conservative heavyweight candidates.

The race to choose a president to succeed pragmatist Hassan Rouhani will be limited to five hardliners who embrace Khamenei's fiercely anti-Western approach, including Raisi, former chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, and two little-known moderates.

The limited choice reflects the absence of pragmatic politicians, weakened by Washington's decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions in a move that undermined rapprochement with the West.

The moderate candidate, Mohsen Mehr Alizadeh, said during an election debate broadcast on television: "They gathered the sun, the moon and the heavens to make one specific person president."

Although the main base of establishment supporters will vote, hundreds of opponents at home and abroad have called for a boycott, including opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, who has been held under house arrest since 2011.

Mousavi said in a statement published by the opposition Kalima website: "I will stand in the side of those who are tired of the humiliating elections prepared in advance, and those who will not surrender to secret decisions hidden behind the scenes."

Mousavi and another reformer, Mehdi Karroubi, ran in the 2009 elections, and became symbols of Iranian reformists who participated in mass protests, after hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won an election they saw as tainted by fraud.

executions

If the head of the judiciary, Raisi, wins the election the day after tomorrow, it could boost the chances of the middle-ranking Shiite clerics eventually succeeding Khamenei, and Khamenei served as president for two terms before becoming supreme leader.

Rights groups criticized Raisi, who lost the election to Rouhani in 2017, for his role in sentencing to the execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988, and Khamenei chose him in 2019 to head the judiciary.

But the Iranians do not rule out the unexpected. In the 2005 presidential election, for example, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was not a prominent figure at the time, defeated the powerful former president, Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was widely considered the closest candidate for the job.

"We should not underestimate the possibility that Jalili will surprise us," said Tehran-based analyst Saeed Laylaz.

Although Khamenei has not publicly shown favor with any candidate, analysts said he would prefer a pro-establishment candidate such as Raisi or Jalili.

The elections are unlikely to bring about a major change in Iran's foreign, or nuclear, policies, which Khamenei already defines, but the election of a hard-line president may strengthen Khamenei's grip on the Iranian interior.

Economy

The crumbling Iranian economy is also an important factor. To win the votes of voters preoccupied with livelihood issues, the candidates pledged to provide millions of job opportunities, solve the inflation problem, and give cash distributions to the poor, but they did not mention how to finance these pledges.

All candidates support talks between Iran and world powers to revive the 2015 nuclear deal and lift sanctions.

But the moderate candidate, Abdel Nasser Hemmati, said the militants are seeking to stoke tension with the West, while the companies they control are making huge profits by circumventing sanctions.

In a televised debate, Hemmati, who held the position of central bank governor until last May, added: “What will happen if the hardliners take power?

More sanctions with more global consensus.”

• A hard-line judge and former chief nuclear negotiator are among the candidates.

• The choice is limited to five hard-line and two moderate candidates.

• Hardliners' victory will consolidate Khamenei's control over the country.

• Anger about the economy and freedoms may keep turnout low.

• Opponents call for a boycott of the elections.

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