Paris (AFP)
The RN given in the lead in six regions out of 13, outgoing presidents forced to join forces to beat him: the regional and departmental meetings of June 20 and 27 will test the strength of the "republican front" which had held firm. six years ago.
Less than a year before the presidential election, Marine Le Pen's party, favored by a proportional vote, finds itself in a position to conquer one or more regions, which would be a great first.
The blow was not gone far in 2015, when the National Rally had obtained its highest record with 27.7% of the vote in the first round.
But the far-right party had failed to confirm the test in the second round, the "republican front" blocking its way thanks in particular to the sacrificial withdrawal of the left in Paca and in Hauts-de-France.
Will the dam still hold up six years later?
"It is gradually crumbling," notes political scientist Jean-Yves Camus.
Suddenly, at LREM we plead for a "republican rally", which would regroup around a head of the list the other "republican" forces, in order to avoid outright withdrawals which would leave the opposition only in the hands of the RN .
"The need is to fight against the RN, but the question is how to do it", believes an adviser to the Head of State, for whom the regional "can be a laboratory to see how the forces are structured" before the presidential.
One week before the first round, the bonus for graduates, which traditionally rewards those who have managed a crisis like that of the coronavirus, seems guaranteed only for rare presidents: Laurent Wauquiez (LR) in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Valérie Pécresse ( Libres !, ex-LR) in Ile-de-France, or even the centrist Hervé Morin in Normandy.
For the others, they will undoubtedly be forced to seek alliances: "There will be complicated configurations in the second round, with triangular or quadrangular which can favor the RN," observes political scientist Pascal Perrineau.
This could be the case for the outgoing LR Jean Rottner in the Grand Est or the PS François Bonneau in Center-Val de Loire, caught between the RN and the Minister Marc Fesneau, the best placed candidate of the presidential majority to win a region during an unfavorable ballot.
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In many regions, the question of merging the lists will arise.
And this even if "between LR and LREM it will be complicated", explains Mr. Perrineau, who recalls the psychodrama which shook the Republicans after the announcement by the Prime Minister Jean Castex of an agreement with the outgoing LR Renaud Muselier in Paca .
- A springboard for 2022?
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Although local, these elections take on an even more important national dimension than usual because of the proximity of the presidential election.
On the right, Valérie Pécresse and Xavier Bertrand, who have pledged to withdraw from political life if they are beaten, as well as Laurent Wauquiez await the ballot as a springboard to potentially launch into the race for the Elysée.
Of the three, the presidents of Hauts-de-France has already announced that he would be a candidate in 2022, unless defeated on June 27.
"These elections will be an indicator," said Perrineau.
"If LR is doing well, the party will be able to say that it is not in crisis, that it is not torn between LREM and the RN, and that voters trust it again", analyzes it. he.
On the left, the Greens intend to take advantage of the momentum that brought them to the head of several large cities last year during the municipal elections.
They are betting on a success in Pays de la Loire, where a poll gives the winner in the second round the ecologist Matthieu Orphelin against the outgoing LR Christelle Morancais.
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But the left is divided, with the exception of Hauts-de-France where the ecologist Karima Delli has managed to unite it around his candidacy.
In the departments, the scenario is identical: the outgoing ones will have to face the push of the National Rally, which there too does not hold any of them.
© 2021 AFP