The last state election before the federal election in autumn will take place in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday.

CDU Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff is fighting to keep the AfD out of power.

Reinhard Bingener

Political correspondent for Lower Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Bremen based in Hanover.

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    The election could also mean the next step towards Dutch conditions in Germany: more and more parliamentary groups are entering parliaments, the formerly large parties are becoming even smaller and forming a government is becoming more complicated.

    What alliances are possible?

    Kenya

    Kenya is not just an East African country and the name for the black-red-green coalition in Magdeburg. No, according to the Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt, Reiner Haseloff, the political system of the Federal Republic of Germany has also long been “Kenya”. Because larger political projects not only require the approval of the Bundestag, but also the Bundesrat, Germany has long been ruled de facto by the Union, the SPD and the Greens, according to Haseloff. Against this background, the CDU politician can well imagine continuing to govern together with the SPD and the Greens in Saxony-Anhalt, if the election results on next Sunday allow this.

    Such a three-party alliance was formed for the first time in Germany in 2016 because the AfD soared to 24.3 percent in Saxony-Anhalt at the time. Despite many conflicts and contrary to some prognoses, the Kenya coalition held out the full legislative period. Many of Haseloff's party friends have a deep dislike of the Greens. But the prime minister recently praised the Greens. In a new edition, however, the Greens would demand a second ministry.

    Germany


    The great weakness of the CDU is currently the great strength of the FDP. According to the polls, the Free Democrats therefore have a good chance of returning to the state parliament after ten years. Should the election result be enough for a black-red-yellow government, most CDU MPs would happily wave a Germany flag and urge Prime Minister Haseloff to swap the Greens at the cabinet table for the more acceptable FDP.

    The Free Democrats could then also do the job within the coalition for the Union of containing the immense spending pleasure of the SPD.

    In addition, the country would take a completely different course in agricultural policy with the FDP, also to the delight of the CDU.

    Many farmers, foresters and hunters are angry to this day that the Union has left this area to the Green Minister Claudia Dalbert.

    Jamaica

    In the federal government, Christian Lindner let the planned coalition of CDU, Greens and FDP burst in 2017.

    For many observers, however, “Jamaica” is still seen as a forward-looking coalition option in which future issues such as climate protection and digitization could be combined with financial solidity.

    It is not entirely out of the question that there will be a majority in favor of Saxony-Anhalt after the election.

    The question is, however, whether “Jamaica” would reflect the social mood there as well as in Schleswig-Holstein, where there is already a black-green-yellow government.

    In East Germany, social issues play a much more important role.

    And if the CDU had the opportunity, it would probably rather push the Greens out of the government than the SPD.

    Zimbabwe

    If the FDP moves into the state parliament and at the same time it is not enough for “Kenya”, “Germany” and “Jamaica”, Saxony-Anhalt could even form a four-party alliance of CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP. So black-red-green-yellow - the national colors of Zimbabwe. The political compromise artist Reiner Haseloff would probably dare to domesticate one more coalition partner at the cabinet table in the future. Experience has shown, however, that the particular interests of the three Kenya parties could only be satisfied with a lot of money. How can this be achieved with four coalition parties when the financial situation has deteriorated? Difficult. However: what is the alternative?