Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to bring "good news" to his people regarding successive discoveries of natural gas in the Black Sea. On Friday, he announced a new discovery estimated at an additional 135 billion cubic meters of natural gas off the coast of Zonguldak province on the Black Sea, stressing that Excavation activities in the vicinity of the "Amasra-1" site are continuing.
In this report, we present 6 questions that explain Turkey's current and upcoming steps.
What are the implications of these discoveries and their importance to Turkey?
With Turkey's successive discoveries of natural gas in the Black Sea, the hopes of the Turks are increasing that their country will reach the "big 10" refineries, and improve the economic reality by reducing dependence on abroad in the field of energy and meeting needs locally.
Experts stressed that the gas discoveries in the Black Sea will make Ankara more powerful at the economic level, and will give it more freedom in its foreign political movement.
With the discovery of these reserves, the Turkish position will become less vulnerable to Russian pressures stemming from its control over Turkey's main energy resources.
Yassin Aktay, advisor to the head of the ruling Justice and Development Party, pointed out that the event, whose importance exceeds these fields, is Turkey's ability to carry out such operations in the Black Sea with its own capabilities only.
"Yeni Şafak" newspaper said that the discovery of natural gas will result in important economic variables in various fields, and it is likely that inflation rates will witness a significant decline as a result of the decrease in energy costs used in the industrial sector, and this will be reflected in the form of a clear drop in prices, indicating that interest rates will decrease significantly. Gradual in view of the annual revenue, which will enter the country thanks to the discovered gas, estimated at billions of dollars.
Will the discoveries contribute to achieving the goal of reducing energy bills and achieving energy security?
Muhammad Klub, an economic researcher at Yildirim Beyazit University in Ankara, told Al Jazeera Net, "The discoveries will gradually change Turkey's position in the global energy market from a purely importer to being self-sufficient in the natural gas market."
He pointed out that the tangible economic effects of the discovery will actually start with the start of production, and it will be positively reflected on the Turkish trade balance.
A Bloomberg report expects imports to decline through TurkStream (the natural gas pipeline between Russia and Turkey) based on the volume of discoveries.
"We will not stop or rest until we are an energy exporter," said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
He stressed that energy is of great importance in achieving national independence, in addition to being a major component of development.
"Yeni Şafak" newspaper pointed out that the discovery of natural gas will end the era of gas import dependency;
Which in turn will result in lower gas bills.
What are the other steps to achieve this goal?
Other steps are represented in reducing the energy bill and achieving energy security, with Ankara seeking to review gas supply contracts and reduce its cost in light of its successive discoveries in the Black Sea, and experts believe that it has other papers that make it able to conclude new contracts on better terms for the supply of Russian gas, the most important of which is the launch of operations The supply of gas from Azerbaijan since last year, through the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline, as well as developments in the global LNG market.
Will Turkey witness other discoveries later?
Turkish Minister of Energy and Resources, Fatih Donmez, said in press statements that it is expected that new wells and fields will be discovered as soon as possible in the area of the discovered gas field, pointing out that his country continues to work in the areas of the discoveries that have taken place, and that they will continue "exploration and survey work with local capabilities, A gas pipeline will also be established.
Energy experts attributed the possibility of discovering new gas fields to two factors, the first is to prove the Turkish national capabilities and its ability to search, prospect and discover huge fields, and the second is the environmental factor, as studies indicate the fertility of the region and its richness in natural resources.
The second factor reinforces the statement of the Turkish Minister of Energy that what the tests and analyzes showed regarding the quality of the discovered gas will positively affect the cost of extracting it.
The head of the Turkish Association of Natural Gas Distributors, Yasar Arslan, said that the new discovery, amounting to 135 billion square meters, would not be the last.
He pointed out that the current reserves will rise with the continuation of exploration and drilling activities for seismic research vessels in the region, and the coming months will witness new discoveries of resources in the Black Sea.
What is the size of the proven reserves and the volumes of production and consumption?
The total gas reserves discovered in the area amounted to 540 billion cubic meters, with the new discovery announced by President Erdogan.
Last year, Turkey discovered about 405 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the "Tuna-1" well near "Amasra-1", which is the largest gas discovery in the Black Sea so far.
Turkey expects that the first gas flow from the Sakarya field will be in 2023, and according to Bloomberg, the Sakarya field is expected to provide up to 30% of the gas required by Turkey's economy.
Ankara currently imports about 50 billion cubic meters of gas it consumes annually, and officials expect domestic production to boost the country's gas demand by 60%, to reach 80 billion cubic meters annually by 2030.
The discoveries are also expected to allow Turkey to import cheaper gas, reducing the average annual energy bill by about $44 billion.
In this context, a report by Rystad Energy, an independent Norwegian energy research firm, stated that Turkey's gas consumption has declined in recent years;
Because of its increased investment in renewable energy.
Pointing out that the entry of the "Amasra-1" field into service in gas production will allow Turkey to advance at a steady pace towards self-sufficiency in natural gas.
What is the relationship of gas discoveries in the Black Sea to Turkey's ability to sign less expensive gas and oil deals?
The Rystad Energy report stated that the timing of the new discoveries could not be better.
Because 25% of Turkey's long-term gas contracts expire at the end of this year, which allows Ankara to obtain better gas prices from suppliers.
In this context, the long-term contracts concluded by Turkey with the Russian "Gazprom", which cover 8 billion cubic meters of gas imports, will expire at the end of this year 2021.
On the same date, the contract of 6.6 billion cubic meters of gas with Azerbaijan, and the long-term LNG agreement with Nigeria, covering 1.3 billion cubic meters, expires.
In addition, the term of the gas contract with Algeria of 4.4 billion cubic meters ends in 2024, as well as the contract for the “Blue Stream” pipeline from Russia with 16 billion cubic meters, and the long-term gas contract with Iran, which covers 9.6 billion meters. cubic.