Confindustria: GDP on the right track, ready to rebound by 4%, Italy on a narrow path of recovery
2021-06-01T02:41:52.784Z
"Italy begins the long narrow path of recovery", with "first positive signs in services" and "solid industry", indicates the Confindustria Study Center. The economists of via dell'Astronomia see a "GDP on the right track. May was confirmed for Italy as the month of the gradual easing of anti-Covid restrictions thanks also to the significant pace of vaccinations. small, increase in GDP, which will be followed by a strong rebound in the third and fourth of more than + 4%, which will be consolidated thanks to the impact that will come from the investments financed by the European Ng-Eu plan ". With the monthly analysis of May "flash conjuncture" the economists of via dell'Astronomia see an "industry ahead",recalling that "industrial production remained stable in March (-0.1%), worse than expected, closing the first quarter at + 0.9%. The statistical drag in the second quarter is nil and in April it is estimated to be stable ( despite the PMI climbed to 60.7), but a positive change is expected in the quarter: production expectations are sharply increasing and stocks are rapidly decumulating; this indicates a demand beyond forecasts and a necessary re-accumulation of stocks, which will support production ". Meanwhile, "something is moving in services. After the PMI had dropped to 47.3 in April, the expected recovery in demand should begin to materialize in May, shifting consumption back to services, hitherto conditioned by anti-contagion measures." increased demand for services,expected to become more pronounced in the summer quarter, is explained by the resumption of travel and consumption outside the home, as well as by the reopening in sectors linked to the tourism and culture chain (museums, art galleries) ". And" there is the creation of work ": the Confindustria Study Center underlines this, recalling that" the data on mandatory communications show a slow recovery of the labor market in Italy. Between January and April, about 130 thousand job positions were created, net of terminations, against a very negative figure (-230 thousand) in the same months of 2020 (+ 260 thousand in 2019) ". And there are" positive data for investments. The investment prospects are clearly improving. The leasing sector in the first 4 months of 2021 recorded growth compared to 2020 (Assilea data);cars and capital goods have the best performances, the real estate sector has started to grow again. Good indications also from the rise in internal orders from producers of investment goods (from -10.8 in March, to -0.5 in May). Loans to businesses slow down in March, but remain on the rise (+ 5.7% annually) ". The general picture sees" still low rates "," healthy exports "," robust world trade ", a" revival of services "in the eurozone, and" high confidence in the US ". Among the factors on which there is much attention today," non-energy commodities rise. The price of Brent remained around $ 68 per barrel in May, at pre-Covid levels, thanks to the market rebalancing that has now been achieved, with crude oil inventories falling to the values at the beginning of 2020.In April, however, the other commodities showed new strong increases (wheat + 3.2%, copper + 3.7%, iron + 6.9%). For copper, the historical peak of 2011 is just 5.5% ". There is job creation, slow employment recovery", highlights the Confindustria Study Center in the monthly 'flash' analysis on economic situation and forecasts, recalling that "the data on mandatory communications show a slow recovery of the labor market in Italy. Between January and April, about 130 thousand job positions were created, net of terminations, against a very negative figure (-230 thousand) in the same months of 2020 (+ 260 thousand in 2019) ".the historic peak of 2011 is just 5.5%. "There is job creation, slow employment recovery" There is job creation ", highlights the Confindustria Study Center in the monthly 'flash' analysis of the economic situation and forecasts, recalling that "the data on mandatory communications show a slow recovery of the labor market in Italy. Between January and April, about 130 thousand job positions were created, net of terminations, against a very negative figure (-230 thousand) in the same months of 2020 (+ 260 thousand in 2019) ".the historic peak of 2011 is just 5.5%. "There is job creation, slow employment recovery" There is job creation ", highlights the Confindustria Study Center in the monthly 'flash' analysis of the economic situation and forecasts, recalling that "the data on mandatory communications show a slow recovery of the labor market in Italy. Between January and April, about 130 thousand job positions were created, net of terminations, against a very negative figure (-230 thousand) in the same months of 2020 (+ 260 thousand in 2019) ".data on mandatory communications show a slow recovery of the labor market in Italy. Between January and April, about 130 thousand job positions were created, net of terminations, against a very negative figure (-230 thousand) in the same months of 2020 (+ 260 thousand in 2019) ".data on mandatory communications show a slow recovery of the labor market in Italy. Between January and April, about 130 thousand job positions were created, net of terminations, against a very negative figure (-230 thousand) in the same months of 2020 (+ 260 thousand in 2019) ".
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May 29, 2021 "Italy begins the long narrow path of ascent", with "first positive signs in services" and "solid industry", indicates the Confindustria Study Center.
The economists of via dell'Astronomia see a "GDP on the right track. May was confirmed for Italy as the month of the gradual easing of anti-Covid restrictions thanks also to the significant pace of vaccinations. This makes it possible in the second quarter a first, small, increase in GDP, which will be followed by a strong rebound in the third and fourth of more than + 4%, which will be consolidated thanks to the impact that will come from the investments financed by the European Ng-Eu plan ".
With the monthly analysis of May "flash conjuncture" the economists of via dell'Astronomia see an "industry ahead", recalling that "industrial production remained stable in March (-0.1%), worse than expected, closing the first quarter at + 0.9%. The statistical drag in the second quarter is nil and in April it is estimated to be stable (despite the PMI rising to 60.7), but a positive change is expected in the quarter: production expectations are a sharp increase and rapidly decumulating stocks; this indicates a demand beyond forecasts and a necessary accumulation of stocks, which will support production ".
Meanwhile, "something is moving in services. After the PMI had dropped to 47.3 in April, the expected recovery in demand should begin to materialize in May, shifting consumption back to services, hitherto conditioned by anti-contagion measures." the increase in demand for services, which is expected to increase in the summer quarter, is explained by the recovery in travel and consumption outside the home, as well as by the reopening in sectors linked to the tourism and culture chain (museums, art galleries) ".
And "there is job creation": the Confindustria Study Center underlines this, recalling that "the data on mandatory communications show a slow recovery of the labor market in Italy. Between January and April about 130 thousand job positions were created, at net of terminations, against a very negative figure (-230 thousand) in the same months of 2020 (+ 260 thousand in 2019) ". And there are "positive data for investments. The investment prospects are clearly improving. The leasing sector in the first 4 months of 2021 records growth compared to 2020 (Assilea data); cars and capital goods have the best performance, the the real estate sector has started to grow again. Good indications are also given by the rise in internal orders from investment goods producers (from -10.8 in March to5 in May). Loans to businesses slowed down in March, but remained on the rise (+ 5.7% annually) ".
The general picture sees "still low rates", "healthy exports", "robust world trade", a "revival of services" in the eurozone, and "high confidence in the US".
Among the factors on which there is a lot of attention today, "non-energy commodities are increasing. The price of Brent remained around 68 dollars a barrel in May, at pre-Covid levels, thanks to the rebalancing of the market now reached, with crude oil inventories fell to the values of early 2020. In April, however, the other commodities showed new strong increases (wheat + 3.2%, copper + 3.7%, iron + 6.9%). the historical peak of 2011 is just 5.5% ".
There is job creation, slow employment recovery
"There is job creation", highlights the Confindustria Study Center in the monthly 'flash' analysis on the economic situation and forecasts, recalling that "the data on mandatory communications show a slow recovery of the labor market in Italy. Between January and April About 130 thousand job positions were created, net of terminations, against a very negative figure (-230 thousand) in the same months of 2020 (+ 260 thousand in 2019) ".
