British writer and researcher in international relations Christopher Phillips believes that Western leaders face a real dilemma about what to do in relation to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, despite their condemnation of his brutality during the decade-long Syrian civil war, their calls for his departure, the imposition of economic sanctions on his regime and the military support of his opponents The "Syrian dictator" is still in power.

Phillips believes - in an article for the British Middle East Eye news site - that the Assad regime’s survival in power in Syria revealed that the repeated Western condemnations of him were hollow, as Western leaders were not prepared throughout the old years of the conflict to follow the saying Indeed, they are taking sufficient measures to topple his regime.

Rather, this "Assad problem" worsened after he was able, with the support of his Russian and Iranian allies, to regain two-thirds of the Syrian soil, and to rule the retaken areas with an iron fist, while his forces continued to attack the remaining territories under the control of the opposition factions.

In addition, the Syrian economy and state are collapsing under the weight of international sanctions and the financial crisis in neighboring Lebanon, and due to the effects of the war and the spread of corruption in the various state apparatus, indicating that the country is rapidly moving forward to become a "failed state at Europe's doorstep."

System change

Syrian politicians, thinkers, and opposition figures in exile urged the administration of US President Joe Biden to adopt "regime change" policies to get rid of Assad. US lawmakers say that bringing down Assad is still an "important long-term goal."

However, to the extent that these "hawks" may want to overthrow Assad and his regime, the repercussions of this option remain not guaranteed, and the various methods they propose to activate it are unrealistic.

One of the options proposed to turn the page on Assad is direct military intervention, but it is an unlikely option, especially after Barack Obama canceled a proposed strike against his regime in September 2013, and most observers in Washington do not want to revive this idea.

The second option preferred by some is to continue to impose more economic sanctions, such as those imposed under the "Caesar Act", in the hope that the "impoverishment" of the Assad regime will lead to an internal coup that may be supported by frustrated Russia, or an uprising by loyalists despite that these and others Among those close to the regime, they had 10 years of war to topple Assad, and they did not, perhaps out of fear, conviction, or to preserve their gains.

There is also a third and final option that others offer - the writer adds - but it seems closer to an illusion than to reality, which is to negotiate the departure of Assad with his patron, Russia, in the hope of persuading Moscow to abandon him in exchange for guarantees that preserve its interests in Syria.

Russian refused

This idea was proposed by former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton earlier in the war and rejected by Moscow, and it is not likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will agree to it now, especially as he benefits from Assad’s staying in power, and whatever the promise of American hawks, nothing guarantees the Russian side that it will be repeated. His relationship is the same with Assad with any potential successor to him.

Christopher Phillips - who wrote a book on Syria titled "The Battle for Syria ... International Competition in the New Middle East" - believes that these Western-backed options for regime change remain unlikely, leaving two other options, no third, facing the opponents of Assad and his regime, They are also undoubtedly not welcome.

The first is to keep the situation as it is while keeping Assad isolated and punished, while work is being done to mitigate the repercussions of his rule as much as possible by supporting the enclaves still under the control of the opposition and humanitarian activities wherever possible for the benefit of many Syrian refugees.

As for the other option - which is also less acceptable - it is to seek some kind of compromise with Assad, but that would be a "reward" for his violence supported by Russia and Iran and encourage them all and all the despots across the world, and this option would provoke ridicule from Western governments that She raises the slogan of respect for humanitarian and liberal principles, and says she is striving to promote this principle.

The writer concludes that, against such a scene, the current situation remains the most likely approach, which is the continuation of the series of collapse of the "Assad state", but excluding its complete and complete fall, at least in the foreseeable future.