The working-age population between the ages of 16 and 59 is 880 million, a decrease of more than 40 million compared with 2010.
Although the total amount has dropped, the demographic dividend is still there (seeing changes through the "Seven People")
According to data from the seventh national census, there are 880 million people of working age in China between the ages of 16 and 59.
In terms of total, compared with the sixth national census in 2010, China's working-age population has decreased by more than 40 million; in terms of proportion, the proportion of China's working-age population in the total population has also declined.
How to look at the decline in the number and proportion of the working-age population?
Will the labor supply be sufficient in the future?
In terms of provinces, which places have more prominent demographic dividends?
The working-age population is still the number one in the world
—— 880 million working-age population, more than the total working-age population of the same caliber in all developed countries in the world
The working age population refers to the population within the working age range of the total population of the society.
According to the results of the seventh national census, there are 880 million people of working age in China between the ages of 16 and 59. What is the concept of this scale?
From a horizontal perspective, the United States, Indonesia, and Brazil, which currently rank third to fifth in the global population, have a combined population of approximately 800 million people, and the total working-age population of the same caliber in all developed countries in the world is less than 800 million.
In terms of scale, China's total working-age population is above the above two, ranking first in the world.
Vertically, China's working-age population peaked at over 900 million people, and it has declined since 2012.
Yuan Xin, a professor at the Institute of Population and Development of the School of Economics of Nankai University and vice president of the Chinese Society of Demography, analyzed to our reporter that the basic national conditions of China's large population base and large population have not changed.
At present, although the working-age population is declining, it is a gradual decline from a high level. The total scale is still large, which also means that domestic labor resources are still abundant.
"It should be noted that with the general trend of population aging, the reduction of the working-age population is an objective law of development."
According to the data from the seventh national census, there are 260 million people aged 60 and over in China, accounting for 18.70% of the total population, an increase of 5.44 percentage points from 2010.
Among them, there were 190 million people aged 65 and over, accounting for 13.50%, an increase of 4.63 percentage points.
A major challenge brought about by the aging population is the consequent reduction in the supply of labor.
According to You Jun, Vice Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, it is estimated that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's elderly population will exceed 300 million, from a mild to moderate aging stage.
The decrease in the number of working-age population in China is increasing, and it is expected that it will decrease by 35 million during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
In terms of provinces, data shows that among the 31 provinces, the 3 provinces with the highest proportion of people aged 15-59 are Guangdong, Beijing, and Zhejiang. They are all regions with a large influx of migrants in the past ten years, of which Guangdong accounted for up to 68.80%; the three lowest provinces are Henan, Guangxi and Hebei; compared with the "six-population", the largest decline in the proportion is Tianjin, Beijing and Hebei.
"In terms of trends, the total and proportion of China's working-age population will continue to decline in the future, but the advantage of labor supply will continue. It is expected that by 2050, the domestic working-age population is expected to remain relatively large and continue to be in the world. At the forefront." Yuan Xin said.
The population quality has improved significantly
—— Among the working-age population, 43.79% of the population with an education level of high school and above accounted for 43.79%, an increase of 12.8 percentage points from the "six-population"
Regarding the decline in the working-age population, society is generally concerned about a topic: Is China's demographic dividend still there?
Talking about the demographic dividend, let's first look at its concept.
The demographic dividend is the economic result brought about by the change in the age structure of the population in the process of demographic transition.
Specifically, it means that a country’s working-age population accounts for a large proportion of the total population, and the burden of social support is relatively light, which creates favorable demographic conditions for economic development.
According to industry insiders, to judge whether a country has a demographic dividend, two indicators are focused: one is the working-age population; the other is the working-age population as the denominator, and other age groups such as the child population and the elderly population as the numerator. Comparing the two calculations The resulting population dependency ratio.
From the first indicator, the total and proportion of the working-age population in China are currently at a relatively high level.
From the second indicator, generally speaking, the period when the total dependency ratio of the population is less than 50% is called the demographic dividend period.
Chen Gong, director of the Population Research Institute of Peking University, said that according to the seventh national census data, the dependency ratio of China's population in 2020 (the ratio of the total population of 0-14 years old and 65 years of age and above to the population of 15-64 years old) This is 45.9%, which is an increase compared to 2010, but the country is still in a demographic dividend period with a dependency ratio of less than 50%.
"In the long run, China still has great potential to develop a secondary demographic dividend." Yuan Xin said that in the future, due to the improvement of labor quality and the optimization of employment structure, labor productivity is expected to increase significantly, and the economic structure can be optimized and upgraded, thereby promoting Achieve higher-quality economic growth.
This potential can be seen from the seventh national census data.
According to Zeng Yuping, chief statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, the quality of the domestic working-age population has improved significantly.
The average number of years of education for the population aged 15 and above is 9.91 years, which is 0.83 years higher than in 2010.
Among them, the average number of years of education of the 16-59 working age population reached 10.75 years, an increase of 1.08 years from 9.67 in 2010.
At the same time, among the working-age population, 385 million people have an education level of high school and above, accounting for 43.79%, an increase of 12.8 percentage points from 2010.
The proportion of the population with a tertiary education level and above reached 23.61%, which was 11.27 percentage points higher than that in 2010.
Another data worthy of attention is that among China's population aged 60 and above, the population of young people aged 60 to 69 accounted for 55.83%.
"Most of these young people have the advantages of knowledge, experience, and skills, and their physical condition is not bad, and they have greater potential for exerting residual heat and effects." said Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics.
The demographic dividend shifts to the talent dividend
——Optimizing the industrial structure, raising the level of education, perfecting the social security system, and promptly promoting delayed retirement will form new advantages in human resources
Faced with an aging population and a declining working-age population, what should we do?
Yuan Xin believes that this will bring certain challenges to economic and social development.
"But by adopting active response measures, such as adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure, improving the education level of the population, improving the social security system, delaying retirement, and improving the health of the population, we will be able to form new advantages in dealing with challenges."
The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 long-term goal outline put forward to put the improvement of national quality in a prominent position, build a high-quality education system and an all-round full-cycle health system, optimize the population structure, expand the population quality dividend, and enhance manpower The level of capital and the overall development capabilities of people.
Vice Minister of Education Song Demin stated that at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, we will strive to increase the average number of years of education of the working-age population to 11.3 years, which means that by 2025, the average education level of the domestic working-age population will reach the second-year education level of high school.
In addition, it will continue to improve the human resource development level of the existing workers, and strive to build an education system that serves lifelong learning for all.
"At the time of the 1982 census, less than 1% of China's total population had a tertiary education or above, and it has now risen to more than 15%, indicating that China's goal of improving the quality of its citizens is gradually being realized." Yuan Xin said, from an employment perspective In the short term, considering that the current working-age population is still large, the phenomenon that supply exceeds demand still exists in the relationship between labor supply and demand, and employment pressure is not small.
In the long run, although the working-age population is gradually decreasing, as the economy moves towards high-quality development, the skill requirements for workers are increasing, and the demand for the number of laborers will be relatively weakened.
Improving the skill level of workers and resolving the structural contradictions of mismatched job demands will become the main problems faced by employment.
Yang Ge, an associate researcher at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that in response to the challenge of the decline in the working-age population, it is necessary to build a scientific and reasonable talent system, remove barriers to labor mobility, remove barriers to the rational flow of talents, and mobilize employers and talents. The enthusiasm and initiative of oneself can realize the optimal allocation of talents.
At the same time, it is necessary to broaden the reemployment channels for the unemployed and retirees, and tap the labor supply potential.
Speaking of delayed retirement, Yuan Xin said that taking into account factors such as the increase in average life expectancy, the accelerated trend of population aging, the increase in years of education, and the change in labor structure, the state proposed the principles of small-step adjustment, flexible implementation, classified promotion, and overall planning. , And gradually delay the statutory retirement age.
"In the future, with the advancement of delayed retirement, a large number of older labor with knowledge, experience, and skills can continue to stay in the market, and labor resources will be increased and supplemented."
In Zeng Yuping’s view, as the quality of the population improves, the demographic dividend is gradually shifting to a talent dividend. The advantages of China’s population resources will be effectively brought into play, which will further promote the transformation of economic development mode, the upgrading of industrial structure, and the improvement of total factor productivity, and promote population The economy and society continue to develop in a coordinated and healthy manner.
Reporter: Qiu Haifeng