LR-LREM alliance or not in Paca, strong presence of candidate ministers, union and disunity of the left: the last few weeks have offered voters, before the closing of the submission of lists for the regional elections, Monday, May 17, an anthology political maneuvers and backstage negotiations.
The registered candidates will now be able to concentrate on winning the votes - the official campaign is due to start on May 31 - even if, as with the second round of the municipal elections last year, the health context should greatly affect the campaign on field.
The stakes are not neutral: in addition to the control of important communities and powers extended since the territorial reform carried out by François Hollande, this will be the last ballot before the presidential election of 2022. The results of the various political forces will therefore be analyzed. on the Loup.
Overview.
The National Rally possible winner in Paca
Represented by former minister LR Thierry Mariani, Marine Le Pen's party could well win its first region in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur. An Ipsos poll for France Télévisions and Radio France, published on May 11, places the National Rally (RN) at the top of voting intentions in the first round (39%), ahead of Renaud Muselier (34%) and the EELV-PS- list. PCF (20%). Thierry Mariani is also given the winner in the second round.
Does the latter benefit from the many negotiations at work for several weeks between the outgoing president of the region, Renaud Muselier (Les Républicains), and La République en Marche? These would have contributed to muddying the waters, according to several observers. Especially since the soap opera lasted: the LR-LREM alliance was announced in early May by Prime Minister Jean Castex and then contested by LR leaders. In the end, Renaud Muselier will leave without members of the government or LREM parliamentarians, but with about fifteen "marchers" from the region.
For her part, for a time announced on the LR list, then as leader of an LREM list, Secretary of State Sophie Cluzel will ultimately not be a candidate for the regional elections, the presidential party preferring not to present a list in Paca.
If, officially, it was for LREM to ally with LR in order to block the RN, everything indicates that the maneuver was aimed at fracturing the right, one year before the presidential election, between those advocating a rapprochement of the Republicans with the majority and those wishing on the contrary to assert a very distinct political line.
In Hauts-de-France, five ministers on mission facing the RN… and Xavier Bertrand
The Republic on the march ensured that it wanted to block the National Rally in Paca by allying with the right.
But in Hauts-de-France, another region where the RN could win, it will try to oppose the far-right party by presenting a list made up of government heavyweights, even if it means weakening the right-wing president. outgoing, Xavier Bertrand.
No less than five ministers were sent to the front: the head of the list Laurent Pietraszewski, Secretary of State for Pensions, is surrounded by the Minister of Justice, Eric Dupond-Moretti, the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, Minister for SMEs, Alain Griset, and Minister for Industry, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.
At the beginning of May, an Ipsos poll gave Xavier Bertrand at the top of the regional voting intentions at 35%, ahead of the RN list led by Sébastien Chenu (32%), the left-wing union list of the ecologist Karima Delli at 20% and that of Laurent Pietraszewski at 10%.
Seven other members of the government will be candidates for the regional elections, including five also in Île-de-France: the Minister for Citizenship, Marlène Schiappa, the Minister for Transformation and Public Service, Amélie de Montchalin, the Minister for Housing, Emmanuelle Wargon, the Secretary of State for Priority Education, Nathalie Elimas, and the government spokesperson, Gabriel Attal - but in an ineligible position for the latter.
The Minister Delegate for Relations with Parliament, Marc Fesneau, is a candidate in Center-Val-de-Loire, while the Minister Delegate for Veterans, Geneviève Darrieussecq, is a candidate in New Aquitaine.
Bertrand-Pécresse-Wauquiez: last test on the right before 2022
Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse and Laurent Wauquiez, respectively presidents of the Hauts-de-France, Île-de-France and Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes regions, will be keen to be re-elected to keep their presidential ambitions intact.
All three made safety their main campaign theme.
Officially candidate for the 2022 presidential election, Xavier Bertrand announced that he would retire from political life in the event of failure in the regional elections.
In the same vein, Valérie Pécresse has also made her re-election at the head of her region the condition for a possible candidacy for the Elysee.
To clearly mark their opposition to Emmanuel Macron, both have already ruled out any alliance with La République en Marche in the between-towers.
Finally, if he has not declared himself a candidate for 2022, Laurent Wauquiez cherishes the hope of getting into the race.
The only member of this trio to still be a member of LR, he however saw his image seriously tarnished when he was at the head of the Republicans, a position from which he resigned the day after the European elections, in the spring of 2019. His primary objective, during regional, will therefore obtain a form of rehabilitation by being reelected at the head of his region.
Only then will he be able to consider a return to the forefront and a possible candidacy for the Elysee.
On the left, division as a rule, union as an exception
On March 11, all the left-wing parties in Hauts-de-France were happy to announce their support for the MEP for Europe Ecology-The Greens, Karima Delli.
A union likely to lead to others, elsewhere in France, with a view to regional elections.
Two months later, it is clear that the left has become more illustrated by its ability to break up, the Hauts-de-France being an exception.
Union seemed however possible in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur within the collective "Il est temps", but EELV, the Socialist Party and the Communist Party ended up pushing towards the exit La France insoumise.
Elsewhere, all combinations have been explored. From total disunity as in Île-de-France - four candidates with Julien Bayou (EELV), Audrey Pulvar (PS), Clémentine Autain (LFI / PCF), Nathalie Arthaud (LO) - to union with variable geometry as in Pays de la Loire where EELV and LFI support the former macronist Matthieu Orphelin, while the PS and the PCF are headed by Guillaume Garot, former Minister Delegate for Agri-Food of François Hollande.
These elections will therefore serve as the last match, less than a year before the presidential election, to judge the forces present on the left, in particular between EELV and the PS.
Because for its part, LFI seems to have intentionally withdrawn from the regional with only three top candidates from its ranks, while blowing hot and cold between union in certain regions and open war against environmentalists in various regions. other.
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