• Economic crisis, Confcommercio: collapse in consumption in 2020, over 300 thousand fewer companies

  • Covid.

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  • Confcommercio: consumption in October collapsed to minus 8%

  • Dpcm, Confcommercio study: very serious damage to companies with the drop in consumption

  • Censis: the standard of living worsens for 7.6 million Italians

  • Censis-Accountants: 460 thousand small and medium-sized enterprises at risk of closure

  • Savings, Censis: Italians frightened, liquidity boom and stop on investments

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May 17, 2021Collapse in consumption (1,831 euros per capita in 2020) and increase in savings (+82 billion in 2020) due to uncertainty and loss of income. Confidence is growing in the near future but the pessimists continue to prevail over the optimists; for half of the Italians, the priorities are work and trust. This is what emerges from the Confcommercio-Censis report on the impact of the pandemic on confidence, prospects and consumption and on Italian families. The self-employed are the most affected by the economic effects of the pandemic and the concentration of losses on this category slows the recovery



I

talian spend to increase home comfort

Since the beginning of the Covid-19 emergency, hardware devices (22.8%), Pay TV subscriptions and streaming television platforms (18.8%), installation of faster Internet connections (18.7%) are the purchases more 'stimulated' and almost 18% of families have changed their eating habits looking for higher quality products. For 2021, Italians prefer to spend to increase home comfort: in first place the purchase of technological products (32.9%), followed by household appliances and furniture (31%) and home renovation (28, 2%).



Loss of income, collapse of consumption

The macroeconomic summary - according to the Confcommercio Research Office - first of all provides two evidences: the loss of income, which continues the depressed trend already underway for years due to the well-known productivity problems of our country, and the collapse in consumption which, only in 2020, it reached 1,831 euros each due to the loss of income, the increase in uncertainty and above all the objective absence of consumption opportunities due to various closures and restrictions. A mix of contributing causes that, in fact, increased precautionary savings to an unusual extent: +82 billion euros on average in 2020, of which 66 billion held in liquid form, thus creating a sort of compressed 'spring' for recovery , ready to spring when the mobility restrictions,consumption and sociability will be completely removed.



A scenario on which the prospective assessment we can make for the future strongly depends: a 2021 recovery, but still difficult and certainly insufficient to recover the losses of 2020. Also because, while on disposable income we should recover, as income from work and capital , as consumption of the 1,831 euro loss we will recover only 638, remaining far from the already depressed level of 2019 of about 1,200 euro.


#consumi e #fiducia Investigation with @FonteCensis: the long road to recovery ...

- Confcommercio (@Confcommercio) May 17, 2021


After all, although the confidence of families in the near future is in strong recovery, the pessimists still outweigh the optimists. It should be noted, however, that compared to the sovereign debt crisis of 2021, the position of expectations today is better: if confidence fell exceptionally at the beginning of the pandemic, here the recovery was relatively rapid and this is a sign that, although insufficient, in perspective it is positive and indicates a potential for trust to be exploited.



What can we expect for the future

If the mood is on average good, at least compared to the past, we need to deepen several aspects to understand what we can expect for the future. Meanwhile, not everyone lost during the pandemic: for almost 2 out of 3 respondents nothing has changed in terms of resources set aside together with the income currently received. Then there are those who, for one reason or another, have lost practically nothing during the pandemic, such as public employees and pensioners, while the most affected categories are those of self-employed work (of these only one in five is remained safe).



And it is here that possible interpretations of the future, possible recovery can be found: part of it could come from the unaffected or the guaranteed ones, while the concentration of losses on the most dynamic categories, precisely the independents, could constitute a brake on the recovery because it would limit its intensity. This is why refreshments aimed at these productive categories - especially clothing, culture and leisure, transport, tourism and catering companies - are essential to get to recovery with a vital productive fabric ready to make its part.



'Let's see, therefore - Confcommercio and Censis underline - what could be the drivers from which the recovery in consumption could start in 2021, which in any case we expect moderate: above all technology and the domestic environment, as well as services, of course. As far as goods are concerned, an increase in the family endowment of technology is expected, certainly dictated by smart working, but also by self-produced domestic schedules through platforms and new forms of virtual sociality.



In general, there seems to be a rediscovery of the home as a place that produces well-being and, also thanks to the various incentives for renovations and extraordinary maintenance, the whole house could be affected by an increase in consumer spending '.



Automobile will constitute another pole of attraction for expenditure

The automobile, also for the transition to the electric one, will constitute another pole of attraction for expenditure. This prospective trend finds some confirmation in the behaviors of the recent past: in fact, it is precisely by investigating anti-pandemic behaviors or induced by the various lockdowns that it is clear that a significant fraction of the population has undertaken expenses and purchases to improve their technological equipment in last year.



On the other hand, then, there are the behaviors dictated by the necessity deriving from income restrictions, but these percentages are perfectly consistent with that fraction of families, presumably low-income, belonging to the area of ​​independent work most affected by the restrictions: and it is it was here that we resorted to suspending the payment of mortgage installments or bills or that we tried to obtain a loan for liquidity reasons. Percentages that, in our opinion, must always be read in the light of the concept that the pandemic has hit in a highly heterogeneous way and its damage has been concentrated on some sectors and on some categories.



Food shopping: 17% go hunting for discounts

Insisting on this point, another interesting evidence emerges from a numerical point of view regarding food spending: 65.3% of families have not changed their eating habits, then there are the two blocks, one that has 'worsened' their own conditions and hunts for discounts and also chooses lower quality (17.1%), the other who, in the logic of enhancing the time spent at home, has instead opted for the search for higher quality products, experimenting and innovating ( 17.6%). Looking to the future in the short term, the question of the next holidays cannot be missing, this time exceptionally important because more than with generic confidence it has to do with the intensity of the recovery:if on the one hand it is okay and a rise in intentions to go on vacation was expected - a doubling compared to last April - on the other hand, in addition to being too wide an area of ​​uncertainty, making the comparison with a difficult year but still of recovery like 2010, however, there are still 10 percentage points of subjects who declare they will go on vacation. That then, almost half of those who do not think of going, give up for economic reasons is quite obvious but it contains a nuance that could escape: the uncertainty about the near future does not only concern the health condition but, rather, the prospects of income and employment also because for many, it should not be forgotten, there is the specter of dismissal and a further reduction in income.too large area of ​​uncertainty, comparing with a difficult year but still of recovery like 2010, there are still 10 percentage points of subjects who declare that they will go on vacation. That then, almost half of those who do not think of going, give up for economic reasons is quite obvious but it contains a nuance that could escape: the uncertainty about the near future does not only concern the health condition but, rather, the prospects of income and employment also because for many, it should not be forgotten, there is the specter of dismissal and a further reduction in income.too large area of ​​uncertainty, comparing with a difficult year but still of recovery like 2010, there are still 10 percentage points of subjects who declare that they will go on vacation. That then, almost half of those who do not think of going, give up for economic reasons is quite obvious but it contains a nuance that could escape: the uncertainty about the near future does not only concern the health condition but, rather, the prospects of income and employment also because for many, it should not be forgotten, there is the specter of dismissal and a further reduction in income.almost half of those who do not think of going, give up for economic reasons is quite obvious but it contains a nuance that could escape: the uncertainty about the near future does not only concern the health condition but, rather, the prospects of income and employment also because for many, it should not be forgotten, the specter of dismissal and a further reduction in income lingers.almost half of those who do not think of going, give up for economic reasons is quite obvious but it contains a nuance that could escape: the uncertainty about the near future does not only concern the health condition but, rather, the prospects of income and employment also because for many, it should not be forgotten, the specter of dismissal and a further reduction in income lingers.



Priorities, health

Finally, the question was asked about collective priorities in the current moment of transition from illness to convalescence: 44.9% focus on health as a priority, while the rest - altogether just over 50% - are divided between the fundamental theme of the return to work (36.4%) and that of the recovery of confidence in the future (18.7%), an aspect of fundamental importance to define the intensity of the recovery.



Sangalli: "More robust supports to start again"

'' The pandemic is waning and the conditions are in place to restart safely. Businesses need more normality and certainty to be able to plan their activities. Starting with stronger supports that are yet to come. We need to accelerate to recover the losses and strengthen economic growth that is still too weak '', said Confcommercio president Carlo Sangalli.